FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 2000 ETHIOPIA 17

ETHIOPIA

Area:

976 680 sq.km

Climate:

Northern coastal area and lowlands in south and east are semi-arid to arid; rest of country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter.

Population:

61.67 million (1999 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$ 100 (1998)

Specific characteristics of the country:

Low-income food-deficit country

Logistics:

Land-locked country, roads inadequate

Major foodcrops:

Maize, teff, barley, sorghum, wheat, pulses, enset (false banana)

Marketing year:

January/December; Lean season: August-November

Share of cereals in total calorie intake:

69 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Prospects for the 2000 secondary "Belg" season crops, to be harvested from June, are unfavorable reflecting continued drought. The Belg crop accounts for around 8 to 10 percent of annual cereal and pulse production but in some of the northern parts of the country, it provides important amounts of the annual grain production. The failure of last year's Belg season has severely affected the food supply situation of a large number of people and was exacerbated by the continued drought through the 1999 main season in these areas. The 1999/2000 main "Meher" season grain harvest was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in December at 10.7 million tonnes, some 6 percent below the previous year's outturn but 22 percent higher than the poor year of 1997. The most important factors affecting production were the poor Belg rains and the late start of the Meher rains.

The food supply situation in pastoral areas of the east and south, bordering Somalia and Kenya, particularly the Somali region, which have had three consecutive years of little or no rainfall, gives cause for serious concern. The on-going drought has already killed large number of livestock and people are migrating in search of water and food. With a below-average Belg crop of about 250 000 tonnes anticipated for 2000, due to continued shortages of oxen and possibly of seed, the Mission estimates the national import requirement to be 764 000 tonnes - significantly above last year's level. A net relief food aid requirement in 2000 of almost 652 000 tonnes is estimated to support 7.8 million people affected by severe food shortages resulting from weather related hazards. In addition to the relief needs caused by natural disasters, food aid will also be needed for IDPs from the border areas with Eritrea, who have been unable to plant their land and have lost income-earning opportunities. However, with poor rainfall during the current Belg season, the food aid requirement may increase significantly.

An Emergency Operation was jointly approved in February 2000 by FAO and WFP for food assistance to 2.3 million people affected by natural disasters, worth US$ 136.8 million for a period of nine months. This is part of appeal for US$ 190 million launched by the UN country team to avert another major humanitarian crisis in the country. Total pledges by mid-March amounted to 430 000 tonnes of which 80 000 tonnes have been delivered.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2000 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total

Normal Production 950 - 5 600 6 550

Normal Imports 700 5 75 780

of which: Structural food aid 380 5 65 450

2000 Domestic Availability 2 200 - 8 085 10 285

1999/2000 Production (rice in paddy terms) 2 200 - 7 685 9 885

1999/2000 Production (rice in milled terms) 2 200 - 7 685 9 885

Possible stock drawdown - - 400 400

2000 Utilization 2 900 20 8 205 11 125

Food Use 1 950 20 6 611 8 581

of which: local purchase requirement - - 200 200

Non-food use 550 - 1 544 2 094

Exports or Re-exports - - 50 50

Possible stock build up 400 - - 400

2000 Import Requirement 700 20 120 840

Anticipated commercial imports - 20 - 20

Food aid needs 700 - 120 820

Current Aid Position

Food aid pledges 424 1 5 430

of which: Delivered 79 - 1 80

Donor-financed purchases - - 25 25

of which: for local use - - 25 25

for export - - - -

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year) 31 0 103 134

Indexes

1999/2000 production as % of normal: 151

2000 import requirement as % of normal: 98

2000 food aid requirement as % of normal: 152

FAO/GIEWS - April 2000

Area:	976 680 sq.km
Climate:	Northern coastal area and lowlands in south and east are semi-arid to arid; rest of country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter.
Population:	61.67 million (1999 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$ 100 (1998)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics:	Land-locked country, roads inadequate
Major foodcrops:	Maize, teff, barley, sorghum, wheat, pulses, enset (false banana)
Marketing year:	January/December; Lean season: August-November
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	69 percent

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
Normal Production	950	-	5 600	6 550
Normal Imports	700	5	75	780
of which: Structural food aid	380	5	65	450
2000 Domestic Availability	2 200	-	8 085	10 285
1999/2000 Production (rice in paddy terms)	2 200	-	7 685	9 885
1999/2000 Production (rice in milled terms)	2 200	-	7 685	9 885
Possible stock drawdown	-	-	400	400
2000 Utilization	2 900	20	8 205	11 125
Food Use	1 950	20	6 611	8 581
of which: local purchase requirement	-	-	200	200
Non-food use	550	-	1 544	2 094
Exports or Re-exports	-	-	50	50
Possible stock build up	400	-	-	400
2000 Import Requirement	700	20	120	840
Anticipated commercial imports	-	20	-	20
Food aid needs	700	-	120	820
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges	424	1	5	430
of which: Delivered	79	-	1	80
Donor-financed purchases	-	-	25	25
of which: for local use	-	-	25	25
for export	-	-	-	-
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)	31	0	103	134
Indexes
1999/2000 production as % of normal:				151
2000 import requirement as % of normal:				98
2000 food aid requirement as % of normal:				152