APPENDIX

APPENDIX 1: Projection methods
APPENDIX 2: Summary tables

Appendix 1: Projection methods.

For the 18 countries studied not all products and activities are modelled and if they are modelled this has not been done uniformly by the same method. In table A1.1 - 5 the projection methods used are shown. The methods applied are:

1. Projections are most frequently based on econometric models. The estimation method is briefly described in the main text and more fully in Working paper no 2. The projection method is described in section ‘Projection Method’ above. The models are estimated by country, product and activity. The notation in the Tables is ‘E’.

2. For smaller consumers a time serie cross section model is estimated that is specified for the set of countries studied. This type of models are also denoted ‘E’.

3. For a given country and product models are estimated for domestic demand, imports demand (or apparent consumption) and exports supply. Since domestic demand by definition equals domestic supply these three components give consumption, production and net trade. These projections are called ‘calculated’ and are denoted ‘C’.

4. For some countries, products and activities quantities are quite small and/or can vary substantially over time. Under these circumstances models are not applied. Alternative ways to make projections are Fixed Trend or Fixed Constant. Fixed Trend, denoted FT, is applied where there is a trend in the observed time series. The trend is estimated as a linear trend based on the historical trend pattern. If there is no trend, or hardly visible trend, the Fixed Constant (FC) method applies. This means using the average of the five last years (the base year value) as projections.

5. From the time series cross section models for ‘smaller countries’ consumption projections are given. These countries are essentially net importers of wood products. The imports can, without substantial loss of precision, be regarded as being an approximately constant share of consumption. The self-suffiency ratio (production as a fraction of consumption) can also be obtained and in this way production can be calculated. In these cases the share is calculated for the base year and then multiplied by consumption projections for the periods ahead. This method is called Fixed Share, denoted ‘FS’.

Appendix 2: Summary tables

Summary table