World pulp and paper capacities, 1960-67

FAO STAFF

FAO survey 1964

This article is a slightly revised version of a paper presented to the Fifth Session of the FAO Advisory Committee on Pulp and Paper held in Rome, 27-28 April 1964.

THE PRESENT survey gives estimates of world pulp, paper and paperboard capacities for the years 1960, 1964, 1965, 1966 and 1967 on the basis of practical maximum capacities. In certain countries with planned economies, however, estimates refer to actual or planned output, which approximately equals maximum capacity.

Capacity estimates up to 1967 have been possible for 51 of 85 countries producing pulp or paper (see Annex 1); in other cases, estimates have been made only until 1966 (10 countries), 1966 (19 countries), or 1964 (5 countries).

FIGURE 1 - World pulp, paper and paperboard capacities by about 1965. A comparison of the 1969, 62, 1963 and 1964 FAO surveys.

World paper and paperboard capacities have grown in 1960-1964 by about 5 million tons per annum from 82.6 million tons to 103 million tons (Table 1 and Figure 1). This increase of 20 million tons in four-years is relatively high compared with the 1959 FAO estimate for paper and paperboard demand up to 1975 which corresponds to a required capacity increase of about 65 to 70 million tons from 1960 to 1975.

The foreseen paper and paperboard capacity of 108 million tons in 1965 is high compared with the 1969 FAO estimate for a demand of 90 million tons by 1965. Actual development of demand for paper and paperboard up to 1964 has exceeded, however, the FAO forecast. ¹

¹ The 1959 forecast (see World demand for paper to 1975) has been revised later for several regions of the world (Latin America, western Europe, eastern Europe, Far East).

TABLE 1a. - ESTIMATES OF RATED PULP AND PAPER CAPACITIES

	World totals
	1960	1964	1965	1966	1967
	Million metric tons
Total paper and paper board	82.4	102.9	108.0	110.3	112.2
Newsprint	15.7	18.5	10.5	20.0	20.5
Other paper and paper board	66.7	84.4	88.6	90.3	91.7
Paper pulp	66.5	82.4	86.4	88.8	90.5
Dissolving pulp	4.0	4.9	5.0	5.1	5.3

TABLE 1b. - ESTIMATES OF RATED PULP AND PAPER CAPACITIES

	Coverage of countries with known expansions plans: % of 1964 world capacity
	1965	1966	1967
Total paper and paper board	93	73	31
Newsprint	97	82	82
Other paper and paper board	92	71	23
Paper pulp	06	77	43
Dissolving pulp	95	95	42

Newsprint capacity in 1960 to 1964 increased at a slower rate than other paper and paperboard (Table 2 and Figure 2) but, owing to the slower growth of demand for newsprint, an excess capacity has come into existence. Growth in newsprint capacity in 1964 to 1965 is likely to exceed growth rate in 1960 to 1964, but a somewhat slower increase seems to take place from 1965 to 1966. As in 1960 to 1964, an excess capacity for newsprint was developed and it is likely that an excess capacity will continue or even increase from 1964 to 1965. A reduction of excess capacity seems possible in 1965 to 1966. The data for 1966 to 1967 is not comprehensive enough to draw firm conclusions; preliminary indications are that no drastic changes in excess capacity are likely during that period.

TABLE 2. - INCREASE OF WORLD PULP AND PAPER CAPACITY, PERCENT PER ANNUM

	1960 to 1964	1964 to 1965	1965 to 1966	1966 to 1967
Total paper-board	5.72	4.97	2.12	1.71
Newsprint	4.17	5.26	2.83	2.24
Other paper and paper-board	6.07	4.90	1.97	1.60
Paper pulp	5.89	4.85	2.84	1.82
Dissolving pulp	6.10	2.31	1.68	3.13

NOTE: See Table 1 for coverage of countries with known expansion plans: % of the 1964 world capacity.

Estimates for paper pulp capacity in the period 1960 to 1966 seem to indicate a slightly more rapid growth than that for paper and paperboard.

Capacity for dissolving pulp increases at a slower rate than paper pulp; indications for contrary development in 1966 to 1967 may be due to incomplete data.

