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THE IMPACT OF EL NIÑO AND OTHER WEATHER ANOMALIES ON CROP PRODUCTION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA - 21 November 1997

Year of publication 1997

Author Trade and Markets Division

Product type Book (stand-alone)

Series title Special Reports and Alerts

Edition 1

Synopsis (short abstract) An El Niño phenomenon has been developing since March 1997 resulting in significant warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon is often associated with serious weather anomalies and changes in temperatures and precipitation, which can affect agriculture and water resources. The El Niño this year is being predicted by experts as one of the most severe this century as a result of extreme surface sea temperatures in the Pacific. Expert opinion also suggests that the ph enomenon will continue throughout 1997 and possibly extend into 1998. The worst affects of El Niño are expected to be felt over the next few months. To enable some necessary steps to be taken to reduce possible adverse effects, FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) has been closely monitoring weather anomalies in recent months to assess possible effects these may have on crop production and the food supply situation in various countries.

Language English

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    Since March 1997 significant abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America, has been observed and recognised as an El Niño phenomenon. Such an anomaly is known to occur every 2 to 7 years, with varying degrees of intensity and duration. The phenomenon usually peaks around late December. An El Niño is often associated with important changes in temperatures and precipitation, which may positively or negatively affect agriculture and water resourc es. The change in sea surface temperatures also affect natural conditions for marine ecosystems. The last two El Niños occurred in 1982/83, which caused severe flooding and extensive weather-related damage in Latin America and drought in parts of Asia and 1991/92, which resulted in a severe drought in Southern Africa. This year’s El Niño is being predicted by various experts as one of the most severe this century as record Pacific surface temperatures have been observed. Various climate agenc ies around the world also indicate that the phenomenon will continue throughout 1997 and possibly extend into 1998. The worst affects of El Niño are expected to be felt over the next few months.
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    EL NINO’S IMPACT ON CROP PRODUCTION IN LATIN AMERICA - 25 November 1997 1997
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    Crop production in Latin America is particularly vulnerable to the effects of El Niño. The phenomenon’s early manifestations in 1997 have affected the first season cereal and bean crops in most Central American and Caribbean countries. On average, losses for 1997 crops in the sub-region are estimated at about between 15 and 20 percent as compared with the previous year, but losses in several countries have been substantially higher. The second season crops, currently being harvested, have been a ffected first by excessive rains in September, typical of the hurricane season, and since then by abnormally dry weather associated with El Niño. Prospects of recovery from previously incurred losses are almost nil for most countries. In addition, a serious risk exists for the planting of the 1998 first season cereal crops, beginning in March, should dry weather extend to March/April. In South America, in the Andean countries, planting of the 1998 main season crops is underway. The bulk of th e 1997 cereal crops in these countries had been collected when El Niño’s early effects were felt. In the southern areas of the sub-region, however, plantings of the 1997 wheat crop were significantly reduced in the main producing countries because of excess rainfall. Harvesting is presently underway while sowing of the 1998 maize crop has started. For the sub-region as a whole, precipitation and temperature anomalies prevail and constitute a threat to the crops. The outcome will be largely deter mined by the development of El Niño phenomenon whose strongest impact is expected in the next few months.
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    EL NIÑO’S IMPACT ON CROP PRODUCTION IN LATIN AMERICA - 25 August 1997 1997
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    A large-scale abnormal warming of the sea-surface of South American Pacific Ocean has been observed since March 1997. The phenomenon is referred to as El Niño and appears every 2 to 7 years, with different intensity and duration. The current El Niño appears to be exceptional in that it is the strongest ever recorded at this time of the year. Important changes in temperatures and precipitation patterns are often noticed during El Niño, having a positive or negative impact on agriculture and water resources. The overall changes in the ocean surface temperatures caused by El Niño also affect the natural conditions of marine ecosystems. It should be stressed, however, that no immediate association can be established between El Niño and agricultural production changes. The previous strongest El Niño event, in 1982/83, resulted in severe flooding and drought in several parts of the world, as well as the decline of a number of fish stocks, and reportedly caused over U.S.$ 10 billion in wea ther-related damages. While it is difficult to forecast the impact of El Niño in specific areas, it is necessary to follow its development and take preventive action against its possible negative impact on agriculture.
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