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Contents

Figures

Tables

PREFACE

TECHNICAL NOTES ON SUPPLY, DEMAND AND BALANCES

THE WORLD FERTILIZER OUTLOOK

SUPPLY

DEMAND

SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES

ANNEXES

1. World and regional nitrogen supply, demand and balance 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes N)

2. World and regional phosphorus supply, demand and balance 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes P_2O_5)

3. World and regional potassium supply, demand and balance 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes K_2O)

4. Regional classification of countries and territories

Figures

Figure 1. World capacity for producing (a) ammonia, (b) phosphoric acid and (c) potash, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)

Figure 2. World supply of (a) ammonia, (b) phosphoric acid and (c) potash, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)

Figure 3. World demand for (a) nitrogen, (b) phosphorus and (c) potassium, for fertilizer use, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)

Figure 4. World demand for (a) nitrogen, (b) phosphorus (phosphoric acid based) and (c) potassium, for other uses, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)

Figure 5. Potential world balance of (a) nitrogen, (b) phosphorus and (c) potassium, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)

Figure 6. Potential balance of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium in 2022, by region (thousand tonnes)

Tables

Table 1. World capacity for producing ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)

Table 2. World supply of ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)

Table 3. World demand for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium for fertilizer use, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)

Table 4. World demand for nitrogen, phosphorus (phosphoric acid based) and potassium for other uses, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)

Table 5. Potential world balance of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes)

Preface

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) periodically hosts the Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group meeting, to review the medium-term supply and demand prospects for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers and provide world and regional forecasts. The latest meeting of the Expert Group took place on 10-12 September 2018 in Rome, Italy, to prepare forecasts for the period 2017-2022. The results of this meeting are presented in this report.

The Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group currently comprises representatives of:

» The Fertiliser Association of India (FAI)

» Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

» International Fertilizer Association (IFA)

» International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC)

» The Fertilizer Institute (TFI)

The contributions made by the members of the Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group are gratefully acknowledged.

Francesco Tubiello, Javier Montero-Serrano and Fabio Mozillo, from the FAO Statistics Division, provided support by preparing the FAO historical statistics from FAOSTAT and providing assistance during the meeting. This final report was prepared by Debra Turner, FAO Agricultural Officer, under the supervision of Caterina Batello, former FAO Senior Agricultural Officer, and Hans Dreyer, Director of FAO Plant Production and Protection Division, had the overall direction of this publication. Final editing of the document was undertaken by Teodardo Calles, FAO Agricultural Officer.

The forecast data presented in this report are based on the expert views of the different organizations participating in the 2018 Fertilizer Outlook Expert Group meeting. They are not necessarily fully consistent with the FAO historical statistics available in FAOSTAT. The fertilizers data by nutrient available in FAOSTAT can be accessed at http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RFN and compared with the data for 2016 considered in this report as starting point for the world and regional forecasts.

Technical notes on supply, demand and balances

In this report, fertilizers data are provided with respect to the three primary plant nutrients: nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K). Data related to each of these nutrients are all expressed in the same units, as follows:

» Nitrogen and ammonia: expressed as N

» Phosphorus and phosphoric acid: expressed as P_2O_5

» Potassium and potash: expressed as K_2O

The fertilizer demand and supply data refer to calendar years. Definitions of the terms used:

Capacity: nameplate capacity.

Supply: effective capacity, representing the maximum achievable production. Supply is computed from the “nameplate capacity” (theoretical capacity), multiplied by the operating rate projected for the period under consideration. For new plants, a ramp up of the operating rates was established for the first 3 years of operation. Nameplate capacity operating rates and demand for fertilizers vary from year to year. In the case of phosphorus, the supply data in this report are restricted to phosphoric acid (H_3PO_4).

Demand: it can be split into fertilizer use and other uses.

Demand for fertilizer use is the use of fertilizer at a given point in time. In the case of phosphorus, fertilizer demand is subdivided in this report into phosphoric acid based fertilizer demand and non-phosphoric acid fertilizer demand. The non-phosphoric acid fertilizer demand includes phosphorus in single super phosphate, rock phosphate, etc.

Demand for other uses refers to consumption for non-fertilizer use, losses and unallocated demand. In this report it refers to all forms of demand excluding fertilizer and includes the use of nutrients (N, P or K) that are recovered as by-product from industrial processes and then used as fertilizer.

Potential balance: is the difference between supply and total demand (fertilizer demand plus other uses demand). Regional balance is a medium-term indicator of potential changes in fertilizer nutrient demand and supply in the region.

SUPPLY

Forecasts of world capacity for producing ammonia, phosphoric acid and potash, up to 2022, are provided in table 1 (and figure 1). Forecasts of world supply are provided in table 2 (and figure 2). Regional and sub-regional forecasts are provided in annexes 1, 2 and 3.

DEMAND

Demand for fertilizer use

Forecasts of world demand for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium for fertilizer use, up to 2022, are provided in table 3 (and figure 3). Regional and sub-regional forecasts are provided in annexes 1, 2 and 3.

Demand for other uses

Forecasts of world demand for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium for other uses, up to 2022, are provided in table 4 (and figure 4). Regional and sub-regional forecasts are provided in annexes 1, 2 and 3.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES

The potential balance of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium is calculated as maximum achievable production (supply) minus total demand (including fertilizer and other uses):

Potential balance = supply – (fertilizer uses + other uses demand) where supply of each nutrient refers to:

» Ammonia, for nitrogen

» Phosphoric acid, for phosphorus

» Potash, for potassium

Given that phosphorus supply data in this report are restricted to phosphoric acid (H_3PO_4), the demand considered in the balance is also restricted to phosphoric acid-based fertilizer demand. These data are available in annex 2.

Unforeseeable factors, such as feedstock and/or raw material limitations, logistical problems, unscheduled shut down due to technical reasons, natural calamities (for example, earthquakes, mine flooding) are not considered in the balance. Demand projections are based on agronomic considerations (for example, cropped area and application rate of fertilizer), market feedback, estimates by industry associations, growth models, econometric models and expert judgement.

Forecasts of potential world balances of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, up to 2022, are provided in table 5. Regional and sub-regional forecasts are provided in annexes 1, 2 and 3. Figure 5 indicates the potential balances by region in 2022, the final year of the forecast period.

Annex 1

World and regional nitrogen supply, demand and balance 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes N)

Annex 2

World and regional phosphorus supply, demand and balance 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes P_2O_5)

Annex 3

World and regional potassium supply, demand and balance 2016-2022 (thousand tonnes K_2O)

Annex 4

Regional classification of countries and territories