V. INTERNATIONAL TRADE

The bulk of the white maize is consumed domestically in producing countries so that the size of international trade is limited. World trade is estimated to range between 1.5 and 2.0 million tons in normal years, a volume which does not seem to have changed significantly over the past 10-15 years (Table 5). At that level, world trade would represent between 2 and 3 percent of global trade in all types of maize. However, shipped volumes can vary substantially from one year to another. The sharp decline in 1992, followed by an almost doubling in export shipments in the ensuing year and another 80 percent increase in 1994, was not an exception and is consistent with historical patterns. The main reason for such sharp variations is that traditionally, at least until the early 1990s, about three-quarters of world export supplies originated in one geographical area, southern Africa. In this highly drought-prone location, weather often tends to affect the maize crop in the same direction throughout the sub-region. In general, limited and irregular effective import demand and unstable export supplies are major factors which continue to keep world trade in white maize at relatively low and fluctuating levels.

The Republic of South Africa continues to be the world's largest supplier of white maize to the international market. In fact, only South Africa has an explicit policy objective to export white maize. In the past, Zimbabwe was the second largest exporting country. However, more stable outlets and rising profitability in growing white maize in the United States seem to have changed market shares in recent years in favour of the latter. Other regular or sporadic exporters of some significance have included Uganda, Kenya, Malawi and Zambia, but in recent years the latter three have become net importers. As domestic prices in most of these countries have often exceeded world market price levels, and most export sales involve high transport costs, foreign sales usually consist of excess production beyond domestic requirements in years of favourable growing conditions, a fundamental drawback for any market development.

In the Republic of South Africa, all maize used to be bought and sold under a single channel marketing system, administered by the Maize Board . Annual quantities approved by the Government for exports had been largely sold under a tender system to private traders by the Board⁷. Export subsidies, when required, were financed through price margins between the Board's domestic purchase and sales prices. A new system entered into force on 1 May 1995, under which domestic trade has been liberalized but subjected to a levy on all transactions in order to provide financial support to exports when needed and compatible with the country's WTO commitment.

⁷The Maize Board was abolished at the end of April 1997, but its information and import inspection services would continue.

Although Zimbabwe is one of the major exporting countries of white maize, its main policy objective is to be self-sufficient. Long transport distances, handling and rolling stock bottlenecks as well as limited facilities and financial resources to hold stocks in the face of highly fluctuating production, curb the competitiveness of this landlocked country on the international market. Consequently, white maize exports are largely confined to nearby countries where Zimbabwe has a transport advantage, such as to Malawi, Mozambique, Zaire (Shaba Province) and Zambia. Domestic trade in maize has been completely liberalized and the Government's farm support price system has been abolished. Only the import and export monopoly has been retained by the National Grain Marketing Board.

Exports of white maize from the United States account for only slightly more than one percent of its total maize exports. This is largely a result of the traditional lack of a stable, effective import demand.

TABLE 5 - White maize: estimated world exports¹

	1976-80 average	1981-85 average	1986-90 average	1991	1992	1993	1994
	thousand tons
MAIN EXPORTERS	1086.2	1286.4	1581.6	995.3	737.0	1 272.8	3 149.0
South Africa2	621.0	888.0	972.6	506.0	132.0	522.0	1 696.0
United States3	156.8	126.6	272.8	302.3	605.0	668.8	802.0
Zimbabwe4	308.4	271.8	336.2	187.0	-	82.0	651.0
OTHERS	110.8	293.4	348.5	317.0	125.7	672.8	391.0
Africa	95.4	266.6	342.8	313.0	106.4	567.4	330.8
Benin	...	...	18.0	20.0F	4.0	30.0F	25.0F
Cote d'Ivoire	0.4	20.2	22.0	10.0F	-	5.0F	5.0F
Kenya	53.0	122.5	153.8	10.0	-	-	-
Malawi	-	88.8	6.4	60.0	27.0	35.0	-
Namibia	...	...	1.1	17.5	-	1.6	-
Swaziland	...	...	5.0	10.0	10.0	10.0
Tanzania	17.9	...	22.05		-	-	-
Uganda	-	30.1	2.0	9.5	15.0	370.0	300.0F
Zambia	19.2	-	112.0	175.0	50.0	115.0	-
Others	4.9	5.0	0.5	1.0	0.4F	0.8F	0.8F
Latin America and Caribbean	15.4	26.8	5.7	4.0	19.3	105.4	60.2
El Salvador	5.4	7.0	0.6	-	1.5	-	-
Guatemala	3.2	5.5	-			-	-
Honduras	3.7	7.7	0.0			-	-
Mexico	0.3	6.1	5.1	4.0F	17.8	45.4	0.2P
Venezuela	-	-	-	-	-	60.0P	60.0F
Others	2.8	0.5	-			-	-
WORLD TOTAL	1197.0	1579.8	1930.0	1312.3	862.7	1945.6	3 540.0

F = FAO estimate.
...= not available
- = less than 500 tons, if any.
¹ Marketing years beginning the year shown.
² May/April.
³ Calendar.
⁴ April/March
⁵ Estimated to include about 30 percent of yellow maize.

Source:

Kenya: Annual Reports, USDA Grain and Feed Market News.
South Africa: Maize Board Annual Report, various years.
United States: US Federal Inspection Service, USDA Feed Grain and Market News.
Zimbabwe: Grain Marketing Board, Annual Reports, various years.
Others: National Statistics, FAO and World Food Programme.

However, annual export sales, being fully exposed to market forces, showed a sharp increase (from 300,000 tons in 1991 to 800,000 tons in 1994) primarily in response to trade liberalization measures by some of its traditional customers in Latin America.

