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How do extreme weather events affect livestock herders’ welfare? Evidence from Kyrgyzstan














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    Mitigating persistent welfare losses due to weather shocks. The case of livestock herders in Kyrgyzstan
    FAO Agricultural Development Economics Policy Brief 10
    2018
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    Kyrgyzstan experienced an extremely cold winter in 2012, with heavy snowfall followed by a significant spring run-off. This harsh winter led to considerable livestock mortality and price rises for animal products, with a substantial impact on the welfare of livestock herding households. On average, households affected by the harsh winter experienced a 5 percent reduction in food consumption expenditure in the first year following the shock, and 8 percent reduction four years later with respect to households not exposed to this shock (Figure 1). The significant and persistent impact of the harsh winter is particularly evident for the wealthiest households, who typically own more animals and are, therefore, more exposed to the risk of climate induced animal mortality. For this population, food consumption expenditures declined by 24–27 percent in the short and medium terms as a result of the harsh winter with respect to wealthy households not exposed to the shock.
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    Food Security and Humanitarian Implications in West Africa and the Sahel. February 2013 2012
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    In Burkina Faso, the 2012-2013 gross national cereal production, that had not yet been made official and integrated into the regional consolidated results, is estimated at 4,898,544 tons. Compared to 2011-2012, cereal production increased by 33.6%. Compared to the average of the last five seasons, the increase in production is estimated at 26.9%. Off-season crops (November 2012 - April 2013) are ongoing and proceed normally in the region. Availability of vegetables such as garlic, onion, pepper and dried tomato improves significantly on Niger markets which generates additional household income for local producers (January 2013, Information System on Agricultural Markets Bulletin - cash crops in Niger). Irrigated and flooded rice crops are underway along the main rivers of the region (Senegal, Niger). Regarding the conditions of livestock, pastures are still stocked enough, however the decrease in feed and forage value due to lignification and the progressive drying of herbaceous contin ues. Watering conditions remain fairly good. The health and condition of animals is good overall. Sedentary herds are in the process of moving from wintering gathering areas to areas of origin (Afrique Verte).
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    Climate-change vulnerability in rural Zambia: the impact of an El Niño-induced shock on income and productivity 2019
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    This paper examines the impacts of the El Niño during the 2015/2016 season on maize productivity and income in rural Zambia. The analysis aims at identifying whether and how sustainable land management (SLM) practices and livelihood diversification strategies have contributed to moderate the impacts of such a weather shock. The analysis was conducted using a specifically designed survey called the El Niño Impact Assessment Survey (ENIAS), which is combined with the 2015 wave of the Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Surveys (RALS), as well as high resolution rainfall data from the Africa Rainfall Climatology version 2 (ARC2). This unique, integrated data set provides an opportunity to understand the impacts of shocks like El Niño that are expected to get more frequent and severe in Zambia, as well as understand the agricultural practices and livelihood strategies that can buffer household production and welfare from the impacts of such shocks to drive policy recommendations. Results show that households affected by the drought experienced a decrease in maize yield by around 20 percent, as well as a reduction in income up to 37 percent, all else equal. Practices that moderated the impact of the drought included livestock diversification, income diversification, and the adoption of agro-forestry. Interestingly, the use of minimum soil disturbance was not effective in moderating the yield and income effects of the drought. Policies to support livestock sector development, agroforestry adoption, and off -farm diversification should be prioritized as effective drought resiliency strategies in Zambia.

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