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Book (stand-alone)Crop Prospects and Food Situation - No. 3, October 2011 2011Prospects for global cereal production in 2011 have improved since September, following better expectations for rice and wheat. At the expected record level of 2 310 million tonnes, world cereal production would be 3 percent, or 68 million tonnes, above the reduced 2010 level. n In September, international prices of all cereals with the exception of rice fell sharply, triggered by global economic slowdown and the strengthening of the US dollar as well as large export supplies from th e Black Sea region. The expected slower recovery in the world economy will bring more uncertainty to the food security situation...
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Book (series)Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No.3, 8 October 2015 2015World cereal supply and demand balance in the 2015/16 marketing season is likely to remain in a generally comfortable situation. While world cereal production is expected to fall below last year’s record, supplies will be almost sufficient to meet the projected demand, requiring only a small reduction in global inventories by the end of the season. AFRICA: Aggregate 2015 cereal production is forecast to decline mostly on account of poor prospects in East Africa and an expected reduced output i n Southern Africa. Average crops are foreseen in West and Central Africa, while a recovery in North Africa’s production averted a sharper regional decline. In East Africa, pockets of starvation have been reported in some conflict-affected areas of South Sudan calling for urgent and concerted efforts to avert a disaster. In addition, food security conditions deteriorated in Southern Africa, while persistent and disruptive conflicts in parts of Central, East and West Africa continue to devastate t he agricultural sector and acutely impact on food security conditions. ASIA: Despite a forecast increase in the 2015 aggregate regional cereal harvest, mainly as result of a record output forecast in China, dry weather diminished production in India and several countries of the Far East subregion. In the Near East, a production recovery is foreseen from last year’s drought-affected output, but conflicts in Iraq, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen continue to aggravate the humanitarian crisis. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: El Niño-associated dry weather conditions have sharply reduced crop production forecasts in Central America and the Caribbean. On the other hand, record maize harvests are estimated in South America and Mexico, while a bumper wheat output is also forecast in South America. Strong El Niño predicted to persist into early 2016. El Niño-related dry weather patterns have already adversely impacted on production in parts of Asia and Central America and the Caribbe an. The expected prevalence and continuation of El Niño-associated weather patterns into 2016 have raised alarms in many parts of the world where the cropping season has started or is about to start, including parts of Asia and Southern Africa. FAO estimates that, globally, 35 countries, including 28 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food.
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