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作物前景与粮食形势 - No.3 July 2008









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    作物前景与粮食形势 - 第4期 2008年10月 2008
    预测2008年世界谷物产量将增长4.9%,至创纪录的22.32亿吨。较先前预测有较大幅度提高,原因是过去两个月中主要作物收成高于预期。 根据最新产量预测,2008/09年度全球谷物供求关系有望大为改观。即便考虑到利用量的增幅大于7月份做出的预测,世界谷物库存量仍可能增加8%。多数谷物的国际价格在过去两个月中继续回落,主要原因是2008年收成前景看好,因而2008/09年度供给前景改善,但这也反映了原油价格下跌和世界各经济体金融动荡的影响。尽管2008/09年度全球谷物供给前景改观且国际价格已出现下滑,但粮农组织的最新估算显示世界上仍有36个国家因作物歉收、冲突或动荡、自然灾害及国内高粮价的影响而需要外部援助。当前索马里出现的人道主义灾难规模巨大,形势持续恶化的速度惊人,局面令人极为担忧。
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    作物前景与粮食形势 - 第2期 n 2008年4月 2008
    World cereal production in 2008 is forecast to increase 2.6 percent to a record 2 164 million tonnes. The bulk of the increase is expected to be in wheat following significant expansion in plantings in major producing countries. Coarse grains output is tentatively forecast to remain around the bumper level of last year. Rice production is foreseen to increase slightly reflecting production incentives in several Asian countries. However, much will depend on climatic conditions in the coming month s...
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    作物前景与粮食形势 - 第5期 n 2008年12月 2008
    随着本年度行将收尾,粮农组织的最新估算确认2008年全球谷物产量创下历史最高纪录,足以满足2008/09年度利用量预计增长的需要,还能够使世界库存得到小幅补充。今年产量增长的大部分来自发达国家,而发展中国家产量仅略微有所提高。在发展中国家中,低收入缺粮国的增产幅度相对较大,尤其是那些政府对农业生产给予了?????扶持?的国家...

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