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粮食展望

市场综述












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    Brochure, flyer, fact-sheet
    Brochure
    粮食展望
    市场综述 - 2023年11月
    2024
    粮农组织最新预测显示多数基本食品生产前景看好。但全球粮食生产系统仍易受到来自极端天气事件的冲击以及地缘政治紧张和政策的影响,从而可能打破脆弱的供求平衡,造成粮食商品国际贸易前景看淡并对全球粮食安全带来影响。 《粮食展望》为半年刊,11月号刊发粮农组织对世界主要食品的市场供求趋势研判的市场综述,这些食品为谷物、油料作物、食糖、肉类、奶类和鱼类。《粮食展望》也考查粮食进口费用、海运费率、国际粮食价格及期货市场。粮农组织市场及贸易司在全球信息和预警系统(GIEWS)项下编写和刊行《粮食展望》,发挥提高全球粮食市场透明度的作用。在全球谷物市场方面,《粮食展望》与GIEWS的另一主要季刊《作物前景与粮食形势》保持密切协作。《粮食展望》以英文出版,概要部分还以阿拉伯文、中文、法文、俄文和西班牙文刊出。
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    Book (series)
    High-profile
    粮食展望
    市场概要 — 2020年6月
    2020
    由于新冠病毒疫情的影响,粮食市场在今后很多个月都将继续面临不确定性。随着大多数市场为全球经济出现大幅衰退而有所准备,但与其他产业相比农业粮食产业很可能面对危机表现出更强的抵御力。 《粮食展望》由粮农组织贸易及市场司在全球信息和预警系统(GIEWS)项下出版。该半年刊主要关注的是影响全球粮食和饲料市场的各种动向。每期报告都对各种商品的产量、利用量、贸易量、库存量和价格进行综合评述并做出短期预测,也刊出针对不同议题的专题文章。 《粮食展望》与GIEWS的另一主要刊物《作物前景与粮食形势》密切协作,特别是在涉及谷物的方面。《粮食展望》以英文出版,概要部分还以阿拉伯文、中文、法文、俄文和西班牙刊出。
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    Brochure, flyer, fact-sheet
    High-profile
    粮食展望
    市场综述, 2025年6月
    2025
    《粮食展望》每年出版2期(6月和11月),聚焦全球食品类商品市场动态。粮农组织最新评估表明,全球食品类商品市场前景相对乐观,除食糖外,所有商品的产量和贸易量均有望增长。然而,由于供需平衡微妙,增长对各商品库存恢复的影响各异。全球食品类商品产量仍易受天气影响。此外,持续的地缘政治紧张局势、政策走向的不确定性、以及潜在的报复性贸易措施,都可能影响贸易前景。除市场综述外,每期还包含专题文章和市场指标。2025年6月刊登载了一篇关于高致病性禽流感的经济和贸易影响的专题文章。其他议题还包括:乌克兰战争爆发后贸易流通的变化、肥料市场最新动态、鱼品欺诈的经济诱因,以及国际海运业脱碳对粮食净进口发展中国家的影响。市场指标概览汇总了期货市场、海运运费、粮食进口费用和食品价格指数的最新动态。

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    Food outlook is a biannual publication (June and November) focusing on developments affecting global food commodity markets. FAO’s latest assessments indicate a relatively optimistic outlook for food commodity markets, with production and trade of all commodities, except sugar, anticipated to increase. However, this growth will have different impacts on stock recovery, influenced by the delicate balance between supply and demand. Global food commodity production remains vulnerable to weather conditions. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainties in policy developments, and potential retaliatory actions could negatively affect the trade outlook. In addition to market assessment, each edition contains a set of special features and market indicators. The June 2025 edition offers a feature article on economic impacts and trade implications of high pathogenicity avian influenza. Additional topics, such as changes in the trade flows following the start of the war in Ukraine, fertilizer update, economic drivers of fish fraud, and implications of decarbonization of the international maritime sector for net food-importing developing countries are also discussed. Overview of the market indicators summarizes developments on the futures markets, ocean freight rates, food import bill, and food price indices.
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    Addressing high food price inflation for food security and nutrition
    2025
    While some progress and recovery have been made in recent years, the world is still above pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels and far from eradicating hunger and food insecurity by 2030 (SDG Target 2.1). Similarly, despite some progress in the global nutrition targets, the world is not on track to achieve SDG Target 2.2. Among other factors, persistent food price inflation has slowed this momentum.The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 highlights how elevated inflation in many countries has undermined purchasing power and, especially among low-income populations, access to healthy diets. The report documents how high food price inflation is associated with increases in food insecurity and child malnutrition. Vulnerable groups, including low-income households, women, and rural communities, can be particularly affected by food price inflation, risking setbacks in the fight against hunger and malnutrition.In response to these challenges and to prevent future price shocks, the report examines policy measures adopted by countries, and outlines what is necessary going forwards. It stresses the importance of coherent implementation of fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize markets, promote open and resilient trade, and protect vulnerable populations. Additionally, it calls for better data systems and sustained investment in resilient agrifood systems to build long-term food security and nutrition. These coordinated actions are vital to reignite progress towards ending hunger and malnutrition by 2030.