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Book (stand-alone)Nonlinear cointegration in the food-ethanol-oil system: evidence from smooth threshold vector error correction models
ESA Working Paper No. 14-01
2014Also available in:
No results found.We examine the nature of relationship between prices of crude oil, ethanol and grains (maize, wheat and rice). Our working hypothesis is that profit maximization, the US biofuel policies and automotive engine technology give rise to a nonlinear relationship between oil and ethanol prices, and by extension between oil and grains prices. While legislation sets a floor in the ethanol market, engine technology, which shapes fuel substitution, sets a ceiling. We explore price relationships in the foo d-ethanol-oil nexus by applying both discrete and smooth threshold error correction models. First, we find that oil prices are the long run drivers of ethanol and grains prices. Second, ethanol prices co-move with oil prices in the long run. However, in the short run, oil and ethanol prices are linked in a nonlinear manner. Ethanol prices appear to drift apart from the path as this is determined by oil prices, due to policy changes. Adjustment back to the long run equilibrium the path is rapid, less than two months, when the deviations are small. Large deviations take more time to be corrected. -
Book (stand-alone)The Brazilian ethanol programme: impacts on world ethanol and sugar markets
FAO COMMODITY AND TRADE POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER No. 1
2003Also available in:
No results found.The sugar market in Brazil has a strong relationship with the ethanol market. The Brazilian government has now abolished all the sugar market intervention measures except for the control on the ethanol-gasoline blend ratio. In this study, implications of a change in blend ratio to the sugar markets, particularly in its production resource use is investigated by applying a newly developed Ethanol-sugar market projection model. The model simulation result shows a moderately sized impact on the wor ld ethanol and sugar markets. -
Book (stand-alone)Bioenergy Environmental Impact Analysis (BIAS) of Ethanol Production from Sugar Cane in Tanzania 2010
Also available in:
No results found.This case study demonstrates strengths and weaknesses of the Bioenergy Environmental Impact Analysis framework (BIAS) in its draft form of 2009. The evaluation was conducted on the 21 000 ha bioethanol project of SEKAB near Bagamoyo, Tanzania. The study shows that the BIAS framework is a useful tool in guiding the analysis of biofuel projects. It also underlines evidence that substantial site-specific data are required to sufficiently evaluate impact on all environmental areas: biodiversity, w ater, soil and greenhouse gases (GHG), especially soil carbon. Specific indicator values for thresholds are missing, but may be of limited usefulness in specific cases, due to necessary adaptation to local conditions.
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