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Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #1, 13 February 2024

Monthly report on food price trends











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    International prices of wheat fell again in January, as the short-term outlook for global supplies continued to improve, in particular following latest estimates of larger 2022 outputs in Australia and the Russian Federation than earlier expected. By contrast, international coarse grain prices firmed marginally, mostly reflecting the continued strong demand for maize supplies from Brazil. For rice, tighter availabilities, strong local demand in some Asian exporting countries and exchange rate movements increased international prices at an accelerated pace in January. FAO’s analysis of domestic staple food prices indicates that significantly high price levels persisted in December 2022 and January 2023, despite some evidence of easing from 2022 peaks for selected countries, including parts of Southern Africa and West Africa. Food access constraints will likely continue in the near term, amid fragile social and economic conditions in several areas, especially in the Horn of Africa. Developments in the global market, along with other concurrent shocks, including adverse weather events, conflicts and macroeconomic challenges such as currency weaknesses, will continue to influence domestic staple food price trends.
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    International prices of all major cereals declined in February 2024. Ample supplies and strong competition among exporters underpinned a decline in wheat and maize prices. International rice prices also dropped as, aside from Indonesian purchases, fresh import demand remained broadly low and new crop harvests began in some exporting countries.In most countries monitored by FAO, domestic staple food prices remained high in February 2024. Extreme weather events, conflicts and insecurity have remained key underlying drivers of high prices. Weak national currencies are limiting pass‑through effects to domestic markets from the declines in international cereal prices. Shipping disruptions in the Panama Canal and the Red Sea could create additional inflationary pressures on domestic food markets in the short term through higher food import costs.
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    Global wheat and maize prices continued to increase in October 2024, influenced by unfavourable weather concerns in some main producing areas, transport disruptions and strong demand. By contrast, international rice prices declined, amid expectations of increased competition among exporters. FAO’s analysis of the latest available domestic food price data showed prices were below year-earlier levels, in September and October 2024, in parts of Central America and Far East Asia, owing to increased seasonal availability from harvests. Staple food prices remained high year-on-year in parts of East Africa, Southern Africa and South America due to tight domestic supplies, macroeconomic challenges and sustained demand. In West Africa, coarse grain prices hit new record highs in several markets as recent widespread flooding impeded the functioning of markets, further exacerbating existing food access challenges.

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