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Book (stand-alone)An assessment of the impact of increasing wheat self-sufficiency and promoting cash-transfer subsidies for consumers in Egypt: A multi-market model 2006
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No results found.Wheat is central to the government of Egypts food security policy which is based on increasing self-sufficiency in wheat on the one hand and subsidizing bread for consumers on the other hand. This paper uses a multi-market approach to assess the impact of increased self-sufficiency in wheat and a switch to a cash-transfer subsidy on cropping patterns, food consumption, production, input use, and income. The findings show that raising self-sufficiency in wheat would reduce reliance on imports but would also adversely affect other sectors, in particular livestock. At full self-sufficiency in wheat, berseem the main animal feed would nearly vanish, with negative repercussions for livestock production. The simulations also show that a move to a cash transfer subsidy system would improve targeting of the poor and eliminate distortions on the consumption side. Finally, under the current wheat policy an increase in the world price of wheat would intensify the adverse consequences of both self -sufficiency and consumer subsidies at the agricultural sector level and economy wide. -
Book (series)An assessment of the impact of higher yields for maize, soybean and cassava in Indonesia: A multi-market model approach 2007
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No results found.The changing structure of food demand will generate pressure to diversify away from cereals. It is therefore important that cereal productivity increases be maintained to free land as well as to meet the rising demand for animal feed. This study uses a multi-market model to assess the impact of yield increases for maize, soybean and cassava on cropping patterns, prices, incomes, and other variables of interest to policy makers. Raising maize yield reduces imports and has small but positive side- effects in terms of output and consumption of other commodities and in terms of household’s welfare. Raising maize yields and then removing rice tariffs adds a large increase in soybean output and rice imports to the maize yield increase scenario. The impact on household income is modest with middle and bottom income households more affected – and more so in Java. Livestock production and consumption rise strongly and purchasing power of households is much improved. Raising maize, cassava and so ybean yields stimulates production of these crops and reduces imports in particular of maize and cassava but not of soybeans. Rice imports also fall strongly. Household welfare is positively affected but by little. Combining maize, cassava and soybean yield increases with a rice tariff elimination has a particularly pronounced effect on soybean production. Livestock production and consumption grow strongly. Rice imports fall very sharply as do maize imports. Household incomes generally fall but the effect is small. Purchasing power on the other hand increases significantly. -
DocumentAn Assessment of the Impact of Rice Tariff Policy in Indonesia: A Multi-Market Model Approach 2007
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No results found.Rice is of key importance to Indonesia’s national and household level food security. The choice of tariff policy has important implications for consumers and producers with policy makers having to decide between the trade-offs implied for the various stakeholders. In this study we use a multi-market model to assess the impact of hypothetical rice tariff changes on household welfare and other variables of interest to rice policy-makers. A reduction in the rice tariff from 30 to 0% reduces rice su pply and wheat demand and stimulates rice demand and soybean supply. Rice imports increase from 0.8 to 2 million tons. Rural households except for the Java-top income group, see incomes fall. In terms of purchasing power all households gain very significantly. Eliminating rice tariffs increases crop diversification and more so in those areas and for those income groups which started off least diversified. It is clear that the higher retail rice price resulting from a 30% ad-valorem tariff rate i mposes significant cost on the 90% of Indonesian households, including most of the very poor households, who are net rice buyers. The implied income gains appear relatively modest but do accrue to middle and poorer households especially in Java. On the other hand an increase in the tariff from 30 to 50% eliminates rice imports, reduces soybean output and stimulates wheat demand. Rural households, except for the Java-top income group, see incomes rise although the effect is relatively modest. In terms of purchasing power households are all worse off.
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