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GIEWS FPMA Bulletin #2, 12 March 2019

Monthly Report on Food Price Trends










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    After edging down for the past three months, international prices of wheat firmed marginally in February, mostly reflecting strong demand and concerns over dry weather conditions in some major exporters. World maize prices were nearly unchanged in February, with mixed price trends among the major exporters. International rice prices eased in February, amid exchange rate movements and a slowdown in trading activities in most major Asian exporters. Latest analysis by FAO shows that domestic staple food prices generally remained at elevated levels in February 2023. Seasonal factors and price transmission from the recent weakening of international grain prices supported month‑on‑month declines in some staple food prices in parts of East Asia, South America, Southern Africa and West Africa. Nonetheless, in many countries, conflict, adverse weather events and macroeconomic challenges, particularly currency weakness, continue to drive up local prices.
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    International prices of major cereals were steady to mildly lower in September amid large export availabilities. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains in September were at levels well above those a year earlier in several countries of the subregion mainly due to reduced harvests. In the Sudan and South Sudan, the main trigger of high food prices was the strong depreciation of the countries’ currencies. In Southern Africa, prices of cereals continued to rise steeply in Zimbabwe as economic difficulties persist, while in Zambia, prices of maize products reached record highs mostly driven by supply shortages.
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    Export prices of maize from the United States of America increased in May, underpinned by the impact of heavy rains in key growing areas, which also limited the decline in the export prices of wheat. International prices of rice remained generally stable. In East Africa, severe early and mid-season dryness affecting production prospects for the 2019 harvests continued to support the increases in prices of maize in several countries of the subregion. In the Sudan and South Sudan, a halt in currency depreciations contributed to a softer tone in prices of coarse grains in the past month. In Southern Africa, prices of maize came under general downward pressure in May with the start of the 2019 harvests. By contrast, in Zimbabwe, retail prices of maize and wheat flour spiked after upward price revisions by the milling industry, reflecting the continuing depreciation of the country’s currency as well as the sharply reduced production prospects for the 2019 cereal crops.

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