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Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #2, 10 March 2023

Monthly report on food price trends













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    International prices of wheat fell again in January, as the short-term outlook for global supplies continued to improve, in particular following latest estimates of larger 2022 outputs in Australia and the Russian Federation than earlier expected. By contrast, international coarse grain prices firmed marginally, mostly reflecting the continued strong demand for maize supplies from Brazil. For rice, tighter availabilities, strong local demand in some Asian exporting countries and exchange rate movements increased international prices at an accelerated pace in January. FAO’s analysis of domestic staple food prices indicates that significantly high price levels persisted in December 2022 and January 2023, despite some evidence of easing from 2022 peaks for selected countries, including parts of Southern Africa and West Africa. Food access constraints will likely continue in the near term, amid fragile social and economic conditions in several areas, especially in the Horn of Africa. Developments in the global market, along with other concurrent shocks, including adverse weather events, conflicts and macroeconomic challenges such as currency weaknesses, will continue to influence domestic staple food price trends.
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    Journal, magazine, bulletin
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    Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #5, 14 June 2023
    Monthly report on food price trends
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    International prices of wheat and maize continued to decline in May, while rice prices increased further. The downward trend in wheat prices was mostly due to ample global supplies and subdued import demand, while an expected record crop in Brazil and higher production in the United States of America were largely behind the decline in maize prices. The extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative also contributed to softening world prices. By contrast, international rice quotations continued their upward trend in May, as previous deals with Asian buyers were executed and supplies tightened in some exporters, such as Viet Nam and Pakistan. In most countries monitored by FAO, domestic staple food prices in May 2023 remained above their year‑earlier levels. Conflict and insecurity, adverse weather, high prices of agricultural inputs, elevated distribution costs as well as currency weaknesses continue to be the major drivers. Coarse grain prices remained considerably high in East and West Africa, while harvests eased the pressure on maize prices in Southern Africa and South America. In Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia countries and East Asia, ample stocks and supplies from ongoing harvests contributed to the softening of wheat and wheat flour prices. Meanwhile, in East Asia, domestic rice prices increased in major exporting countries despite harvest pressures weighing on prices in other countries of the subregion.
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    Bulletin
    Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #6, 12 July 2023
    Monthly report on food price trends
    2023
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    International prices of all major cereals declined in June. Seasonal supplies put downward pressure on both wheat and maize prices, with wheat harvests starting in the Northern Hemisphere and maize harvests continuing in the Southern Hemisphere. Rice prices also declined amid subdued demand for non-Indica rice and efforts to attract export sales in Pakistan. In most countries monitored by FAO, domestic prices of basic foods in June 2023 remained above their year‑earlier levels. High prices of coarse grains persisted in East and West Africa, while seasonal pressure supported declines in maize prices in Southern Africa and South America. In Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia countries and East Asia, ample carry-over stocks and new supplies from ongoing harvests are contributing to softer wheat and wheat flour prices. Meanwhile, in East Asia, domestic rice prices were generally stable across the subregion but increased in major exporting countries. Conflict and insecurity, adverse weather, high prices of agricultural inputs, elevated distribution costs as well as currency weaknesses continue to be the major drivers.

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