Statistical appendix
Table A1. Global cereal supply and demand indicators
|
 |
| |
Average | | | | | | |
2000/01 - | | | | | | | |
2004/05 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 | | |
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) | | 1. Ratio of world stocks to utilization | | | | | | | | Wheat | 33.6 | 26.1 | 28.3 | 28.0 | 23.6 | 22.3 | | Coarse grains | 19.0 | 15.1 | 19.1 | 18.6 | 14.4 | 14.9 | | Rice | 30.2 | 25.5 | 23.8 | 25.1 | 24.3 | 23.9 | | Total cereals | 25.8 | 20.6 | 22.9 | 22.8 | 19.1 | 19.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2. Ratio of major grain exporters’ | | | | | | | |
supplies to normal market requirements | 121 | 117 | 137 | 133 | 117 | 117 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
3. Ratio of major exporters’ stocks | | | | | | | |
to their total disappearance | | | | | | | Wheat | 20.4 | 17.0 | 21.7 | 23.2 | 14.8 | 16.0 | | Coarse grains | 15.2 | 10.7 | 19.0 | 18.0 | 9.6 | 10.1 | | Rice | 19.2 | 15.9 | 13.2 | 15.7 | 14.3 | 13.9 | | Total cereals | 18.3 | 14.5 | 18.0 | 19.0 | 12.9 | 13.3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Annual trend |
Change from previous year | | |
growth rate | | |
1997-2006 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 | | |
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) | |
4. Changes in world cereal production | 0.6 | 3.4 | 9.1 | -1.1 | -2.5 | 4.8 | | | | | | | | | |
5. Changes in cereal production | | | | | | | |
in the LIFDCs | 1.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.2 | | | | | | | | | |
6. Changes in cereal production in | | | | | | | |
LIFDCs less China and India | 3.5 | 8.7 | -1.0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | -1.3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Average |
Change from previous year | | |
2000/01 - | | |
2004/05 |
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 | | |
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) | |
7. Selected cereal price indices: | | | | | | | | Wheat (July/June) | 110.8 | 21.3 | -1.1 | -1.0 | 5.2 | 25.4 | | Maize (July/June) | 100.2 | 18.6 | 7.1 | -15.2 | 6.4 | 44.0 | | Rice (Jan./Dec.) | 83.1 | -3.9 | 14.7 | 26.7 | -1.0 | 5.8 |
Notes:
Utilization is defined as the sum of food use, feed and other uses.
Cereals refer to wheat, coarse grains and rice; Grains refer to wheat and coarse grains.
Major Grain Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the United States; Major Rice Exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United
States, and Viet Nam.
Normal Market Requirements for major grain exporters are defined as the average of domestic utilization plus exports in the three preceding seasons.
Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season.
Price indices: The wheat price index has been constructed based on the IGC wheat price index, rebased to
July/June 1997/98-1999/00 = 100; For maize, the U.S. maize No. 2 Yellow (delivered U.S. Gulf ports) with base July/June, 1997/98-1999/00 = 100;
For rice, the FAO Rice Price Index, 1998-2000=100, is based on 16 rice export quotations. For 2006/07, all price indices are calculated based on average selected prices from the beginning of the seasons up to April 2007. Rice index refers to the first year shown.
