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    Modeling CO2 restoration potential of mangrove ecosystems in Pakistan to support urban green spaces and human well-being
    XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
    2022
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    Abstract: Pakistan is facing major climate change challenges since in recent years, the annual mean temperature has increased by 0.5°C in the country. Karachi is the largest city and highly vulnerable to fatal heatwave events trolling maximum deaths and illness in recent years. Coast of Mangrove Forest (MF) plays an important role in daily temperature, local environment, and microclimatic conditions. It is a well-established scientific reality that carbon traps heat in the air, and now observing a dramatic rise in temperature. The study aimed to evaluate the vulnerability of the communities to heat-stress, and categorize the role of Mangrove Ecosystem Services to mitigate future disasters. Coupled models and GIS/RS tools were used to estimate the suitability of MF land-cover to categorize the latent status. Heatwaves during summer for three days were calibrated by the models which resulted that an inundation of CO2 stress factors, 250 (S-u=1.0) with a rise in temperature up to 44°C with 70% humidity causes more deaths under heat-periods. Our results linked heatwaves with climate warming and extreme weather events, aggravated by rapid urbanization, industrialization, deforestation, emission of CO2, degradation of MF, and land-use change. Moreover, findings revealed that there is a significant drop-off in urban greenspaces and growth in built-up areas during 1984-2016. In addition, the SILVA-model projected that MF around the city has the ability to absorb CO2 emission up to 55.4 million tons. SILVA-growth projected that 43.61% CO2 stock can be deposited by MF which contributes 19% of the ecosystem. Model showcase that rehabilitation of 30-mangrove trees per/100m2 possibly reduce the extreme tide of heat stress, tsunami, CO2, and improve the air-quality index of the city. This study provides initial assessment and policy directions to rehabilitate MF to promote sustainable cities and societies. Key Words: CO2, urban green spaces, disaster risk reduction, extreme weather events ID: 3471412
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