Thumbnail Image

Global aquaculture outlook in the next decades: an analysis of national aquaculture production forecasts to 2030









Brugère, C.; Ridler, N. Global aquaculture outlook in the next decades: an analysis of national aquaculture production forecasts to 2030. FAO Fisheries Circular. No. 1001. Rome, FAO. 2004. 47p.


Also available in:

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Thumbnail Image
    Booklet
    Climate-Smart Agriculture in Cabo Verde 2019
    Also available in:
    No results found.

    The climate smart agriculture (CSA) concept reflects an ambition to improve the integration of agriculture development and climate responsiveness. It aims to achieve food security and broader development goals under a changing climate and increasing food demand. CSA initiatives sustainably increase productivity, enhance resilience, and reduce/remove greenhouse gases (GHGs), and require planning to address trade-offs and synergies between three pillars: productivity, adaptation and mitigation. The priorities of different countries and stakeholders are reflected to achieve more efficient, effective, and equitable food systems that address challenges in environment, social, and economic dimensions across productive landscapes. The country profile provides a snapshot of a developing baseline created to initiate discussion, both within countries and globally, about entry points for investing in CSA at scale. Cabo Verde is an archipelago developing country in West Africa of volcanic origin having an ecological and landscape diversity associated to the geomorphological characteristics of the islands and to the influences of the actions of climate elements and anthropic pressure on the existing resources. Agricultural land in the country is about 79000ha representing 19.6% of the total land area. Agriculture is predominantly based on subsistence family production. The production systems present can be categorised into rainfed and irrigated systems. Major crops produced include maize, pulses, vegetables, coconut, sugar cane, coffee and fruits. In terms of agricultural inputs, Cabo Verde has an irrigation potential of 3,109ha although a small proportion (5.9%) of the agricultural areas is equipped for irrigation. However, drip irrigation has expanded fast, with investments made in water mobilisation and gravity irrigation schemes. Cereals continue to constitute the major parts of Cabo Verdean diet although diets are now more diversified with more proteins and micronutrients-rich foods. As a small island development state (SIDS), Cabo Verde has one of the lowest GHG emissions per capita. Challenges to agriculture include (i) growth in population and food demand, (ii) limited marketing opportunities of agricultural commodities, (iii) climate change and variability, and (iv) food waste. Climate models ran during 2008-2012 have shown that the country’s natural vulnerabilities, along with their social and economic implications, are very likely to be exacerbated by climate-related disruptions in the next decades. In addition, the country is affected by acute water scarcity (both surface and underground) with erratic mean annual precipitation level decreasing since 1970. CSA technologies and practises present opportunities for addressing climate change challenges, as well as for economic growth and development of the agriculture sector. Identified CSA practises in use in the country include (i) integrated pest and disease management (IPM)), (ii) drip irrigation, (iii) anti-erosion practises, (iv) soil and water conservation (SWC) techniques, (v) shelterbelts, and (vi) improved seeds/breeds. Several institutions aim to foster the development and adoption of technologies that enhance agriculture productivity and advance CSA practises in Cabo Verde. The ministry of environment, agriculture and fisheries is the main government institutions responsible for the country’s climate change plans and policies. The food and agriculture organisation of the United Nations (FAO) and the United Nations development programme (UNDP) play instrumental roles in the promotion of sustainable agriculture and environmental sustainability. There is no specific funding allocated to CSA per se in the country. However, various projects funded within the purview of agriculture, environmental sustainability and climate change have contributed to delivering CSA goals. Sources of funding include FAO, World Bank, GEF with support of UNDP, etc. The country has also benefitted from other grants to support it in the development of various strategies, action plans, policies and frameworks. Several policies, strategies, plans and programmes are being implemented to fight climate change and promote activities underpinning CSA.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Booklet
    Climate-Smart Agriculture in Borno state of Nigeria 2019
    Also available in:
    No results found.

