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FPMA 简报 #7 CH, 2021年9月9日

食品价格趋势月度报告













See full version of Food Price Monitoring and Analysis Bulletin #7, 9 September 2021 (in English only)



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    1月,小麦出口价格回落,原因是南半球大丰收,季节性供应增加。相反,对南半球干旱气候的担忧导致国际玉米价格更为坚挺。国际稻米价格也小幅攀升,原因是主要作物收割工作接近尾声,以及亚洲买家的采购,为价格提供了支撑。在西非大部分地区,尽管收割工作于近期结束,但粗粮价格出现上涨或保持稳定,且远高于去年同期水平,主要原因是冲突持续,且运输成本走高。在东非,1月,粗粮价格走势不一,但该分区域的价格总体仍远高于去年同期水平。其中,南苏丹和苏丹的价格处于异常高位。在东亚,11月,一些国家的小麦和面粉价格继续上涨,且大多远高于去年同期水平,主要原因是国际市场价格高企。在远东地区,1月,斯里兰卡的主粮价格上涨,创下或接近历史最高纪录,原因是国家货币进一步贬值,以及市场担忧种植季投入品短缺会影响即将到来的主季“Maha”水稻作物收成。
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    4月,国际谷物价格走势不一。受供应收紧的主要影响,玉米价格上涨,而小麦出口供应总体充足,因而价格保持稳定。与此相反,国际大麦和高粱价格小幅下跌,稻米价格则在货币波动以及贸易活动放缓的影响下进一步下跌。 在东非,由于供应不足,宏观经济形势艰难,包括国家货币疲软导致食品价格通胀,苏丹和南苏丹的粗粮价格继续维持在历史高位水平及其附近。埃塞尔比亚的谷物价格也处于高位,主要原因是国家货币持续贬值,推高了运输和生产成本。 在西非,尼日利亚粗粮价格出现季节性增长趋势,而供应链遭遇瓶颈和宏观经济形势艰难导致价格进一步承受上行压力,目前价格远高于去年同期水平。东北部情况尤为严重,因为持续的冲突加剧了经济挑战。3月,食品价格通胀同比增长23%,创下近16年来的最高水平。
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    10月,所有主要谷物的国际价格环比均上涨。小麦价格领跑此轮涨幅,稻米、大麦和玉米价格也上涨。 在东非,10月,粗粮价格走势不一,价格普遍高于一年前水平,其中,苏丹和南苏丹的价格仍处于异常高位。由于供应收紧,乌干达和索马里的价格也远高于去年同期水平,埃塞俄比亚的价格也同比大幅走高,主要原因是宏观经济形势艰难,以及一些地区的冲突对贸易造成冲击。在西非,10月,粗粮价格连续第二个月出现季节性下跌。然而,该分区域的价格仍远高于去年同期水平,其中萨赫勒中部和乍得湖盆地情况尤甚,原因是冲突加剧继续对农业生计、贸易和市场活动造成冲击。

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