Table A2. World cereal stocks1 (million tonnes)
|
|
| |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007
estimate |
2008
forecast | |
Total cereals |
484.2 |
416.4 |
465.6 |
471.1 |
401.5 |
400.8 | |
Wheat |
202.5 |
161.3 |
176.1 |
175.4 |
148.5 |
142.5 | | held by: | | | | | | | | - main exporters 2 | 39.1 | 39.0 | 55.4 | 58.6 | 36.9 | 40.5 | | - others | 163.4 | 122.3 | 120.7 | 116.8 | 111.6 | 102.0 | |
Coarse grains |
162.8 |
149.8 |
190.2 |
190.2 |
150.1 |
155.1 | | held by: | | | | | | | | - main exporters2 | 55.3 | 48.5 | 92.8 | 91.3 | 49.0 | 54.0 | | - others | 107.5 | 101.3 | 97.4 | 98.8 | 101.1 | 101.1 | |
Rice (milled basis) |
119.0 |
105.4 |
99.3 |
105.6 |
102.9 |
103.2 | | held by: | | | | | | | | - main exporters2 | 21.7 | 22.5 | 18.9 | 22.9 | 21.3 | 20.6 | | - others | 97.3 | 82.9 | 80.4 | 82.7 | 81.6 | 82.6 | |
Developed countries |
145.2 |
123.5 |
189.3 |
191.3 |
120.6 |
122.4 | | Australia | 5.2 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 15.6 | 5.3 | | | European Union 3 | 33.7 | 21.5 | 47.7 | 45.8 | 33.6 | | | Canada | 8.9 | 10.3 | 14.5 | 16.3 | 12.2 | | | Hungary 4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - | - | - | | | Japan | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.4 | | | Poland 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | - | - | - | | | Romania | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | | | Russian Federation | 12.5 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 8.5 | | | South Africa | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | | | Ukraine | 5.1 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.1 | | | United States | 45.1 | 44.4 | 74.7 | 71.7 | 34.9 | | |
Developing countries |
339.1 |
292.9 |
276.3 |
279.8 |
280.9 |
278.4 | |
Asia |
306.2 |
251.9 |
233.8 |
237.7 |
237.7 | | | China | 209.1 | 162.9 | 151.9 | 152.6 | 155.7 | | | India | 39.8 | 32.9 | 26.7 | 25.8 | 26.9 | | | Indonesia | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.3 | | | Iran (Islamic Republic of) | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | | | Korea, Republic of | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.2 | | | Pakistan | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 3.3 | | | Philippines | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.2 | | | Syrian Arab Republic | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 3.7 | | | Turkey | 8.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 3.8 | | |
Africa |
18.8 |
21.5 |
23.5 |
26.2 |
30.8 | | | Algeria | 2.5 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.7 | | | Egypt | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | | | Ethiopia | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.7 | | | Morocco | 1.8 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 3.3 | | | Nigeria | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.2 | | | Tunisia | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | | |
Central America |
5.6 |
5.9 |
6.5 |
5.4 |
4.7 | | | Mexico | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.1 | | |
South America |
8.2 |
13.3 |
12.3 |
10.2 |
7.5 | | | Argentina | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | | | Brazil | 1.6 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | |
1 Stock data are based on an aggregate of carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.
