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Linkages between domestic and international maize markets, and market based strategies for hedging maize import price risks in Tanzania








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    The effect of the National Food Reserve Agency on maize market prices in Tanzania 2018
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    Tanzania’s National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) has a mandate to guarantee national food security through procuring, reserving and recycling grain stocks – primarily maize – and doing so in a cost effective manner. The agency procures maize at set, annual pan-territorial maize prices based on estimated production costs, and distributes maize free of charge or at a discount to targeted vulnerable populations. Surplus stocks are sold in the market, often also at subsidized prices to millers, or at market-related prices to other state or non-state actors. The perception exists that these procurement and sales activities are distortive; hence, this study adopts a time-series econometric approach to modeling price dynamics in selected regional wholesale maize markets in Tanzania with a view to isolate the NFRA’s impact on these markets. Results suggest the NFRA has had an insignificant impact on maize prices during 2010/11–2014/15 despite their pricing strategy and fairly significant presence in at least some regional markets. As such its activities only benefit a select number of maize suppliers, i.e., traders or farmers, or consumers, with limited spillover effects into markets more generally. With this in view, the NFRA should reconsider its strategy of offering a price premium for the maize it procures or selling maize at a discount, even though its mandate of providing subsidized or free maize to vulnerable people is not in question. Current storage capacity expansion plans are also not consistent with the NFRA’s food security mandate.
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    Uneven transmission of international cereal price shocks to domestic markets
    Domestic cereal prices during a time of rising international prices
    2025
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    This study examines the evolution of domestic cereal prices in the low- and middle-income countries (LICs and MICs) from 2017 to mid-2023, covering the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Using monthly retail price data adjusted by the consumer price index (CPI), we analyse cross-country and regional trends. Results indicate that Latin America and the Caribbean is more sensitive to international price fluctuations, whereas regions such as Asia – especially China and India – exhibit greater stability, largely due to effective agricultural policies and robust domestic production. These findings underscore the need for targeted agricultural and food policies to bolster food security and resilience in LICs and MICs, ultimately contributing to a better life.
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    The FAOSTAT emissions database is composed of several data domains covering the categories of the IPCC Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector of the national GHG inventory. Energy use in agriculture is additionally included as relevant to emissions from agriculture as an economic production sector under the ISIC A statistical classification, though recognizing that, in terms of IPCC, they are instead part of the Energy sector of the national GHG inventory. FAO emissions estimates are available over the period 1961–2018 for agriculture production processes from crop and livestock activities. Land use emissions and removals are generally available only for the period 1990–2019. This analytical brief focuses on overall trends over the period 2000–2018.