INTRODUCTION

1. This note informs the Commission about the progress of the Forestry Outlook Study for Africa (FOSA), which was proposed to and endorsed by African countries at the 11th Session of the African Forestry and Wildlife Commission (AFWC), held in Dakar, Senegal, in April 1998.

2. While endorsing the undertaking of FOSA, the AFWC recommended that FOSA should: a) ensure a practical orientation and place forestry in the context of macro-level social and economic developments and of changes in other sectors linked to forestry; b) make maximum use of Africa's institutions and experts and ensure close collaboration with existing sub-regional institutions active in forestry; and c) arrange for adequate consultation with all partners and organize workshops as appropriate for this purpose. The AFWC also requested member governments to give their full support to this initiative and to facilitate participation by local communities, the private sector, NGOs, development partners and their projects; and encouraged governments to share information and documentation with FAO regarding studies which are relevant to the outlook study.

BACKGROUND ON FOSA

PURPOSE AND SCOPE

3. The Forestry Outlook Study for Africa is the most recent study in FAO's long-standing series of regional forestry outlook studies. It is a process of discussion and analysis of the forestry sector in Africa that began in 1998 and will continue until mid-2002.

4. FOSA will analyse the status, trends and driving forces shaping African forestry; provide a vision of the sector in the region to the year 2020; and identify policies, programme and investment options that will help African countries realize the forestry sector's potential to contribute to their sustainable development. The objectives of FOSA include assisting countries in their efforts to incorporate a long-term vision into their planning horizons, to place forestry into a larger economic and social context, to view national forestry developments in a regional perspective, and to stimulate sound investment in the forestry sector.

5. FAO will draw upon experience, in particular the recently completed Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study, which took a more comprehensive approach to the analysis of the forest sector than had been done by previous regional outlook studies. FOSA, however, has three new features: it will rely heavily on collaboration with major lending institutions active in the region; it will incorporate efforts to improve the information base upon which the analyses depend; and it will have a strong sub-regional emphasis.

6. The study will cover all continental and island African countries. For the purpose of the study, the region has been divided into five sub-regions: North, West, Central, East and Southern Africa (see Appendix 1 for the list of countries within each sub-region). This sub-regional approach adopted by FOSA will help capture the differences within the region with regard to social and economic factors, natural resources, institutional arrangements and policies concerning forestry and related sectors, all of which are expected to influence the future direction of the sector's development.

PARTNERS

7. While FAO is responsible for the co-ordination of FOSA, it will rely upon strong partnerships with all African nations, regional and international development banks, sub-regional intergovernmental organizations, research groups, NGOs and the private sector.

8. An important feature of FOSA is its emphasis on the active participation of experts and institutions in Africa. All countries of the region have been invited to help set the agenda for FOSA, participate in its implementation, and share its analysis and results. FOSA National Focal Points identified by the African countries (see under Management and Coordination Arrangements) will ensure that not only governments, but also the private sector and civil society become involved.

9. A number of other partners have joined in the implementation of FOSA. The African Development Bank, the European Community and the World Bank are already active partners. The African Development Bank is providing major financial and technical support to FOSA. The European Community is providing assistance in data collection and analysis. The World Bank has pledged support for a study on the institutional framework for forest management in Africa. Linkages are being explored with the African Timber Organization, the Economic Commission for Africa, the United Nations Environment Programme and other regional and international organizations with mandates related to the forestry sector. Close association is sought with sub-regional organizations (e.g., the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS); the Southern African Development Community (SADC); and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)). Their participation would help FOSA benefit from their ongoing efforts, provide a broader framework for analysing the various issues, and lend support for activities in the follow-up to FOSA. NGO and private sector partners are also sought.

ACTIVITIES

10. FOSA is an integrated process involving the synthesis and consolidation of inputs from different sources. Baseline studies on (a) socio-economic features of Africa and (b) forest cover and land use in Africa form the starting point, giving an overview of the situation and providing an essential statistical basis for use at the national, sub-regional and regional levels. One of the most critical inputs for FOSA will be the country outlook papers. These, prepared through consultation at the national level involving all the key sectors and stakeholders, will provide an analysis of the future direction of change and project how the forestry sector may look in the year 2020. Further, a number of thematic papers on selected topics, including one on forestry institutions in Africa supported by the World Bank, will provide sub-regional and regional overviews of key issues. The country outlook papers and the thematic papers will be used to prepare five sub-regional outlook reports, which in turn will form the basis for the preparation of the regional outlook report. The schedule for these activities is provided in Appendix 2.

FOSA'S MAIN PRODUCTS AND REPORTING TO THE AFWC

11. FOSA's main products will be six reports: the regional overview document and the five sub-regional outlook reports. The sub-regional outlook reports will provide a view of the forestry sector today, analyse the effect of factors driving change in the sector, indicate policy and programme options for affecting the direction of forestry, provide a view of the sector in the year 2020, and examine investment opportunities.

12. The background, country outlook, and thematic papers will make up the working documents produced by FOSA.

13. The regional report and the five sub-regional reports will be presented to the African Forestry and Wildlife Commission for discussion and endorsement at its 13^th Session in 2002. The regional report and the sub-regional report for North Africa will be presented to the 15^th Session of the Near East Forestry Commission in 2002.