2 The major wheat and coarse grains exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the United States. The major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam.
3Up to 2004 15 member countries, from 2005 25 member countries.
4From 2005 included in EU 25.
Note: Based on official and unofficial estimates. Totals computed from unrounded data.
Table A3. Estimated Cereal Import Requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit countries 1( 000 tonnes )
|
|
| | |
2005/06 or 2006 |
2006/07 or 2007 | | |
Actual imports |
Total import
requirements
(excl. re-
exports) Marketing
year | |
Marketing
year |
Commercial
purchases |
Food aid |
Total commercial and aid |
Commercial
purchases |
Food aid | | |
AFRICA | |
36 651.8 |
2 709.1 |
39 360.9 |
35 375.6 |
16 003.2 |
1 583.9 |
14 419.3 | |
North Africa |
|
16 347.7 |
5.3 |
16 353.0 |
15 238.0 |
9 775.4 |
12.2 |
9 763.2 | | Egypt | July/June | 12 019.7 | 5.3 | 12 025.0 | 12 120.0 | 7 938.4 | 12.2 | 7 926.2 | | Morocco | July/June | 4 328.0 | 0.0 | 4 328.0 | 3 118.0 | 1 837.0 | 0.0 | 1 837.0 | |
Eastern Africa | |
4 053.9 |
1 685.9 |
5 739.8 |
4 743.0 |
2 016.9 |
873.8 |
1 143.1 | | Burundi | Jan./Dec. | 44.1 | 56.9 | 101.0 | 119.0 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 0.0 | | Comoros | Jan./Dec. | 42.6 | 0.0 | 42.6 | 41.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | | Djibouti | Jan./Dec. | 62.1 | 9.9 | 72.0 | 72.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | | Eritrea | Jan./Dec. | 176.6 | 42.0 | 218.6 | 296.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | | Ethiopia | Jan./Dec. | 9.5 | 552.1 | 561.6 | 241.0 | 197.3 | 197.3 | 0.0 | | Kenya | Oct./Sept. | 1 140.0 | 230.7 | 1 370.7 | 1 182.0 | 465.4 | 172.3 | 293.1 | | Rwanda | Jan./Dec. | 168.2 | 32.4 | 200.6 | 210.0 | 14.2 | 9.6 | 4.6 | | Somalia | Aug./July | 317.3 | 102.7 | 420.0 | 440.0 | 164.5 | 112.4 | 52.1 | | Sudan | Nov./Oct. | 1 225.0 | 508.8 | 1 733.8 | 1 380.0 | 592.3 | 281.6 | 310.7 | | Uganda | Jan./Dec. | 124.7 | 116.5 | 241.2 | 180.0 | 39.4 | 39.4 | 0.0 | | United Rep.of Tanzania | June/May | 743.8 | 33.9 | 777.7 | 582.0 | 521.1 | 40.1 | 481.0 | |
Southern Africa | |
3 810.9 |
456.9 |
4 267.8 |
3 045.0 |
2 835.0 |
323.4 |
2 511.6 | | Angola | April/March | 702.3 | 32.8 | 735.1 | 838.0 | 774.2 | 20.7 | 753.5 | | Lesotho | April/March | 193.7 | 15.6 | 209.3 | 213.0 | 182.9 | 7.9 | 175.0 | | Madagascar | April/March | 279.8 | 34.7 | 314.5 | 305.0 | 230.1 | 32.7 | 197.4 | | Malawi | April/March | 287.2 | 91.3 | 378.5 | 195.0 | 192.8 | 62.3 | 130.5 | | Mozambique | April/March | 945.6 | 107.0 | 1 052.6 | 845.0 | 836.4 | 96.4 | 740.0 | | Swaziland | May/April | 106.5 | 15.3 | 121.8 | 127.0 | 125.8 | 3.8 | 122.0 | | Zambia | May/April | 167.9 | 68.3 | 236.2 | 100.0 | 76.1 | 22.9 | 53.2 | | Zimbabwe | April/March | 1 127.9 | 91.9 | 1 219.8 | 422.0 | 416.7 | 76.7 | 340.0 | |
Western Africa | |
10 889.6 |
448.7 |
11 338.3 |
10 782.6 |
1 323.6 |
334.1 |
989.5 | |
Coastal Countries |
|
8 555.5 |
172.3 |
8 727.8 |
8 195.1 |
784.7 |
81.4 |
