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Investing in African Livestock: business opportunities in 2030-2050








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    Book (stand-alone)
    World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision
    ESA Working paper No. 12-03
    2012
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    This paper is a re-make of Chapters 1-3 of the Interim Report World Agriculture: towards 2030/2050 (FAO, 2006). In addition, this new paper includes a Chapter 4 on production factors (land, water, yields, fertilizers). Revised and more recent data have been used as basis for the new projections, as follows: (a) updated historical data from the Food Balance Sheets 1961-2007 as of June 2010; (b) undernourishment estimates from The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2010 (SOFI) and related new p arameters (CVs, minimum daily energy requirements) are used in the projections; (c) new population data and projections from the UN World Population Prospects - Revision of 2008; (d) new GDP data and projections from the World Bank; (e) a new base year of 2005/2007 (the previous edition used the base year 1999/2001); (f) updated estimates of land resources from the new evaluation of the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) study of FAO and IIASA. Estimates of land under forest and in protected ar eas from the GAEZ are taken into account and excluded from the estimates of land areas suitable for crop production into which agriculture could expand in the future; (g) updated estimates of existing irrigation, renewable water resources and potentials for irrigation expansion; and (h) changes in the text as required by the new historical data and projections.
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    Mapping supply and demand for animal-source foods to 2030 2011
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    Around 2.6 billion people in the developing world are estimated to have to make a living on less than $2 a day and of these, about 1.4 billion are ‘extremely’ poor; surviving on less than $1.25 a day. Nearly three quarters of the extremely poor – that is around 1 billion people – live in rural areas and, despite growing urbanization, more than half of the ‘dollar-poor’ will reside in rural areas until about 2035. Most rural households depend on agriculture as part of their livelihood and livesto ck commonly form an integral part of their production system. On the other hand, to a large extent driven by increasing per capita incomes, the livestock sector has become one of the fastest developing agricultural sub-sectors, exerting substantial pressure on natural resources as well as on traditional production (and marketing) practices. In the face of these opposing forces, guiding livestock sector development on a pathway that balances the interests of low and high income households and regions as well as the interest of current and future generations poses a tremendous challenge to policymakers and development practioners. Furthermore, technologies are rapidly changing while at the same time countries are engaging in institutional ‘experiments’ through planned and un-planned restructuring of their livestock and related industries, making it difficult for anyone to keep abreast with current realities. This ‘Working Paper’ Series pulls together into a single series different strands of work on the wide range of topics covered by the Animal Production and Health Division with the aim of providing ‘fresh’ information on developments in various regions of the globe, some of which is hoped may contribute to foster sustainable and equitable livestock sector development. In 2006 the FAO Global Perspective Studies Unit revised their estimates of prospective developments in food demand and consumption to 2030/2050 (FAO, 2006b). In this paper we take the estimates of supp ly and demand for animal-source foods and disaggregate them spatially for the years 2000 and 2030. By so doing we are able to present detailed maps and tables of change in supply and demand that are of direct use to researchers and decision makers in the livestock sector.
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    The Resource Outlook to 2050: by how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050?
    Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in 2050
    2009
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    This paper discusses the natural resource implications of the latest FAO food and agriculture baseline projections to 2050 (FAO, 2006a). These projections offer a comprehensive (food and feed demand, including all foreseeable diet changes, trade and production) and consistent picture of the food and agricultural situation in 2030 and 2050. The main purpose of this paper is to provide an indication of the additional demands on natural resources derived from the crop production levels in 2 030 and 2050 as foreseen in the FAO 2006 projections. It does not deal with additional demand for agricultural products used as feedstock in biofuel production or the impacts of climate change (these are dealt with in another paper, G. Fischer 2009, for this expert meeting), nor the additional production needed to eliminate (or to accelerate the elimination of) the remaining undernourishment in 2050. Growth in agricultural production will continue to slow down as a consequence of the s lowdown in population growth and of the fact that an ever increasing share of world population is reaching medium to high levels of food consumption. Nevertheless, agricultural production would still need to increase by 70 percent (nearly 100 percent in developing countries) by 2050 to cope with a 40 percent increase in world population and to raise average food consumption to 3130 kcal per person per day by 2050. This translates into an additional billion tonnes of cereals and 200 mil lion tonnes of meat to be produced annually by 2050 (as compared with production in 2005/07).

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