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Food Price Monitoring and Analysis Bulletin #7, 9 September 2021














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    Export prices of grains declined in June, influenced by generally good supply prospects, while international rice prices also fell as high freight costs and container shortages limited sales. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains continue at exceptionally high levels in the Sudan and South Sudan, underpinned by insufficient supplies and severe macro-economic difficulties. Prices reached new record highs in the Sudan following a further depreciation of the national currency on the parallel market and the lifting of fuel subsidies, which inflated transport costs. In West Africa, seasonal upward trends in prices of domestically produced coarse grains continued in June in most countries, exacerbated by supply chain bottlenecks stemming from measures still in place to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as compromised security conditions in some parts, amidst solid domestic demand. As in previous months, in several markets, prices were significantly higher than a year earlier.
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    International prices of grains increased overall again in May although they began to fall towards the end of the month on improved production prospects. International prices of rice held steady in May, with logistics problems and high shipping costs keeping trading activity subdued throughout the month. In East Africa, prices of coarse grains remained at near-record to record levels in the Sudan and South Sudan, underpinned by insufficient supplies and severe macro-economic difficulties, including currency weakness sustaining food inflation. Prices of maize grain in South Africa climbed moderately in May and remained up on a yearly basis, as the effects of higher prices on the international market have outweighed downward pressure from a substantial maize crop estimated for 2021. In South America, prices of yellow maize increased further in the key producing countries, Argentina and Brazil, remaining well above their year-earlier levels reflecting upward pressure from record export sales and adverse dry crop conditions, respectively. Markets in both countries were also supported by the strong upward trends in international price quotations.
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    Seasonal supplies continued to weigh on the world prices of wheat and maize in August 2023, as their harvesting operations were concluded in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, respectively. By contrast, international rice prices rose to their highest level in 15 years, in nominal terms, largely reflecting trade disruptions registered in the aftermath of India’s July ban on Indica white rice exports. In most countries monitored by FAO, domestic prices of basic food commodities persisted at year-on-year higher levels in July and August 2023 due to the impact of conflict and insecurity, adverse weather, high prices of agricultural inputs, elevated distribution costs and currency weaknesses. On a monthly basis, domestic rice prices increased seasonally in most countries in East Asia, while supplies from 2023 harvests supported a decline in maize prices in Southern Africa and South America. In Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia countries and in East Asia, ample carryover stocks and supplies from recent harvests underpinned month-on-month declines in wheat and wheat flour prices.

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