703.3 | | Benin | Jan./Dec. | 109.5 | 7.2 | 116.7 | 118.0 | 40.3 | 0.3 | 40.0 | | Côte d'Ivoire | Jan./Dec. | 1 492.1 | 14.7 | 1 506.8 | 1 256.1 | 53.8 | 9.3 | 44.5 | | Ghana | Jan./Dec. | 812.1 | 39.7 | 851.8 | 815.0 | 64.7 | 37.8 | 26.9 | | Guinea | Jan./Dec. | 499.7 | 22.9 | 522.6 | 467.0 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 0.7 | | Liberia | Jan./Dec. | 205.8 | 58.8 | 264.6 | 265.0 | 42.7 | 12.6 | 30.1 | | Nigeria | Jan./Dec. | 5 080.0 | 0.0 | 5 080.0 | 4 880.0 | 560.9 | 0.0 | 560.9 | | Sierra Leone | Jan./Dec. | 260.3 | 28.7 | 289.0 | 299.0 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 0.0 | | Togo | Jan./Dec. | 96.0 | 0.3 | 96.3 | 95.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | |
Sahelian Countries |
|
2 334.1 |
276.4 |
2 610.5 |
2 587.5 |
538.9 |
252.7 |
286.2 | | Burkina faso | Nov./Oct. | 294.0 | 26.4 | 320.4 | 348.1 | 35.8 | 22.7 | 13.1 | | Cape Verde | Nov./Oct. | 54.0 | 23.8 | 77.8 | 79.6 | 32.0 | 5.1 | 26.9 | | Chad | Nov./Oct. | 68.8 | 50.4 | 119.2 | 110.0 | 62.2 | 55.3 | 6.9 | | Gambia | Nov./Oct. | 105.7 | 7.6 | 113.3 | 114.7 | 21.0 | 4.8 | 16.2 | | Guinea-Bissau | Nov./Oct. | 70.8 | 4.4 | 75.2 | 85.7 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 1.0 | | Mali | Nov./Oct. | 243.4 | 27.5 | 270.9 | 236.6 | 76.8 | 40.8 | 36.0 | | Mauritania | Nov./Oct. | 341.8 | 59.7 | 401.5 | 321.0 | 55.2 | 34.6 | 20.6 | | Niger | Nov./Oct. | 252.7 | 62.1 | 314.8 | 292.4 | 71.2 | 71.0 | 0.2 | | Senegal | Nov./Oct. | 902.9 | 14.5 | 917.4 | 999.4 | 178.1 | 12.8 | 165.3 | |
Central Africa | |
1 549.7 |
112.3 |
1 662.0 |
1 567.0 |
52.3 |
40.4 |
11.9 | | Cameroon | Jan./Dec. | 619.3 | 7.0 | 626.3 | 630.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 9.7 | | Cent.Afr.Rep. | Jan./Dec. | 40.6 | 11.1 | 51.7 | 47.0 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 0.0 | | Congo | Jan./Dec. | 326.0 | 4.5 | 330.5 | 310.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.2 | | Dem.Rep.of the Congo | Jan./Dec. | 521.9 | 88.7 | 610.6 | 545.0 | 28.1 | 26.1 | 2.0 | | Eq. Guinea | Jan./Dec. | 27.5 | 0.0 | 27.5 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | Sao Tome and Principe | Jan./Dec. | 14.4 | 1.0 | 15.4 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Table A3. continued
|
|
| | |
2005/06 or 2006 |
2006/07 or 2007 | | |
Actual imports |
Total import
requirements
(excl. re-
exports) |
Import position 2 |
Marketing
year |
Commercial
purchases |
Food aid |
Total
commercial
and aid |
Total
commercial
and aid |
Food aid
allocated,
committed
or shipped |
Commercial
purchases | |
ASIA |
|
42 001.9 |
1 313.1 |
43 315.0 |
48 999.7 |
30 892.3 |
1 194.3 |
29 698.0 | |
CIS in Asia |
|
2 685.0 |
186.0 |
2 871.0 |
2 777.0 |
2 355.7 |
156.3 |
2 199.4 | | Armenia | July/June | 104.0 | 3.0 | 107.0 | 262.0 | 149.8 | 3.2 | 146.6 | | Azerbaijan | July/June | 1 045.0 | 6.0 | 1 051.0 | 1 060.0 | 1 015.0 | 83.5 | 931.5 | | Georgia | July/June | 878.0 | 15.0 | 893.0 | 726.0 | 668.1 | 13.7 | 654.4 | | Kyrgyzstan | July/June | 140.0 | 30.0 | 170.0 | 190.0 | 164.9 | 0.0 | 164.9 | | Tajikistan | July/June | 226.0 | 132.0 | 358.0 | 281.0 | 249.9 | 55.9 | 194.0 | | Turkmenistan | July/June | 13.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 39.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | Uzbekistan | July/June | 279.0 | 0.0 | 279.0 | 219.0 | 108.0 | 0.0 | 108.0 | |
Far East |
|
27 612.3 |
973.0 |
28 585.3 |
35 927.7 |
23 683.2 |
878.4 |
