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Strategic Guidance for Ex Post Impact Assessment of Agricultural Research - CGIAR









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    Book (series)
    The State of Food and Agriculture 2023
    Revealing the true cost of food to transform agrifood systems
    2023
    Agrifood systems generate significant benefits to society, including the food that nourishes us and jobs and livelihoods for over a billion people. However, their negative impacts due to unsustainable business-as-usual activities and practices are contributing to climate change, natural resource degradation and the unaffordability of healthy diets. Addressing these negative impacts is challenging, because people, businesses, governments and other stakeholders lack a complete picture of how their activities affect economic, social and environmental sustainability when they make decisions on a day-to-day basis.The State of Food and Agriculture 2023 looks into the true cost of food for sustainable agrifood systems. The report introduces the concept of hidden environmental, health and social costs and benefits of agrifood systems and proposes an approach – true cost accounting (TCA) – to assess them. To operationalize the TCA approach, the report proposes a two-phase assessment process, first relying on national-level TCA assessments to raise awareness and then moving towards in-depth and targeted evaluations to prioritize solutions and guide transformative actions. It provides a first attempt at national-level assessments for 154 countries, suggesting that global hidden costs from agrifood systems amount to at least to 10 trillion 2020 PPP dollars. The estimates indicate that low-income countries bear the highest burden of the hidden costs of agrifood systems relative to national income. Despite the preliminary nature of these estimates, the analysis reveals the urgent need to factor hidden costs into decision-making for the transformation of agrifood systems. Innovations in research and data, alongside investments in data collection and capacity building, are needed to scale the application of TCA, especially in low- and middle-income countries, so that it can become a viable tool to inform decision- and policymaking in a transparent and consistent way.
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    Report of the Expert Consultation on the Assessment of Socio-economic Impacts of Aquaculture. Ankara, Turkey, 4–8 February 2008. 2008
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    This Expert Consultation was convened with the aim of identifying socio-economic impacts of aquaculture and a universally acceptable method for assessing them. The goal was also to advise FAO on future work in the area of socio-economics of aquaculture. The Consultation debated on the many positive and negative impacts of aquaculture, including those on land and land-based habitats, water and wild species, the downstream and upstream industries of aquaculture, infrastructure, incomes, employment , food supply, food quality and safety, food access, food stability, human health, education and training, population and demography, and community and social order, and emphasized that these impacts have profound interdependence and far-reaching socio-economic implications, which makes the task of assessing them difficult. There was a wide consensus amongst experts that multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) as a measurement technique is a su itable method for assessing socio-economic impacts in a situation where multiple attributes are important and cannot be easily reduced to a single monetary measure of impacts as is the case in aquaculture. However, because of the tangibles which can be evaluated in monetary terms and the intangibles which are difficult to quantify in monetary value in socio-economics of aquaculture, and given the wide range of impacts to assess as well as various circumstances, experts agreed that there is no si ngle method which could be used to assess the socio-economic impacts of aquaculture. In addition to MCDM using AHP, they suggested that other techniques such as the “costs benefits analysis” (CBA) could also be used depending on circumstances. They recommended that FAO carry out case studies in a certain number of developed and developing countries on assessing the socio-economic impacts of aquaculture using AHP, CBA and another technique in order to test and compare the applicability and result s of these methods in assessing socio-economic impacts of aquaculture. It was also recommended to develop a user guide on the implementation of these methods and build capacity in developing countries in using the identified techniques. Other needs for future work in socio-economics of aquaculture were also identified.
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    Economic assessment of drought risk management
    A two-tier framework for cost–benefit analysis of proactive versus reactive drought management
    2024
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    Drought is a complex natural hazard, and the uncertainties surrounding its onset and impacts make investment decisions inherently difficult. On the other hand, drought is considered one of the costliest and most destructive natural hazards. With the threat of higher frequency and greater intensity of future drought events due to climate change, the debate in drought management has evolved from whether to implement reactive or proactive drought management approaches – in other words, whether to invest or not in proactive drought actions – to how to invest in proactive drought action. Different and evolving drought events can be mitigated with varying proactive measures, but the best trade-off between efficacy and profitability – be it a financial or an economic profit – must be targeted. The report investigates the broad concept of the economics of drought management, provides a conceptual, two-tier framework for the assessment of proactive and reactive actions, and disseminates case studies for the implementation of the framework in decision-making processes. This report aims to assist decision-makers, policymakers, planners, and national authorities responsible for planning and programming to conduct an exhaustive economic assessment related to drought. With the knowledge gained from the report, a critical step in the drought investment decision-making process can be effectively undertaken.

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