PROGRESS TO DATE

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

14. The first activities of the outlook study relate to efforts to strengthen the forestry information base, which is needed for policy formulation and sector planning in Africa and which will be useful for FOSA analyses. The emphasis is on compiling and making accessible information that already exists and on encouraging the collection of new data. Activities have been supported by the European Community through a project funded from 1998 until 2000.¹

15. Four sub-regional workshops on forestry statistics have been held in conjunction with this effort: in Kenya for East African countries/IGAD members (October 1998), Zimbabwe for Southern African countries/SADC members (December 1998), Gabon for Central African countries/ATO members (September 1999), and C�te d'Ivoire for West African countries/CILSS members (December 1999). These meetings discussed the status of data collection and reviewed data on five key areas of forestry: forest resources, forest plantations, trees outside forests, wood products, and non-wood forest products.

16. Following the meetings, about 100 detailed studies in these five subject areas have been carried out by national experts throughout Africa. These studies have both collated available data and collected new data. In addition, a parallel effort has been made through this project to improve the methodologies for data collection and analysis. Pilot studies are underway in Uganda and Zimbabwe to develop or improve methodologies for data collection in the five subject areas.

17. The data collection and analyses efforts have provided two major benefits for the Forestry Outlook Study for Africa: 1) a stronger information base upon which the outlook analyses can draw; and 2) an extensive network of contacts in forestry at the technical level in the African countries upon which FOSA can depend.

PLANNING OF FOSA ACTIVITIES

18. Preliminary planning for FOSA was carried out in late 1998 and early 1999 by FAO, in consultation with the African Development Bank.

19. The formal launching of the Forestry Outlook Study for Africa among the African countries, however, took place through a series of sub-regional meetings. Each country was invited to participate in a sub-regional planning meeting to discuss the objectives of FOSA and to comment upon the proposed FOSA activities. To date, three sub-regional meetings for FOSA have been held: in Gabon for the Central African countries (September 1999), Tunisia for the North African countries (November 1999), and C�te d'Ivoire for the West African countries (December 1999).² The remaining two, those for East Africa and for Southern Africa, are planned for April 2000.

20. The meetings and their follow-up have resulted in broadened partnership at sub-regional and regional levels and, in particular, strengthened collaboration with programmes and projects dealing with forestry information; the securing of financial and logistic support for the preparation of the country outlook papers; and improved communication within the region.

IMPLEMENTATION OF FOSA ACTIVITIES

21. Drafts of the two baseline studies have been prepared. The baseline study on social and economic features in the Africa region has been provided by the African Development Bank. FAO prepared the baseline study on forests and land use in Africa.

22. The outline of the country outlook documents has been finalized and sent to all FOSA National Focal Points. Work plans have been prepared and submitted by most countries and several countries have initiated the preparation of the country outlook paper. Two thematic papers have been initiated: one on the prospects for forest products production, consumption and trade to the year 2020, and the other on institutional arrangements for forestry in Africa.

23. The thematic report on institutional arrangements supported by the World Bank commenced in October 1999. It analyses the current structures, governance, reform efforts and lessons learned from them. The report will indicate future options for countries and provide a strategy for improving institutional performance in the forestry sector. It is due to be completed in June 2000.

24. The implementation of FOSA activities is expected to go forward as scheduled, but two factors in particular may influence the quality of the final results. The contribution that the country outlook papers make to the FOSA process will depend upon the ability of each country to produce a sound, forward looking paper that examines the factors both within and outside the forestry sector that are likely to have an impact on forests to the year 2020, and the policy options available to influence the future direction of the sector. This will require interdisciplinary discussion and analysis within each country, which will necessitate the mobilization of significant human resources and inter-departmental cooperation. The strength of these analyses will influence the overall value of FOSA. The second factor which will influence the quality of the final product is the availability of funds and/or contributions in kind from partners. Partnership funds have been committed for the thematic reports, but the breadth and depth of the thematic reports could be increased if additional funds were identified or if collaborating organizations offered to contribute a report. The final results of FOSA will also be improved if funds could be secured for a second series of sub-regional meetings for the FOSA National Focal Points, to give them the opportunity to review and discuss the first draft of the sub-regional reports (in late 2001); for meetings of the External Advisory Group; and for technical consultations on particular topics of interest to the region or sub-regions.

MANAGEMENT AND COORDINATION ARRANGEMENTS

25. The following bodies are providing technical or managerial support to FOSA:

• FOSA task forces in FAO and the African Development Bank - technical and logistical support to the programme. The FAO task force comprises a wide range of technical experts in FAO Headquarters and forestry officers in the Regional and Sub-Regional Offices for Africa and the Near East. In the ADB, senior forestry specialists of the Agriculture and Rural Development Division are involved in the task force, as well as other staff from the Operations Division.
• FOSA National Focal Points - to provide support and inputs to FOSA over the course of the study and to attend the sub-regional planning meetings. Each country has been invited to nominate a FOSA National Focal Point and to identify two other partners (contact points) in each country to cover the private sector and non-governmental/civil society perspectives. Nearly all countries have named a FOSA National Focal Point.
• Sub-committee of the AFWC - provision of technical support, liaison with the Commission, and contacts within Africa.
• Expert Advisory Group for FOSA - made up of 8 regional forestry experts who will provide technical advice on the study.

APPENDIX 1

APPENDIX 2

Proposed Schedule for FOSA

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1  EC-FAO Partnership Programme, "Data Collection and Analysis for Sustainable Forest Management in ACP Countries" (project FAO/GCP/INT/679/EC).

2  The meetings in Gabon and C�te d'Ivoire addressed both data collection efforts under the EC-FAO Partnership Programme and planning for the Forestry Outlook Study for Africa.