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Rice Market Monitor - July 2008

Commodity markets, Policy Analysis and projections Service. Trade and markets Division











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    Rice Market Monitor - June 2005 2005
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    According to the FAO second forecast, global paddy production in the current 2005 season could increase by 2.7 percent to 621 million tonnes, or 16 million tonnes more than in 2004, as most countries are expected to react to the rise in prices witnessed in 2004 by expanding cultivation. The current prospects are almost 7 million tonnes above the preceding FAO forecast, reflecting improved expectations for production in Brazil, India, Myanmar, Nigeria, and Thailand.  Much of the expansion foreseen in 2005 is likely to be concentrated in Asia, with mainland China forecast to boost production by 6 million tonnes compared to last year, with large additions also coming from Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. By contrast, the outlook is less buoyant for Indonesia, Japan and Viet Nam, which might experience a contraction. In recent months, the news that China had started cultivating genetically modified (GM) rice on a commercial basis gained the headlines. H owever, it is not clear whether the Government has formally authorized the release on the market of the GM rice seeds, which would set an important precedent, especially in relation with a food crop.
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    Rice Market Monitor - April 2008 2008
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    Short term supply and demand imbalances, along with a weak US dollar, low world rice reserves, rising production costs and higher prices of competing agricultural and substitute food commodities help explain the recent tendency for international rice prices to move up, but they do not fully justify the extent and the suddenness of the surge. In recent months, rice export prices staged a remarkable increase, reaching unprecedented high levels in nominal terms, although in real terms , they still fell well short of the levels witnessed in the mid-1970s. For illustration, prices of Thai white rice 100%B almost trebled between April 2007 and April 2008, with much of the gain accruing since November last year. The price surges have not only concerned rice, but also other basic foodstuffs, kerosene, and other essentials, affecting numerous countries and stirring considerable concern among governments. Many importing countries have responded by implementing domestic price stabilization actions, such as reduction or removal of import tariffs and duties and tightened retail price controls, while a large number of exporting countries have imposed restrictions on exports.
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    FAO Rice Market Monitor, July 1998 1998
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    FAO’s latest forecast for global paddy output in 1998 is put at 570 million tonnes, 9 million tonnes, or slightly less than two percent lower than the previous year's revised record level. This is a tentative forecast since the bulk of this season's rice crop is being planted in Asia as the monsoon rains set in. In other countries in the Northern Hemisphere, planting has been completed and growing conditions vary from average to good while in the Southern Hemisphere and around the equatorial belt, harvesting of the 1998 main season paddy crops is complete.

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