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Book (stand-alone)Welfare impacts of climate shocks Evidence from Uganda 2016
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No results found.This paper evaluates the effects of weather/climate shocks on various measures of household welfare using a nationally representative panel data from Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) together with a set of novel climate variation indicators. We estimated generalized least square (GLS) random effects and quintile regression models to address the research questions. Our results point towards a consumption and income smoothing behaviour by the households since: we obtain very few significant results with respect to climate/weather shock variables togetherwith highly significant effects of the socio-demographic and wealth control variables. We also investigate if different shocks definitions, i.e the reference period used to define the shock, modifies our results. The latter are robust since the coefficients and the signs do not change with the reference period. We further test the hypotheses that policy-relevant mechanisms can be effective means of mitigating the negative welfare effects. For instance access to credit services and use of sustainable land management practices enables the households to contain the negative effects of climate shock on per capita food consumption from own produced crops but not the case for some of the outcome variables. -
Book (series)Climate-change vulnerability in rural Zambia: the impact of an El Niño-induced shock on income and productivity 2019
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No results found.This paper examines the impacts of the El Niño during the 2015/2016 season on maize productivity and income in rural Zambia. The analysis aims at identifying whether and how sustainable land management (SLM) practices and livelihood diversification strategies have contributed to moderate the impacts of such a weather shock. The analysis was conducted using a specifically designed survey called the El Niño Impact Assessment Survey (ENIAS), which is combined with the 2015 wave of the Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Surveys (RALS), as well as high resolution rainfall data from the Africa Rainfall Climatology version 2 (ARC2). This unique, integrated data set provides an opportunity to understand the impacts of shocks like El Niño that are expected to get more frequent and severe in Zambia, as well as understand the agricultural practices and livelihood strategies that can buffer household production and welfare from the impacts of such shocks to drive policy recommendations. Results show that households affected by the drought experienced a decrease in maize yield by around 20 percent, as well as a reduction in income up to 37 percent, all else equal. Practices that moderated the impact of the drought included livestock diversification, income diversification, and the adoption of agro-forestry. Interestingly, the use of minimum soil disturbance was not effective in moderating the yield and income effects of the drought. Policies to support livestock sector development, agroforestry adoption, and off -farm diversification should be prioritized as effective drought resiliency strategies in Zambia. -
Book (series)Welfare impacts of climate shocks: evidence from Tanzania 2016
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No results found.Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains the world’s most food-insecure region characterized by high levels of child mortality and poverty and low levels of human and physical capital (FAO, 2009). Countries in SSA, including Tanzania, heavily depend on a smallholder-based agricultural sector, which makes their welfare and food security particularly vulnerable to climate change (Barrios et al., 2008). The goal of this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of weather risk on rural hou seholds’ welfare in Tanzania using nationally representative household panel data together with a set of novel weather variation indicators based on interpolated gridded and re-analysis weather data that capture the peculiar features of short term and long term variations in rainfall and temperature. In particular, we estimate the impact of weather shocks on a rich set of welfare indicators (including total income, total expenditure, food expenditure and its share in total expenditure and calori e intake) and investigate whether and how they vary by different definitions of shocks - capturing changes in levels and variations over different time periods. We find that both rainfall and maximum temperature variability exert a negative impact on welfare (i.e. no consumption smoothing) and that households that have adopted SLM practices are able to achieve income-smoothing. We also find that the most vulnerable rural households are much more affected by a rainfall deficit compared to the hou seholds in the top income quantile. Results underline the key role extension services play in enhancing adaptive capacity to reduce vulnerability to adverse weather conditions, as well as the importance of targeting the most vulnerable households in policy interventions to improve food security in the face of weather shocks.
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