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GLOBAL
INFORMATION AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
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SPECIAL REPORT
EL NINO’S IMPACT ON CROP PRODUCTION IN LATIN AMERICA
25 November 1997
OVERVIEW
Crop production in Latin America is particularly vulnerable to the effects
of El Niño. The phenomenon’s early manifestations in 1997 have affected
the first season cereal and bean crops in most Central American and Caribbean
countries. On average, losses for 1997 crops in the sub-region are estimated
at about between 15 and 20 percent as compared with the previous year,
but losses in several countries have been substantially higher. The second
season crops, currently being harvested, have been affected first by excessive
rains in September, typical of the hurricane season, and since then by
abnormally dry weather associated with El Niño. Prospects of recovery
from previously incurred losses are almost nil for most countries. In addition,
a serious risk exists for the planting of the 1998 first season cereal
crops, beginning in March, should dry weather extend to March/April.
In South America, in the Andean countries, planting of the 1998 main
season crops is underway. The bulk of the 1997 cereal crops in these countries
had been collected when El Niño’s early effects were felt. In the
southern areas of the sub-region, however, plantings of the 1997 wheat
crop were significantly reduced in the main producing countries because
of excess rainfall. Harvesting is presently underway while sowing of the
1998 maize crop has started. For the sub-region as a whole, precipitation
and temperature anomalies prevail and constitute a threat to the crops.
The outcome will be largely determined by the development of El Niño
phenomenon whose strongest impact is expected in the next few months.
The situation by sub-region is as follows:
CENTRAL AMERICA (INCLUDING
THE CARIBBEAN)
Besides the 1997/98 first season maize crop losses, caused by El Niño’s
early effects, considerable damage has been also incurred to the paddy
and bean crops. Growing conditions have been predominantly dry for the
1997/98 second season crops, and drier than normal conditions, particularly
for Central American countries, are anticipated in the months ahead which
could seriously jeopardize planting of the 1998 first season cereal crops.
Costa Rica
Light rains in early November benefited the developing crops which
have been affected by dry weather since September. The only crop with chances
of recovering from first season losses would be beans, a staple in the
country’s diet, as the bulk of the annual output comes from the second
season crop; even then, however, production would not be enough to meet
domestic requirements. The risk of forest fires is likely to increase should
dry weather persist. The fishery sector continues to be affected by the
abnormally high sea temperatures. The Government is taking action to protect
the agriculture, livestock and fishery sectors from a worse El Niño-related
impact expected in the coming months.
Cuba
Irregular and ill-distributed rains, combined with elevated temperatures
have been reported in the last two months, but with no relevant effect
on crops. Abnormally wet conditions due to El Niño are expected
in the months ahead. Intensive precipitation, a consequence too of the
reactivated hurricane season, is expected in the next few weeks, particularly
in the western parts of the country, and to a lesser extent in the centre
and in the east. Harvesting of the sugar cane crop is starting earlier
than usual in order to avoid part of the effects of El Niño.
Dominican Republic
Well-distributed normal rains since late September, particularly abundant
in the south and south-western areas, typical of the hurricane season,
have brought much needed moisture relief to the rainfed crops and contributed
to replenish water reservoirs, some of them at critically low levels, for
planting of the main irrigated paddy crop to be started in December. More
rains are forecast in the weeks ahead, specially in the area from Montecristi
in the north-west to Samaná in the north-east. Crops and pastures
have been affected by almost 9 months of dry weather attributed to El Niño-related
effects. The Government is involved in the purchase and sale of agricultural
food items. Price increases have been reported in some markets during the
prolonged dry period.
El Salvador
Irregular and ill-distributed rains in the first half of October, and dry
weather since then, have been reported, but with no effect so far on the
developing crops. Only a modest recovery is expected from the heavy losses
(125 000 tons) incurred to the first season maize crop, the main cereal.
Supplies and prices of maize and other basic grains have, however, remained
stable due to the prompt action taken by the Government in the management
of strategic reserves and to increase imports. Technical assistance, combined
with financial concessions of various types, as part of El Niño
contingency plans, have been provided through the Ministry of Agriculture
and other public institutions to the affected rural population.
Guatemala
Hurricane rains and heavy flooding in late September in the south-central
parts of the country and dry weather since then all over the country continue
to affect the developing second season cereal and bean crops. Only a slight
chance exists for a partial recovery from first season crop losses (about
200 000 tons of maize). To cope with the worst impact from the phenomenon
which is expected in the months ahead, various Ministries and institutions
are adopting protective and emergency measures which include the financing
of small irrigation systems, improvements of rural roads, control of strategic
grain reserves, improvement in the dissemination of weather information,
and other precautions.
