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粮食展望 2015年10月

市场综述












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    粮食展望
    市场综述
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    供应量巨大和美元强 势使国际粮食价格保 持下行压力。下一年 度的前景与当前形势 相比出现大幅转变的可能性不 大,但货币和宏观经济走势可 能对2015/16年度的市场继续产 生重要影响。在这一背景下, 预测2015年世界食品进口费用 将创五年低点。
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    粮食展望―2004年12月第4期 2004
    粮农组织估计2004 年世界谷物产量为创记录的20.42 亿吨,较9 月 的预测大幅增加,比2003 年增产8.4%。预测2004/05 年度谷物产量高于利用量,可能使库存量出现五年以 来的首次增加。预测2004/05 年度世界谷物利用量比上一季节增加2.4%。预测到2004/05 年度季末世界谷物库存量将增加至4.41 亿吨。增加 量的大部分为主要出口国的玉米和小麦储备。相反,预计稻米库存量将 再次减少。国际小麦和粗粮价格普遍低于一年前,但稻米价格仍大大高于2003 年的水平。预测2004/05 年度全球谷物贸易量将下降,主要是由于欧盟需求减 少抵消了发展中国家,特别是中国,的预计进口增幅还有余。2004 年年底全球肉类价格略有趋稳,原因是对原疫区的进口解禁和 因此造成的出口供应量的增加。2005 年肉类生产量和贸易量应将继续增 长。 2004 年全年国际奶制品价格趋升,到11 月,粮农组织奶制品价格 指数达1990 年以来的最高水平。价格上涨的压力主要是国际需求增长的 结果,特别是发展中国家对全脂奶粉的需求。在上一销售季节油籽价格达创纪录的水平,但自4 月以来大幅下 跌,主要是由于 美国取得丰收。国际市场食糖价格普遍坚挺,原因是世界食糖消费量相对于产量持 续大幅增加。

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    The SWSR is a reference document on the status of global soil resources that provides regional assessments of soil change. The information is based on peer-reviewed scientific literature, complemented with expert knowledge and project outputs. It provides a description and a ranking of ten major soil threats that endanger ecosystem functions, goods and services globally and in each region separately. Additionally, it describes direct and indirect pressures on soils and ways and means to combat s oil degradation. The report contains a Synthesis report for policy makers that summarizes its findings, conclusions and recommendations.

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    The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement recognizes the need for effective and progressive responses to the urgent threat of climate change, through mitigation and adaptation measures, while taking into account the particular vulnerabilities of food production systems. The inclusion of adaptation measures in the fisheries and aquaculture sector is currently hampered by a widespread lack of targeted analyses of the sector’s vulnerabilities to climate change and associated risks, as well as the opportunities and responses available. This report provides the most up-to-date information on the disaggregated impacts of climate change for marine and inland fisheries, and aquaculture, in the context of poverty alleviation and the differential dependency of countries on fish and fishery resources. The work is based on model projections, data analyses, as well as national, regional and basin-scale expert assessments. The results indicate that climate change will lead to significant changes in the availability and trade of fish products, with potentially important geopolitical and economic consequences, especially for those countries most dependent on the sector.
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    Biosecurity guide for live poultry markets 2015
    Live poultry markets are an important part of the poultry supply chain in many parts of the world. However, the emergence of avian influenza viruses that can cause severe disease in humans which results from working in or visiting contaminated markets means that some long-standing practices are no longer acceptable. This guide has been produced for live poultry market managers and provides practical options for improving the hygiene and biosecurity of their markets. The guide is structured as a series of questions based on real-life situations and problems. It also contains information on appropriate ways to decontaminate markets and the equipment and vehicles that enter markets. It does not provide a ‘one-size-fits-all’ solution for markets given that these vary from large wholesale markets with a daily throughput of tens of thousands of poultry to small roadside or village markets that operate once or twice per week. Instead, this guide offers a menu of options that can be used to fi nd cost-effective solutions for any type of market. A shift is already occurring away from live bird sales to centralized slaughter, but while live poultry markets continue to operate it is imperative that those that remain are managed in a way that reduces the risk of infection of poultry and humans with avian influenza viruses. This guide will help market managers to achieve this goal.