Tables 3 and 4 (see also Annexes 2 to 6 and Figure 3) show the capacity development from 1960 to 1967 by regions. While in absolute terms North America and western Europe have the largest expansions of capacity (60 to 60 percent of the world totals in 1960 to 1965) the highest growth rates have taken place or are anticipated in Africa, the Near East, the U.S.S.R. ² and the Far East.

² Actual production of pulp, paper sad paperboard in the U.S.S.R. in 1963 lagged behind the plan; indications are that the revised targets for 1966 are 3.67 million tons of chemical pulp, 3.48 million tons of paper and 1.53 million tons of paperboard. The new perspective plan gives for the year 1970 planned outputs of 11.7, 6.6 and 5.6 million tons respectively.

TABLE 3. - INCREASE OF PULP AND PAPER CAPACITY BY REGIONS

	Paper and paperboard			Paper pulp
	1960 to 1964	1964 to 1965	1965 to 1966	1960 to 1964	1964 to 1965	1965 to 1966
	Thousand metric tons
North America	4 947	1 245	881	5 906	1 074	1 251
Latin America	874	213	26	595	349	(-)
Western Europe	6 079	1 284	927	4361	874	806
Eastern Europe	938	570	164	593	328	110
U.S.S.R.	3 618	905	(-)	3 528	882	(-)
Africa	243	12	92	344	56	60
Near East	61	27	16	41	15	10
Far East	3 187	686	138	1 165	299	178
Mainland China	(240)	(100)	(-)	(100)	(100)	(-)
Oceania	333	69	48	226	18	35
WORLD TOTAL	20 520	5 119	2 292	16 859	3 995	2 450

NOTE: See Annex 1 for coverage of countries with known expansion plans.

FIGURE 2. - Increase in world pulp, paper and paperboard capacities, percent per year.

FIGURE 3. - Increase of pulp, paper and paperboard capacity by regions, in millions of metric tons.

TABLE 4. - INCREASE OF CAPACITY BY REGIONS, PERCENT PER ANNUM

NOTE: See Annex 1 for coverage of countries with known expansion plane.

¹. Canada alone. - ² Refers to planned increase: actual increase likely to be slower. - ³ Excluding Japan.

FIGURE 4. - World totals of pulp, paper and paperboard: estimate of rated capacities in minions of metric tons.

In comparing relative growth of pulp and of paper and paperboard capacities it is of interest to note that while increase of paper and paperboard capacity in western Europe in 1960 to 1964 exceeded that in North America by 1.1 million tons, paper pulp growth in North America exceeded that in western Europe by 1.5 million tons. A nearly similar trend is foreseen for 1964 to 1966. This general trend has already been reflected in the patterns of trade flows of pulp and paper.

In Africa, the Near East and Latin America, the pulp industry has grown at a higher rate than the paper industry in 1960 to 1964, while the contrary development occurred in the Far East. Known expansion plans do not give a clear picture of the future developments in these regions but indications are that the same trend is likely to prevail at least in the Far East and the Near East. With regard to the Far East, it is of some interest to note that from 1960 to 1964 paper and paperboard capacity increased by 3.2 million tons while the paper pulp capacity increased only by 1.2 million tons. Owing to the shortage of economically available fibrous raw materials in certain countries in the region, notably Japan and India, this trend is expected to continue. Consequently, imports of paper pulp to the Far East are likely to increase considerably.

TABLE 5. - WORLD PULP, PAPER AND PAPERBOARD CAPACITIES BY ABOUT 1965: A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE 1959, 1962, 1963 AND 1964 FAO SURVEYS

Survey	Total paper and paper-board	Newsprint	Other paper and paper-board	Paper pulp	Dissolving pulp
	Million metric tons
1959	93.8	18.3	75.5	75.2	...
1962	106.2	20.1	85.0	83.0	5.1
1963	108.8	20.5	88.3	87.4	5.1
1964	108.0	19.5	88.6	86.4	5.1

A comparison of the present survey with similar surveys made in 1959, 1962 and 1963 with dates for 1965 is presented in Table 5 and Figure 4. The actual 1964 capacities are higher than the end year figures of the 1959 survey, even if actual developments are lagging behind plans in the U.S.S.R., Mainland China and the Near East. By 1959 capacity figures were not available up to 1965 in many countries, such as the United States, Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom. Moreover, several countries of eastern Europe with planned economies later revised their plans upward. Furthermore, the industries in several important countries elsewhere (Sweden, Finland, Italy, etc.) have carried out projects not foreseen in 1959.