Haiti
Normal rains have resumed in the past few months and seasonal storms are
expected in the weeks ahead. Some recovery from the second season crops,
particularly the bean crop, is expected; however, this will not make up
for the heavy losses incurred to the first season crops, severely affected
by a six-month drought which caused, on a conservative basis, a 30 to 40
percent reduction from last year’s cereal outputs. The food supply situation
remains tight and international assistance is being provided.
Honduras
Dry weather prevails, particularly in the southern areas of Choluteca,
Valle and Francisco de Morazán and Paraíso, which were already
seriously affected by El Niño’s early impact and where a state of
emergency has been recently declared. However, no significant effect on
the crops is expected at a national level as the localized losses would
be more than offset by production increases elsewhere, principally in the
main producing areas of the country. In order to cope with the dry conditions
expected in the months ahead, the Government has initiated a series of
protective measures that include the construction of small irrigation systems
and temporary reservoirs, the drilling of wells and sale of water pumps.
Mexico
Despite damage to rainfed crops in the central maize growing belt, caused
by 6 to 8 weeks of dry weather, and recent localized damage in the south-western
areas due to hurricane rains and flooding, a bumper spring/summer maize
crop is forecast. Other crops such as coffee, coconut and lemon plantations
were also affected by the rains. The Government declared a state of emergency
in the affected areas and assistance was subsequently provided. Present
dry weather is benefiting maize harvesting operations. With respect to
the wheat crop, storm rains in September helped fill reservoirs to adequate
levels thus helping planting of the 1997/98 wheat crop which is currently
underway. Light to moderate rain in October benefited the coarse grain
crops grown in the north-eastern states, which have been affected by dry
weather for the last 4 years. Satisfactory outputs are anticipated.
Nicaragua
A recently-completed FAO/WFP Mission confirmed the extent of the damage
caused to first season crops by El Niño-related drought in some
27 rural municipalities, mostly on the Pacific coast. Maize was heavily
affected and a sharp drop in output is estimated. Normal rains resumed
in October, benefiting the developing second season crops, currently being
harvested; however, prospects of recovery from first season crop losses
are poor, as production increases in the non-affected areas and enlarged
plantings in the second season and those anticipated in the third season
("apante") will probably not be sufficient to offset the losses incurred.
Panama
Light rains around mid-October benefited standing crops but were too late
for any significant recovery. The main affected crops include paddy, maize,
beans and roots. The fishery sector has been also affected and a decline
in the fish catch is reported. Pastures have also suffered and a high mortality
of livestock is reported. A request for international assistance has been
recently made. Predictions point to dry weather in the months ahead.
Belize
No serious impact on crops has been so far reported.
SOUTH AMERICA
In the southern areas of the sub-region, harvesting of the 1997 wheat crop
is underway. Unseasonably heavy rains in October have affected the crop
in Brazil as well as in parts of Argentina but the situation there has
improved in November. Planting of the 1997/98 main season coarse grain
crops in some of the Andean countries has started. The outcome of these
crops will be largely determined by the development of El Niño whose
strongest impact is expected from now on for the next few months. In the
north-western parts of the sub-region, high temperatures and dry weather
prevail and are forecast to continue for the next few months. If this forecast
materializes, planting of the 1998 crops to be started from March would
be affected.
Argentina
Drier weather in some parts in early November benefited harvesting of the
1997 wheat crop and 1997/98 maize crop plantings. Wheat harvesting and
maize planting operations were delayed by excessive rains in October attributed
to the El Niño phenomenon. Localized flooding in northern Argentina
has been reported. The crops have been spared of major damage so far, but
there is a risk of a fungus outbreak for wheat and a reduction in the area
planted to maize should the excessive rains resume, as they are presently
forecast. Early predictions point to a decline in wheat production from
last year’s record, mainly as a consequence of reduced plantings ( from
7 to 6 million hectares) associated with the early effects of El Niño,
but output should nevertheless remain above average.
Bolivia
In September, torrential rains and flooding, attributed to El Niño,
in the south-western department of Sucre resulted in some casualties and
heavy damage to infrastructure. A state of emergency for the affected area
was declared by the Government. Normal weather conditions in October favoured
planting of the 1998 main season cereal crops. These crops could be, however,
seriously threatened by El Niño as latest forecasts indicate that
by year’s end there could be heavy flooding in the east and serious drought
in the high plateaux of the country. These anomalies are also forecast
to extend into next year. Protective measures are being taken by the Government.
