FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 1998

PART II : POSITION BY SUB-REGION

Planting of main season crops has started in southern Africa; only irrigated winter wheat is currently being harvested in the sub-region. Crops in several countries in eastern Africa are maturing or being harvested, while harvesting of main season crops has commenced in Ethiopia and Sudan. Harvesting is underway in the coastal countries of western Africa, while the rainy season has come to a close in Sahelian countries.

In eastern Africa, harvesting of the 1998 cereal crops is underway in the northern countries of the sub-region while it has been completed in the southern parts. The 1998 aggregate sub-regional output is anticipated to increase substantially over the reduced level of last year. Despite an erratic start of the rainy season in some countries, widespread and abundant rains from mid-July generally benefited the developing crops, some localized flooding and crop losses notwithstanding. However, in Somalia, the 1998 main "Gu" season crop was sharply reduced by dry weather, lower plantings and pest infestations. This is the fifth successive poor cereal harvest. The outlook for the 1998/99 secondary "Deyr" crops is poor due to dry weather. In Tanzania, the 1998 food production was estimated at one-third above the poor level of last year and also above average. Abundant rains during the season encouraged farmers to cultivate more land and generally boosted yields. In Uganda, the output of the 1998 first season foodcrops is estimated to be satisfactory despite reduced crops in some areas. In Rwanda and Burundi, the 1998 food production increased substantially over the previous year and reached the pre-civil strife average levels. In Kenya, the "long rains" maize crop is forecast at 2.3 million tonnes, a substantial recovery from last year’s reduced level. Assuming normal "short rains" production early next year, the 1998/99 aggregate maize output is projected at 2.8 million tonnes. In Ethiopia, the forecast for this year's cereal and pulse crops points to an above-average harvest, estimated to be one-third higher than last year and close to the 1996 record harvest. In Eritrea, production of grains is expected to recover significantly from the reduced harvest of the past two years. In Sudan, despite serious floods in central and northern parts, overall prospects for this year’s coarse grain harvest are favourable.

The aggregate cereal import requirement of the sub-region in marketing year 1998/99 is estimated at 1.9 million tonnes. Commercial imports are estimated at 1.7 million tonnes and the food aid requirements at some 0.2 million tonnes. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS up to November amount to 0.1 million tonnes, with 35 000 tonnes delivered so far.

In southern Africa, the 1998/99 cropping season has started under more favourable conditions than the last season. Normal to above-normal rains were received in September and October in parts of Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe, facilitating land preparation and early sowing of the 1998/99 coarse grain crop. The weather outlook for the season appears to be favourable in most parts of the sub-region. In South Africa, the output of the 1998 irrigated wheat crop, now being harvested, is estimated at 1.47 million tonnes, 36 percent below last year’s and also below average, mainly due to a sharp reduction in the area sown in response to lower international and domestic wheat prices. In contrast, output is expected to be above average in Zambia and Zimbabwe, estimated at 71 000 tonnes and 250 000 tonnes, respectively.

Aggregate output of cereals in 1998 is currently estimated at 19 million tonnes, some 15 percent lower than last year's above-average crop and below average, mainly due to reduced plantings and unfavourable weather in several countries. In Angola, despite an improvement in production, the food supply situation is expected to tighten in the coming months with large areas in need of food aid, reflecting the volatile security situation. In Lesotho, Namibia and Zambia, where cereal production in 1998 declined significantly, the food supply situation is expected to be tight until the next harvest in April/May 1999. Other countries in the sub-region, including Botswana, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique and Swaziland will have cereal shortfalls that are expected to be covered mainly by commercial imports, with limited food aid. Given the large carryover stocks, the sharp reduction in maize production in South Africa is unlikely to seriously limit the country's capacity to export maize to the deficit countries in the sub-region.

In western Africa, several joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Missions were fielded in October/November to eight of the nine CILSS member countries to review the outcome of the 1998 cropping season, including an assessment of the preliminary cereal production estimates made by the national agricultural statistical services. It was not possible to field a mission to Guinea-Bissau this year due to the on-going civil conflict.

The Missions have estimated the 1998 aggregate cereal production in the nine CILSS countries at a record 10.6 million tonnes, 31 percent higher than in 1997 and about 17 percent above the average of the last five years. Record crops are estimated in Chad, Mali and Niger. Above-average output is anticipated in The Gambia, about average in Burkina Faso and Senegal, and below average in Cape Verde and Mauritania. Cereal production in Guinea-Bissau is estimated at 120 000 tonnes, well below average mainly due to the ongoing civil strife. It is also sharply reduced in Cape Verde, which experienced a prolonged dry spell in October. These estimates should be viewed as preliminary, as the national surveys were generally carried out before the end of the harvest and include forecasts for recession and off-season crops yet to be planted. The estimates may, therefore, have to be revised in the coming months, but is unlikely that there will be a significant change in the overall picture which indicates average to above-average production in the main producing countries.

In the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, harvest prospects are generally favourable in Benin, Nigeria and Togo but less favourable in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Liberia and Sierra Leone remain heavily dependent on international food assistance despite some improvement in food production.

Following the generally satisfactory harvests, the food supply situation is expected to be stable during the 1998/99 marketing year, with the exception of Guinea-Bissau, Liberia and Sierra Leone. In Cape Verde, the food supply situation is not anticipated to be critical despite the very reduced harvest, as substantial commercial cereal imports and food aid are planned. In some areas of Burkina Faso, southern Chad, Mauritania, central and northern Senegal, sections of the local populations will be at risk of food shortages, following poor harvests or flooding, and may require some assistance. In other areas, as a result of average to record crops, farmers' stocks can be replenished. The replenishment of the national security stocks will also be facilitated this year by lower cereal prices on local markets. Localized deficits in some areas can be covered by transfers from surplus areas. Exportable surpluses will also be available, notably from Mali and Niger.

Imports of wheat and rice will remain necessary, but those of coarse grains will be limited. For ongoing food aid programmes, donors are urged to undertake local purchases (including through triangular transactions) of coarse grains to the maximum extent possible.

The aggregate cereal import requirement in the 1998/99 marketing year (November/October) of the nine Sahelian countries is estimated at 2.2 million tonnes. Food aid requirement is estimated at some 0.3 million tonnes, mainly wheat and rice.

For the coastal countries which have a January/December marketing year, the aggregate 1998 cereal import requirement is estimated at 3.5 million tonnes. Commercial imports are estimated at 3.2 million tonnes and the food aid requirement at 0.3 million tonnes. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late November 1998 amount to 277 000 tonnes and 223 000 tonnes have been delivered so far.

In central Africa, crop prospects are favourable in Central African Republic but poor in northern Cameroon. Civil strife in the Democratic Republic of Congo since early August is hampering agricultural and marketing activities in the eastern part of the country, where increasing population displacement is reported.

For the countries of the sub-region, all of which have a January/December marketing year, the 1998 cereal import requirement is estimated at 750 000 tonnes. The food aid requirement is estimated at 60 000 tonnes. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late November 1998 amount to 15 000 tonnes, of which 4 000 tonnes have been delivered.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Cereal Imports and Food Aid Requirements by Sub-Region (in thousand tonnes)