The 1962 survey seems to have given reasonably accurate indications of the 1965 capacity, in particular if it is taken into account that capacity development to 1965 in some countries was not known.

The 1963 survey gives somewhat higher overall figures for 1965 than the present survey, which is partly explained by the fact that the present survey extends only to 1964 in the Federal Republic of Germany, while in 1963 estimates for these countries were made until 1965. Moreover, it is known that a number of projects for production of newsprint and chemical market pulp have been delayed in view of excess capacities, existing or foreseen for the immediate future.

The experience gained from the above four surveys demonstrates that on the world scale pulp and paper capacity surveys are sound up to three years ahead. Even if, for certain individual countries, estimates for the third year ahead are not very accurate, differences between plans and actual developments are taking place in both plus and minus directions, and errors in the totals are not very significant. It has been impossible to obtain comprehensive data on expansion plans beyond three years ahead. Moreover, economic expectations can change considerably during the first two years of a four-year period, and consequently investment decisions and expansion plans concerning new capacities coming into production during the fourth year are frequently modified substantially.

Annex 1 - Countries listed by year of latest available capacity estimate

1964	1965	1966	1967
WESTERN EUROPE	LATIN AMERICA	NORTH AMERICA	NORTH AMERICA	AFRICA (continued)
Germany, Fed. Rep.	Argentina	United States	Canada	Ghana
FAR EST	Brazil	LATIN AMERICA	LATIN AMERICA	Kenya
Korea North	Colombia	Ecuador	Bolivia	Libya
CHINA (MAINLAND)	Cuba	Guatemala	Chile	Morocco
NEAR EAST	El Salvador	WESTERN EUROPE	Costa Rica	Nigeria
	Panama	United Kingdom	Dominican Republic	Rhodesia
	Venezuela	Greece	Mexico	South Africa
	WESTERN EUROPE	EASTERN EUROPE	Paraguay	Sudan
	Denmark	Yugoslavia	Peru	Swaziland
	Portugal	FAR EAST	Puerto Rico	Tunisia
	Switzerland	Ceylon	Uruguay	United Arab Republic
	Belgium	Indonesia	WESTERN EUROPE
	Ireland	OCEANIA	Austria	NEAR EAST
	EASTERN EUROPE	New Zealand	Finland	Iran
	Albania		Norway	Iraq
	Bulgaria		Sweden	Jordan
	Eastern Germany		France	Lebanon
	NEAR EAST		Italy	Turkey
	Israel		Netherlands
	U.S.S.R.		Spain	FAR EAST
	FAR EAST		EASTERN EUROPE
	Cambodia		Czechoslovakia	Burma
	China (Taiwan)		Hungary	India
	Japan		Poland	Korea, Rep. of
			Romania	Malaysia
			AFRICA	Mongolia
			Algeria	Nepal
			Angola	Pakistan
			Congo (Leopoldville)	Philippines
			Ethiopia	Thailand
				Viet-Nam Rep of
				OCEANIA
				Australia
TOTAL 3	TOTAL 20	TOTAL 9	TOTAL 53

Annex 2 - Rated capacity for 1960

Annex 3 - Rated capacity for 1964

Annex 4 - Rated capacity for 1965

Annex 5 - Rated capacity for 1966

Annex 6 - Rated capacity for 1967

OXFORD SYSTEM OF DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION FOR FORESTRY Amendment No. 4, as authorized by the Joint FAO, Committee on Bibliography: Under 1, add, 10 GENERAL 101 Site studies and site surveys in the broadest sense. [For particular aspects, see the appropriate subdivisions of the system, e.g., for soil surveys see 114.7.] At 228.9, add, e.g., border trees and shrubs as a protective surround. At 232.411, read, Sources of stock: plant acquisition and trade. Kind of stock. At 232.411,1 read, Sources of stock: plant acquisition and trade (including certification of planting stock and legislation for this purpose). At 249, add, e.g., control of undesirable undergrowth (including shrubs and coppice)