    The climate smart agriculture (CSA) concept reflects an ambition to improve the integration of agriculture development and climate responsiveness. It aims to achieve food security and broader development goals under a changing climate and increasing food demand. CSA initiatives sustainably increase productivity, enhance resilience, and reduce/remove greenhouse gases (GHGs), and require planning to address trade-offs and synergies between three pillars: productivity, adaptation and mitigation. The priorities of different countries and stakeholders are reflected to achieve more efficient, effective, and equitable food systems that address challenges in environment, social, and economic dimensions across productive landscapes. The country profile provides a snapshot of a developing baseline created to initiate discussion, both within countries and globally, about entry points for investing in CSA at scale. The economy of Borno State is largely agrarian, with livestock husbandry, crop production and fishing on the Lake Chad dominating the economic activities of the population. Agriculture is mainly subsistent, with over 70% of her population depending on it directly or indirectly for their livelihoods. It provides the bulk of employment, income, food, and clothing for the rapidly growing population as well as supplying raw materials for agro-based industries. In Borno State, agriculture contributes up to 65% of the State’s Gross Domestic Product. Major cash crops are cotton, sesame and groundnuts while food crops include maize, yam, cassava, sorghum, cowpea, sorghum, millet, sweet potato and rice. Cattle and other livestock also have enormous value chain growth opportunities. With the recent insecurity that worst hit Borno state, food production (crop/animal and fishing) contribute to only 5.9 % of the food needs of the state. Virtually, 94% of food consumed in Borno are imported either in form of credit or gift from non-governmental organizations (NGOs), world food program (WFP), and civil societies among others. Declining soil fertility, climate change, low farm input lets, limited investment and poor infrastructure continue to hamper agricultural productivity and developments in the agricultural sector. The Borno state and indeed Nigeria has made efforts to enhance the resilience of the agriculture sector to climate change. The ongoing development of the Agricultural Promotion Policy (APP), the development of a National Policy on Climate Change and Response Strategy (NPCCRS) and the numerous plans, strategies and policy enabling environment are thought to set the State on the path towards sustainable development under the realities of a changing and varying climate. Some CSA practices (e.g. intercropping/multiple cropping, agroforestry, conservation agriculture etc.) are quite widespread and their proliferation has been facilitated by ease of adoption, and multiple benefits such as food, income diversification and improved resilience. Although there are a wide range of organizations conducting CSA-related work, most have focused largely on food security, environmental management and adaptation. There is the need to also integrate mitigation into the State’s climate-smart agriculture development efforts. In addition, off-farm services related to CSA need to be enhanced, including weather-smart and market-smart services. Funding for CSA is limited in the State and Nigeria in general, however there are opportunities to access and utilize international climate finance from sources such as the Green Climate Fund and Global Environment Facility and through readiness and capacity building programmes. At the national level, the National Agricultural Resilience in Nigeria, an arm of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development which targets reforestation, agriculture and livestock, is a useful mechanism for directing climate finance to CSA-related activities. Others are the fund set aside for the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan for Climate Change in Nigeria (NASPA-CCN) which can benefit CSA-related activities the Borno State.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Book (stand-alone)
    Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps 2017
    Also available in:
    No results found.

    A short-term projection model is developed to assess and monitor potential future fish demand and supply gaps at the country (nearly 200 countries or territories), regional (about 40 country groups), and global levels for nine species groups. Salient results at the global, regional and country levels are presented in the main text. Key results for all countries and all the nine species groups (including both standard and conservative projections) are documented in the appendix. The results indic ate that: (i) if fish prices and consumer preferences remain the same, income growth would drive world per capita fish demand up from 20 kg/year in the mid-2010s to 25 kg/year in the early 2020s (or 23 kg/year under the conservative projection); (ii) the income-driven per capita fish demand hike, combined with population growth, would drive world fish demand up by 47 million tonnes (or 31 million tonnes under the conservative projection); (iii) the 19-million-tonne fish supply growth generated b y the trend growth of world aquaculture production would cover only 40 percent of the projected demand growth (or 62 percent of the conservative projection), leaving a fish demand-supply gap of 28 million tonnes (or 16 million tonnes under the conservative projection) in the early 2020s; (iv) the demand-supply gap for shellfish (i.e. crustaceans and molluscs) would be bigger than that for finfish – they would account for, respectively, 55 percent and 45 percent of the 28-million-tonne fish deman d-supply gap; (v) while world aquaculture production following its recent trend would grow 4.5 percent annually from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s, it would take a 9.9 percent annual growth (or 6.9 percent under the conservative projection) to fill the world fish demand-supply gap in the early 2020s; (vi) the trend aquaculture growth in only 17 countries (or 24 countries under the conservative projection) would be sufficient to cover the demand growth driven by population and income growth; e xcess demand is expected to occur in 170 countries (or 163 countries under the conservative projection); and (vii) should the world aquaculture production fall short of the required annual growth rate (i.e. 9.9 percent or 6.9 percent under the standard or conservative projection), and assuming world capture fisheries production would remain at the current level, the world fish price would have to increase to reduce fish demand in order to clear the market (i.e. no demand-supply gap). Results gen erated by the short-term projection model are useful for policymaking, development aids, business or investment planning, and other decision-making by various stakeholders in aquaculture and fisheries. They are a complement to and can potentially enhance the understanding of the results of more sophisticated forecasting models such as the OECD-FAO Fish Model and the World Bank-IFPRI-FAO Fish to 2030 model.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

No results found.