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GIEWS FPMA Bulletin #2, 12 March 2019

Monthly Report on Food Price Trends












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    After edging down for the past three months, international prices of wheat firmed marginally in February, mostly reflecting strong demand and concerns over dry weather conditions in some major exporters. World maize prices were nearly unchanged in February, with mixed price trends among the major exporters. International rice prices eased in February, amid exchange rate movements and a slowdown in trading activities in most major Asian exporters. Latest analysis by FAO shows that domestic staple food prices generally remained at elevated levels in February 2023. Seasonal factors and price transmission from the recent weakening of international grain prices supported month‑on‑month declines in some staple food prices in parts of East Asia, South America, Southern Africa and West Africa. Nonetheless, in many countries, conflict, adverse weather events and macroeconomic challenges, particularly currency weakness, continue to drive up local prices.
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    International prices of major cereals were steady to mildly lower in September amid large export availabilities. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains in September were at levels well above those a year earlier in several countries of the subregion mainly due to reduced harvests. In the Sudan and South Sudan, the main trigger of high food prices was the strong depreciation of the countries’ currencies. In Southern Africa, prices of cereals continued to rise steeply in Zimbabwe as economic difficulties persist, while in Zambia, prices of maize products reached record highs mostly driven by supply shortages.
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    Weather-driven factors pushed up the United States of America export prices of maize to a five-year high in June. International prices of wheat also rose, while those of rice remained generally stable. In East Africa, the ongoing harvests and beneficial late season rains, which improved crop prospects, halted the increasing trend of maize prices registered over the past several months. Prices, however, remained generally well above those a year earlier. In Southern Africa, cereal prices in Zimbabwe surged in May, following a hike in fuel prices, triggered by a weakening currency weakness, coupled with a sharply reduced 2019 harvest. In South America, domestic prices of yellow maize increased in June in key producing and exporting countries, Argentina and Brazil, due to unusually strong international demand and despite the ongoing harvests, expected at a bumper level.

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