Long-Term Scenarios of Livestock-Crop-Land Use Interactions in Developing Countries













Table of Contents


by
A.F. Bouwman
Senior Researcher, Global Emissions from Agriculture
National Institute of Public Health and the Environment
Bilthoven, the Netherlands

FAO LAND AND WATER BULLETIN 6

NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT, THE NETHERLANDS (RIVM)

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Rome, 1997

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

M-08
ISBN 92-5-103985-2

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Director, Information Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy.

© FAO 1997

The cover map shows the average temperature difference for winter months (December to February) in the range from -3ºC to 15ºC, comparing the results at the end of a United Kingdom Meteorological Office General Circulation Model (GCM) transient climate change experiment with the results obtained in a control experiment.

This electronic document has been scanned using optical character recognition (OCR) software and careful manual recorrection. Even if the quality of digitalisation is high, the FAO declines all responsibility for any discrepancies that may exist between the present document and its original printed version.


Table of Contents


Preface

Acknowledgements

SUMMARY

1. GENERAL INTRODUCTION

2. DATA USED AND METHODOLOGY

Aggregation
Population scenario
Demand

Food demand
Feed demand
Other uses
Domestic demand

Supply

Self-sufficiency ratios and trade
Regional agricultural production
Crop yields and animal production
Irrigated and rainfed cropped areas
Animal populations and harvested areas

Land use

Cropping intensity and arable land
Fertilizer use

Exceptions to the scenario rules
Atmospheric emissions associated with production

3. LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

Per caput demand for livestock products
Total demand and supply
Scenarios of livestock production

General aspects
Meat production
Egg production
Milk production

Animal populations

Cattle
Pigs
Poultry
Sheep and goats
Camels

4. FEED DEMAND

Feed intensity of livestock production
Scenarios of feed intensity

5. CROP PRODUCTION

Per caput demand for food crops

Cereals
Pulses
Starchy foods
Oil crops
Sugar
Other crops

Total demand and supply

Cereals
Pulses
Starchy foods
Oil crops
Sugar cane and beet

Scenarios of crop yields

General aspects
Cereals
Pulses
Starchy foods
Sugar crops
Oil crops and other crops

Harvested areas

Cereals
Pulses
Starchy foods
Sugar crops
Oil crops and other crops
Total harvested area

6. FERTILIZER USE

Fertilizer intensity of crop production
Scenarios of fertilizer intensity
Scenarios of fertilizer use

7. ARABLE LAND

Irrigated land
Cropping intensity
Arable land
Arable land for different cereal feed scenarios

8. EMISSIONS

Emissions from animal waste
Emissions from synthetic fertilizer use
Emissions from enteric fermentation
Emissions from wetland rice cultivation

9. PRESSURES ON AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Pressures on fresh water
Pressures on land resources
Pressures on the environment

Livestock production
Synthetic fertilizers

10. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

References

Appendixes

Appendix 1
Appendix 2
Appendix 3
Appendix 4
Appendix 5
Appendix 6
Appendix 7
Appendix 8
Appendix 9
Appendix 10
Appendix 11
Appendix 12
Appendix 13
Appendix 14
Appendix 15
Appendix 16
Appendix 17
Appendix 18
Appendix 19
Appendix 20
Appendix 21
Appendix 22