European Timber Trends and Prospects: Into the 21st Century

ECE/TIM/SP/11

Table of Contents

PREFACE BY THE SECRETARIAT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Objectives of ETTS V

1.2 Overview of the European forest and forest products sector

1.3 Comparison of trends in the 1980s with the scenarios of ETTS IV

Chapter 2 THE POLICY CONTEXT

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Policy for the forest sector

2.3 Base scenario for the policy context in other sectors

Chapter 3 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC BACKGROUND

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Demographic outlook

3.3 Economic growth

3.3 Construction

Chapter 4 THE EUROPEAN FOREST RESOURCE

4.1 Introduction

4.2 The European forest resource around 1990

4.3 The outlook for the European forest resource

4.4 Conclusions

Chapter 5 EXTERNAL INFLUENCES

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Trends in global change

5.3 Impacts of global change on forest ecosystems

5.4 Impacts of forests on global change

5.5 Discussion of the outlook for the relationship between European forests and global change

5.6 Forest fires

5.7 Other external influences on the forest

5.8 Conclusions

5.9 References

Chapter 6 SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF FOREST PRODUCTS IN MARKET ECONOMIES

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Past trends in consumption and production

6.3 End uses, competition and substitution

6.4 The European forest industries

6.5 Demand and supply projections⁷

Chapter 7 RESIDUES, RECYCLING AND RE-USE

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Wood processing residues³

7.3 Waste paper (secondary fibre)

Chapter 8 EUROPE'S TRADE WITH OTHER REGIONS

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Pattern of world forest product trade in the mid-1990s

8.3 Overview of the world forest resource¹

8.4 Outlook for supply from other regions

8.5 Scenarios for European net trade

8.6 Outlook for world demand for forest products

8.7 Availability of forest products for exports to Europe

Chapter 9 WOOD AND ENERGY

9.1 Introduction

9.2 The context: general energy trends and outlook

9.3 Wood energy supply and use around 1990

9.4 The outlook for wood energy

9.5 Discussion of the scenarios

Chapter 10 THE OUTLOOK FOR THE TRANSITION ECONOMIES

10.1 Introduction

10.2 The forest and forest products sector in the transition economies

10.3 Transition issues

10.4 The outlook for the forest and forest products sector in the transition economies

10.5 Conclusions

Chapter 11 BASE SCENARIOS FOR THE FOREST AND FOREST PRODUCTS SECTOR TO 2020

11.1 Introduction

11.2 Methodology

11.3 Base scenarios

Chapter 12 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

12.1 Introduction

12.2 Prices of forest products

12.3 Raw material costs

12.4 Construction activity

12.5 Recovery of waste paper

12.6 Energy prices and policy

12.7 Environmental policies, legislation and attitudes ("Deep Green Future")

12.8 Reduced global availability of wood

12.9 Uncertainty regarding economic growth

12.10 Discussion of the alternative scenarios

12.11 Conclusions

Chapter 13 CONCLUSIONS

13.1 Introduction

13.2 Main conclusions of ETTS V

13.3 Sustainability of the forest and forest products sector in Europe

13.4 Implications for the coordination of policy making processes

13.5 Resilience of the forest, changes in management priorities and an opportunity for forest policy