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Rice Market Monitor - December 2009

Trade and Markets Division











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    Rice Market Monitor - December 2007 2007
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    With the bulk of the 2007 season paddy crops already harvested, the FAO forecast of world paddy production in 2007 has been lifted by 2 million tonnes to 645 million tonnes (430 million tonnes in milled rice eq.), which represents a modest increase of 4 million tonnes, or 0.6 percent, from 2006. Virtually all of the year-to-year world expansion is expected to arise in Asia, while contractions are anticipated in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and Oceania, where crops have been co nstrained by adverse weather often associated with “La Niña” conditions. Production in Asia is now foreseen to expand by about 5 million tonnes to 585 million tonnes, spearheaded by large absolute gains in China, India, Indonesia and Myanmar, but also in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines and Thailand. By contrast, Bangladesh, Cambodia, DPR of Korea, the Rep. of Korea, Sri Lanka and Turkey are forecast to face a decline. Exceptionally wet conditions pre vailed in large parts of Africa, hindering crops in most locations and causing production in the region to fall to an expected 21.6 million tonnes, slightly below the good 2006 performance. Much of the decline is foreseen to concentrate in Egypt, but also in Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea Bissau, Mali and Nigeria. By contrast, Benin, Chad, Guinea, Madagascar, Mozambique, Senegal and Tanzania are set to harvest larger crops.
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    Rice Market Monitor - May 2004 2004
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    FAO forecast of global paddy production in 2004 has been raised marginally to 613 million tonnes, which would be 21 million tonnes more than last season and the highest level on record. However, at this period of the year, the forecast is still highly tentative, since the season final outcome will be largely influenced by the timing, extent and distribution of the rainfall during the Asian monsoon, just starting.
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    Rice Market Monitor - June 2002 2002
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    Global paddy output for 2002 is now forecast at 589 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from the previous estimate, but still 4 million tonnes lower than the 2001 figure. The improved production outlook partly reflects upward revisions for some Asian countries, following expectations of a timely arrival of monsoon rains and of a less disruptive El Niño than originally foreseen.

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