22 804.8 | | Bangladesh | July/June | 2 867.0 | 183.0 | 3 050.0 | 3 350.0 | 1 560.0 | 240.6 | 1 319.4 | | Bhutan | July/June | 70.7 | 0.3 | 71.0 | 71.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | | Cambodia | Jan./Dec. | 37.5 | 4.4 | 41.9 | 40.0 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 6.1 | | China | July/June | 10 533.0 | 0.0 | 10 533.0 | 10 012.0 | 4 752.7 | 0.0 | 4 752.7 | | D.P.R. of Korea | Nov./Oct. | 94.3 | 534.5 | 628.8 | 960.0 | 455.4 | 411.4 | 44.0 | | India | April/March | 721.6 | 37.0 | 758.6 | 6 602.3 | 6 531.3 | 35.3 | 6 496.0 | | Indonesia | April/March | 5 896.4 | 48.3 | 5 944.7 | 7 522.3 | 7 210.5 | 39.5 | 7 171.0 | | Lao, P.D.R. | Jan./Dec. | 18.3 | 9.5 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0.0 | | Mongolia | Oct./Sept. | 235.3 | 29.7 | 265.0 | 249.0 | 158.6 | 34.3 | 124.3 | | Nepal | July/June | 130.5 | 9.7 | 140.2 | 280.0 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 0.0 | | Pakistan | May/April | 932.1 | 0.0 | 932.1 | 422.1 | 71.1 | 19.9 | 51.2 | | Philippines | July/June | 4 835.0 | 71.0 | 4 906.0 | 5 181.2 | 2 845.8 | 76.6 | 2 769.2 | | Sri Lanka | Jan./Dec. | 1 190.6 | 45.6 | 1 236.2 | 1 150.0 | 75.9 | 5.0 | 70.9 | | Timor-Leste | July/June | 50.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
Near East |
|
11 704.6 |
154.1 |
11 858.7 |
10 295.0 |
4 853.4 |
159.6 |
4 693.8 | | Afghanistan | July/June | 433.4 | 47.6 | 481.0 | 740.0 | 225.4 | 145.1 | 80.3 | | Iraq | July/June | 5 980.2 | 28.8 | 6 009.0 | 4 430.0 | 2 922.3 | 7.4 | 2 914.9 | | Syrian Arab Republic | July/June | 2 267.8 | 7.0 | 2 274.8 | 2 300.0 | 1 405.0 | 7.1 | 1 397.9 | | Yemen | Jan./Dec. | 3 023.2 | 70.7 | 3 093.9 | 2 825.0 | 300.7 | 0.0 | 300.7 | |
CENTRAL AMERICA |
|
1 534.6 |
222.6 |
1 757.2 |
1 705.0 |
1 242.7 |
270.3 |
972.4 | | Haiti | July/June | 576.7 | 80.3 | 657.0 | 680.0 | 482.4 | 144.9 | 337.5 | | Honduras | July/June | 623.8 | 105.3 | 729.1 | 720.0 | 469.0 | 50.6 | 418.4 | | Nicaragua | July/June | 334.1 | 37.0 | 371.1 | 305.0 | 291.3 | 74.8 | 216.5 | |
SOUTH AMERICA |
|
993.7 |
17.0 |
1 010.7 |
946.0 |
695.2 |
30.0 |
665.2 | | Ecuador | July/June | 993.7 | 17.0 | 1 010.7 | 946.0 | 695.2 | 30.0 | 665.2 | |
OCEANIA |
|
415.7 |
0.0 |
415.7 |
415.7 |
53.3 |
0.0 |
53.3 | | Kiribati | Jan./Dec. | 8.7 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | Papua New Guinea | Jan./Dec. | 358.0 | 0.0 | 358.0 | 358.0 | 53.3 | 0.0 | 53.3 | | Solomon Islands | Jan./Dec. | 29.5 | 0.0 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | Tonga | Jan./Dec. | 6.4 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | Tuvalu | Jan./Dec. | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | Vanuatu | Jan./Dec. | 12.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
EUROPE |
|
1 617.7 |
1.2 |
1 618.9 |
1 550.0 |
705.2 |
0.0 |
705.2 | | Albania | July/June | 458.8 | 1.2 | 460.0 | 440.0 | 168.2 | 0.0 | 168.2 | | Belarus | July/June | 578.0 | 0.0 | 578.0 | 540.0 | 392.5 | 0.0 | 392.5 | | Bosnia and Herzegovina | July/June | 580.9 | 0.0 | 580.9 | 570.0 | 144.5 | 0.0 | 144.5 | |
TOTAL |
|
83 215.4 |
4 263.0 |
87 478.4 |
88 992.0 |
49 591.9 |
3 078.5 |
46 513.4 |
1 Includes food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$ 1 575 in 2004), which is in accordance with guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocation of food aid.
2 Estimates based on information available as of mid-April 2007
|
May 2007 