Brazil
Torrential rains and flooding for the last five weeks in southern Brazil,
particularly in the major producing states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana,
have seriously affected the 1997 wheat crop and delayed planting of the
1998 maize crop. The rains are attributed to El Niño and more rains
are forecast in the months ahead, which could present a serious threat
to the developing maize crop. Major coffee growing south-central states
of Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Sao Paolo, Rio Janeiro and Spirito
Santo, which had been previously affected by prolonged dry weather, have
benefited from light to moderate rains in October. The north-east of Brazil
is beginning to feel the effects related to El Niño. Below-normal
rains have been reported in the last few weeks and drier weather is forecast
in the months ahead. Technical advice is given by the Government to the
rural population on how to cope with the effects of El Niño (e.g.,
use of alternative crops, dissemination of weather forecasts and mapping
of risk zones, information on best time for planting, etc.).
Chile
Growing conditions are adequate for the 1997 wheat crop, about to be harvested,
as well as for the 1998 maize crop, currently being planted, despite torrential
rains and some localized flooding in late September, particularly in the
north of the country, which caused relative damage to crops. In October,
ocean surface temperatures showed a tendency to decrease; however, more
abundant rains, attributed to El Niño, are forecast in the next
few months for the northern areas, which could affect horticultural crops
and the important foreign exchange earning fruit plantations. The cereal
crops grown in the central regions of the country (from Region V through
VIII), are also threatened by the intensive rains which are forecast through
March.
Colombia
Light rains across most regions in the second half of October, the result
of the reactivation of the hurricane season, brought relief after six weeks
of abnormally low precipitation, particularly in the north-west of the
country. Fruits and vegetables benefited from the rains, but the outlook
is poor for cereals, particularly maize, and cash crops as abnormal weather
conditions are forecast to persist in the months ahead. In addition, some
institutions in the agricultural sector are concerned about the availability
of cereal seeds for planting in March/April in 1998. The Government is
actively engaged in providing technical advice to farmers on how to mitigate
the impact of El Niño and is stressing the need to build up seed
stocks. The quality of the coffee crop is also affected, as well as the
condition of pastures. Some provinces are reporting a decrease in milk
production. Forest fires continue to be reported in the Cundinamarca, the
south-western Nariño areas and around the capital.
Ecuador
Intensive rainfall is reported all along the Equatorian coast, from Esmeraldas
in the north to the province of Guayas in the south. Some areas have also
been affected by high tides. A state of emergency has been declared in
some areas and international assistance is being provided. Localized damage
is reported to sugar plantations and the important banana crop. Planting
of the 1998 maize crop, the main cereal, which is currently underway, has
been so far spared any major damage. Some localized flooding of paddy crops
is reported. A contingency plan has been prepared by the Government to
help the population cope with the
potentially adverse effects of El Niño, which are forecast for
December onwards. This includes technical advice to farmers on fieldwork
protective measures and the use of alternative crops, public works such
as the cleaning of canals and country roads, the strengthening of bridges,
and the repair of the sewage system in some municipalities. Information
has been disseminated on preventive health and sanitary measures all over
the country.
Peru
The abnormally high sea surface temperatures caused by El Niño showed
a tendency to decline in some sections of the southern coasts in October.
The agricultural sector has not been seriously affected so far, as the
bulk of the 1997 main season cereal crops had been collected when the early
effects of El Niño became manifest. However, the outcome of the
1998 crops, currently being planted, will criticaly depend on the development
of El Niño. The Government continues to be actively engaged in the
programme of preventive and emergency measures at national, regional and
local levels, in anticipation of a worse impact in the next months as indicated
in latest weather forecasts. In the north, where most of the irrigated
paddy crop is grown, intensive precipitation has been reported and further
abundant rains are forecast. Public works are being carried out, which
include the cleaning and repair of canals, control of river banks, and
other infrastructure repair works. In the south and the highlands, where
drought is anticipated, a programme for the drilling of water wells has
been initiated. Risk maps of the areas likely to be affected and educational
material, combined with community awareness campaigns, have been prepared
and distributed.
Venezuela
Light rains since late October, the consequence of the reactivated hurricane
season, ended a six-week period of significant dryness in some areas, particularly
in the north-west. Elsewhere in the country, weather conditions continue
to favour planting of the 1997/98 paddy crop and fieldwork operations of
the developing maize crop, currently being harvested. Growing conditions
are also good for vegetables, fruit and roots. The coastal and some central
areas should benefit from normal conditions in the months ahead, while
dry conditions and elevated temperatures are forecast in the south-eastern
parts of the country, but no serious threat to the crops is being posed
so far.
| This report is prepared on the responsibility of the FAO
Secretariat with information from official and unofficial sources. Since
conditions may change rapidly, please contact Mr. Abdur Rashid, Chief,
ESCG, FAO, (Telex 610181 FAO I; Fax: 0039-6-5705-4495, E-Mail (INTERNET):
[email protected]) for further information
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