CHAPTER II
STAGE TWO: DETAILED ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE INFORMATION

During the second stage, the Multidisciplinary Working Groups (MWGs) and those in charge of the FSIEWS should analyse thoroughly the available information in all food security areas, as well as the collection, processing and information dissemination mechanisms.

1. INFORMATION ON AVAILABILITY OF FOOD

The formula for the availability of staple food products defined in the first stage is: Availability = production of staple products + imports-exports + available stocks - losses and uses other than for food.

Since there is usually fairly reliable information at national level and for a given period on the availability of these products, it can be compared with people's requirements over the same period. At provincial, departmental or local levels, availability can be assessed with margins of error that vary according to the countries and zones studied. Any analysis of availability should take into account imported food aid. Of course the staple products classed as "available" may vary from one region to another, and from one population group to another (according to ethnic group, main sector of activity, age group, etc.). The staple products will be the ones identified earlier in the analysis of the dietary minimum (Part Two, Chapter I, Section 1).

The MWG monitoring agricultural production (APM) analyses this information jointly with those in charge of the FSIEWS. This work will mainly involve the agricultural statistics services, but in collecting the necessary data on losses they will have to work with the plant protection and animal health services. As they must also collect data on imports (including food aid) and exports, the MWG/APM should always collaborate with the MWG monitoring marketing (in the framework of the MIS) for the analysis of available information on foreign trade (import/export). In some countries, import and export data are the exclusive province of customs, but even in this case, it is useful if the data-collection is carried out jointly (MWG/APM and MWG /MIS).

2. INFORMATION ON STABILITY OF SUPPLIES

The stability of supplies classed as belonging to the "dietary minimum" must be analysed over time (food is supplied daily) and spatially (an over-supplied region does not necessarily compensate for an under-supplied one). The analysis of the stability of supplies therefore includes information on prices and quantities in the markets, the evolving stock situation, and the functioning of the transport system etc., that is, knowledge of the mechanisms through which consumers access "available supplies" everywhere and at all times. The overall import (and export) figures refer to the availability of products, but the date of entry (or exit) of products into the country can give an indication of the stability of supplies.

The MWG monitoring the marketing of staple products is therefore responsible for finding and analysing the available data on the stability of basic food supplies.

The adoption of a MIS in the FSIEWS therefore involves all aspects of marketing staple food products; it also covers transport, storage, and the processing of these products throughout the production/commodity chain, from their production (or importation) to the end consumer. It is mainly for this reason that the analysis of commodity chains, included in the basic study of the FSIEWS (Part Two, Stage One, Section 4), must be carried out with great care.

3. INFORMATION ON CONSTRAINTS REGARDING ACCESS FOR ALL TO SUPPLIES

Analysis of access for all (to an adequate quantity and quality of supplies) demands some knowledge of the nutritional status of people and the factors that can modify it: household incomes relative to the price of foodstuffs (financial access), demographic problems, and also physical access to supplies (distance from markets, ability to access them, etc.).

Many people working in the field have also suggested that social access should be included with physical and financial access, in which case unemployment, state of health, supply of drinking water etc. would be added to the other factors.

Monitoring access therefore consists, above all, of the socio-economic monitoring of vulnerable groups.

The members of the MWG that monitors vulnerable groups (MWG/MVG), and who are in charge of analysing the available data in this area, should therefore adopt a "social" approach (awareness of the problems of poverty, the role of women, etc.) combined, however, with a good economic approach, particularly important in monitoring poverty.

4. INFORMATION ON THE BIOLOGICAL UTILIZATION OF STAPLE FOODS

Monitoring data on the biological utilization of foods is generally data on monitoring the nutritional status of populations.

The nutritional monitoring MWG (MWG/FNSS) analysing the available data in this area should therefore be composed of members with expertise in health and nutrition.

Often the MWG/MVG and the MWG/FNSS are combined into one MWG so that they can jointly analyse the socio-economic data linked to access, and the nutrition and health data linked to the biological utilization of foods.

5. OTHER INFORMATION

5.1 Food Aid

Generally speaking the information from monitoring food aid deals with the three principal stages in the commodity chains of the products concerned: supplying commodities (supplying merchandise), supply management and distribution to beneficiaries.