As only a very small number of countries publish statistics on white maize, most of the import estimates had to be made on the basis of shipments from exporting countries by destination (Table 6). Over time, developing countries have become the principal importers of white maize. Their share has increased from an annual average of 50 percent during 1981-85 to about 80 percent in the early 1990s. This was largely the result of the substantial decline in purchases by Japan, which was the largest importer in the world in the early 1980s. Among the developing countries, imports into sub-Saharan Africa are estimated to account for about half of world trade. In this sub-region, over 20 countries have been identified as importers of white maize of which, however, only three (Lesotho, Mozambique and Zaire) appear to regularly import over 50,000 tons per annum. The principal importers in Latin America and the Caribbean are Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela, accounting together for over 90 percent of all shipments to this area. Imports by developing countries in Asia are insignificant.

International trade flows are highly regionalized. In the early 1990s, 80 percent of all shipments from the United States were directed towards Latin America and the Caribbean and about three-quarters of the exports from South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe were estimated to have remained in sub-Saharan Africa. Although the bulk of the international trade in white maize is on commercial terms, rising quantities became available in the form of food aid since the beginning of the 1980s. Estimates indicate that during the early 1990s, food aid shipments represented about half of total African white maize imports, originating from other developing countries in the region and financed under triangular transactions.

TABLE 6 - White maize: estimated imports as reflected in shipments by exporting countries¹

			1981-85 average	1986-90 average	1991	1992	1993	1994
			thousand tons
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES			680.0	998.2	1 010.0	711.3	1 661.4	3159.1
Africa			4790	6052	697.5	453.4	10202	1 666.0
	Western Africa		200	88	4.0	-	32.5	20.6
		Cape Verde	-	8.8	4.0	-	70	4.2
		Ghana	9.0	-	-	-	205	12.0
		Others	11.0	-	-	-	50	4.4
	Central Africa		35.0	55.2	206.7	50.0	309.7	213.0
		Angola	5.0	22.0	30.8	-	13.9	285
		Zaire	300	33.2	175.9	50.0	295.8	183.3
		Others	-	-	-	-	-	1.2
	Eastern Africa		142.0	245.2	258.0	276.9	375.9	1 172.5
		Ethiopia	3.0	5.2	0.9	-	-	120.0
		Kenya	-	-	-	65.0	955	405.7
		Malawi	4.0	730	50.4	3.0	20.0	115.5
		Mozambique	48.0	123.0	129.0	280	81.7	270.4
		Rwanda	-	-	-	11.0	36.2	54.4
		Somalia	2.0	7.0	5.5	36	-	5.0
		Sudan	-	-	2.5	4.0	12.3	22.4
		Tanzania	290	7.0	13.0	31.1	299	49.9
		Zambia	56.0	30.0	154	-	5.3	40.0
		Zimbabwe	-	-	-	131.2	80.0	0.1
		Others	-	-	41.3	-	150	89.1
	Southern Africa		282.0	296.0	215.9	126.5	302.1	2599
		Botswana	98.0	97.0	48.2	11.0	40.0	48.0
		Lesotho	1030	132.0	125.6	640	160.0	128.2
		Namibia	35.0	40.0	17.1	46.5	85.0	50.0
		Swaziland	46.0	27.0	25.0	5.0	17.1	33.7
Asia			2.0	196.0	5.3	4.6	12.0	293.4
	Hong Kong		-	-	1.6	1.7	-	-
	Korea Republic		-	77.0	-	2.4	12.0	113.7
	Others		2.0	1190	3.7	0.5	-	179.7
Latin America and Caribbean			199.0	197.0	307.1	253.0	629.2	1 199.7
	Caribbean		-	-	0.4	0.6	1.0	19.8
	Central America		36.0	192.0	3060	235.5	195.2	663.6
		Dominican Republic	2.0	7.0	-	-	-	-
		Honduras	2.0	20	145	0.2	150	35.3
		Jamaica	1.0	200	-	56	5 0	5.0
		Mexico	29.0	163.0	267.1	224.0	175.2	576.0
		Others	2.0	-	24.4	5.7	-	47.3
	South America		163.0	5.0	0.7	169	4330	516.3
		Colombia	2.0	5.0	-	13.8	100.0	138.0
		Venezuela	161.0	-	-	3.0	3330	346.9
		Others	-	-	0.7	0.1	-	31.4
Oceania			-	-	0.1	0.3	-	-
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES			476.0	352.0	267.4	95.6	250.2	263.9
Canada			23.0	260	12.6	14.0	-	-
Japan			419.0	272.0	2484	49.9	1325	176.9
South Africa			18 0	25.0	-	300	116.3	700
EC			16.0	29.0	6.4	1.7	1.4	1.9
	France		-	-	0.9	-	0.7	0.1
	Italy		-	1.0	0.9	0.4	0.7	1.0
	Netherlands		7.0	30	0.1	0.6	-	06
	Spain		-	20.0	0 1	-	-	-
	United Kingdom		6.0	-	34	0.7	-	0.1
	Others		3.0	50	1.0	-	-	0.1
Others			-	-	25	2.3	-	15.1
Unidentified2			423.8	5798	325	45.4	340	117.0
WORLD			1579.8	1 930.0	1 312.3	862,7	1945.6	3540.0

Note: - = less than 500 tons, if any.
Source: FAO.

¹ Including shipments from the United States on a calendar year basis, and from South Africa, Zimbabwe and Kenya for national marketing years, beginning in the year shown.

² Up to 1989, mainly shipments from South Africa.