5.1.1 Information on the origin of food aid

In addition to the origin, this aspect also takes into account the quantity, quality, price, packaging and status of each product. The following information is usually available from customs and donor services and should be classified according to source:

• imports from the international market are the largest category and they often come from countries providing food aid;



• imports from neighbouring countries or triangular purchases (involving the donor country, the recipient country and the country where purchased) are among the most interesting in that local market distortions can be contained and products can be adapted to local consumer preferences. This approach has been developed with success in the Sahel for supplying millet and sorghum;



• local purchases, financed by the government or donors, can be looked at from the marketing point of view as inter-regional transfers from surplus zones to deficit zones.

5.1.2 Information on managing food-aid stocks

A distinction must be made between public and private (belonging to international donors or food-aid administrators such as WFP) stocks of foodstuffs, and what may be considered price stabilizing stocks (virtually impossible today if markets are open and competitive). There are also "security" stocks such as the National Food Security Stock (NFSS) in arid countries, controlled by the state (sometimes by donors) and comprising specific reserves for emergency use only.

Food-aid products are often managed by a government body that also oversees the National Food Security Stocks; their management involves having information on markets, the movement of foodstuffs, the condition and movements of stocks, etc.

The World Food Programme (WFP), which also administers large food stocks, monitors a number of variables to ensure good stock control (import terms, logistic parameters for distribution within the country, number of beneficiaries, volume of stocks, number of rations available, etc.).

5.1.3 Information regarding the distribution of food aid and assistance

Food-aid management involves ensuring that foodstuffs are conveyed via free distribution or sale to target groups. To this end information on the following aspects has to be collected and processed:

• targeted groups (groups in a food-insecure situation);



• type of assistance proposed (free distribution, subsidized sale, food-for-work);



• origin of food supplies;



• the practicalities of food-aid operations, including means of transport and distribution, time scales, stock handling, etc.;



• responsibilities at the different stages of distribution.

This information should be contained in a protocol agreement drawn up between the government and the donor(s) of food aid.

5.2 Population Movements

When large numbers of people (and large distances) are involved population shifts are often a very good indication of a difficult economic and social situation and even of food insecurity or vulnerability. But such shifts are a difficult phenomenon to pin down, especially when information is needed quickly on the situation and nature of these movements:

• the national census gives fairly complete information and from this point of view is the best instrument since it covers all households and all individuals. Major migratory flows can be reconstructed by comparing current places of residence with place of birth or past places of residence (for example, one, two and/or five years ago). But, at best, this will give information on the recent past. Questions can certainly be included to measure seasonal or short-term migrations, but this information is soon out of date. Given the high cost in terms of money, time and manpower, this type of data collection is not frequently used;



• sample surveys, which are less expensive and not as cumbersome, give a more immediate view of the migratory situation. Even so, the preparation, execution and utilization of a national survey on migration still take several months. On the other hand, when dealing with a limited area, it is a more manageable instrument for measuring and explaining migration to, or from, a particular area. It is not, however, suitable for identifying sudden migratory movements (unless it is repeated at regular intervals, which is expensive and therefore rarely done);²⁵



• in order to keep track of population movements that may be indicative of underlying local problems, observations must therefore be made on a day-to-day basis in the field by the people or institutions that are best placed to do so by virtue of their work (administrative authorities, health centres, schools, religious communities, etc.). If one does not attempt to measure migration flows but empirically assesses their existence, information gathering is simple and inexpensive. Getting organized to keep track of such phenomena and centralize the information at a level where it can be interpreted prior to making decisions, does, however, present some not insignificant difficulties.

6. COMPUTER SYSTEMS AND THE FLOW OF INFORMATION

The analysis of institutions that provide information on food security, and the channels through which the data flows, is carried out in stages in the specific framework of each MWG. It is one of the first tasks of the MWGs. A participatory approach must be adopted in carrying out this task, as indeed applies to the basic setting up of the FSIEWS, and the results circulated systematically among many of the actors involved in food security in order to obtain their comments before finalizing them. The available information, the frequency, format, distribution method, and the person in charge of each stage, etc, must be detailed for each food security area (and therefore each MWG).

The smooth flow of information through the collection, analysis and utilization services is indispensable over time (as up-to-date as possible) and space. It depends on:

• the cooperation of the providers (some services may be unwilling to part with their data, hoping to profit from them, or fearing criticism);



• whether providers and recipients circulate information in the same format (e.g. computer file);



• whether means of communication such as fax, telephone, radio, that facilitate communication are available;



• whether the frequency with which information is disseminated is suited to that particular kind of information.

It is important to motivate the providers allowing them to benefit from the technical expertise of the FSIEWS. Feedback from the FSIEWS to the providers can take the form of additional information, favourable comments on the information supplied, and/or on the providers themselves. The extension services that provide data on crop status may be interested in receiving information on the marketing of the products that concern them and will get satisfaction out of seeing their work published and analysed in the monthly bulletin, while their managers will get positive feedback at the meetings of the PFSCs²⁶ or MWGs²⁷. On the other hand, at all levels, from the collection to the final publication of the data, all those involved must feel that they are part of a network that values their information and allows them to participate in a global analysis of food security.

Of course, these analyses, while indispensable at the start of the work of the FSIEWS, are not definitive and their results will have to be reviewed periodically as the structures, media, and those in charge, etc. change and evolve.

Illustrating the information channels in diagrammatic form is useful both for ease of understanding and for regular updating. Flowcharts are an important element of the participatory analytical process.

The analysis of the existing information systems can be summarized in a similar way to the table on the next page (analysis of information provider services).

At this stage, the question of how to set up a simple computer system arises and whether a network of central computers perhaps even linked to provincial delegations should be considered. Decisions regarding the need for modems, or other means of sending information (fax, radio, diskettes, satellite, etc.) also need to be discussed.

Example analysis of information provider services (Chad 98)

Structures	Available Data	Frequency of publication	In what form will data be sent to the FSIEWS	Data Processing			Existing databases	Data processing constraints
				Computer power	Software	In charge of data handling
DSA	MIS cereals/livestock forecasts and agricultural production	Every crop season	Report, diskette in Dbase	486	Dbase 4/ SPSS for output tables	Technician	Yes in Dbase	Inexperienced in using SPSS and ACCESS
CNNTA	Nutrition (survey) Vulnerable groups		Report	Pentium (not used)	Need Office 97	Nobody	No	Inexperienced in using computers
DERA	MIS livestock and pastures	Monthly	Report	-	EXCEL	Technician	No	Lacking computers and software
DPVC	Data on desert locust and other pests including seed-eating birds	Every 10 days	Report	486	Excel and Word for the reports	Technician	Yes	No recycling of data by data-manager
ONC	Cereal and stock prices	Monthly	Monthly report on cereal prices	IBM 386	EXCEL	Service chief	No databases	Computer broken Need training
ONDR
SODELAC	Production data by crop, yield, crop pests, rainfall.	Reports monthly, end of crop year, quarterly, annually	Report	Only one 486 computer for everyone	Word for the reports	Service chief	No	Lacking equipment and training
DREM	Rainfall	Every 10 days	Report, bulletin	486	Pluie, Climbase	Database manager	Yes, in climbase, pluie	Problems with the power supply
DEPA	Statistics not very reliable	No publications	-	No computer	-	-	-	-
SIM	Cereal prices	Weekly, monthly, annually	Report, bulletin	486	Paradox,	Input clerk	Databases in paradox	Lack of experience in information processing
DSEED								2
DSIS	Diarrhoea, goitre, tuberculosis, vitamin deficiencies, dysentery	Twice yearly, but provided on request	Diskette, reports	Pentium 166 Mhz	ACCESS	Input clerk	One database in ACCESS	Lack of training for the data-manager
FEWS	Rainfall Cereal prices, hydrology NDVI	Monthly	Diskette, report	Pentium 166 MHz	Yes, but not Access	Head of project	ACCESS but not familiar with it
SAP	Early warning data	Monthly	Report	486	Yes	Input clerk	Dbase4	Lacking computer equipment and skills
SECADEV OXFAM	Area, production, price of produce, utilization of agricultural goods and gum arabic	Monthly or at the request of the FSIEWS, depending on fund	Diskettes, Periodic reports	Pentium 166 MHz	ACCESS, Publisher	Mixed farming and fishery resources manage	Lacking resources and technicians	Databases are in ACCESS Need training in Office 97
CCI/DPASA	Food aid		Reports	486	WP, Lotus	Service chief	No databases
Word Vision	Nutritional surveys	Periodic reports	Reports	486	Excel	Nutrition manager	No databases	Difficulties creating a database
ACCRA	Stocks of cereal products, cereal prices	Monthly (no longer published due to lack of funds)	Reports	486	EXCEL	Representative	No databases	Funding No experience with databases

²⁵ The simple addition of questions on migration to a survey set up for a different purpose, in the hope of economizing, will not work: the survey has to be conceived specifically to study migration, which means covering all the spatial units potentially concerned.

²⁶ See Part Two, Chapter IV, FSIEWS Set-up.

²⁷ Part Two, Chapter I, Section Five - Basic Study.