FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - November 1997:

ETHIOPIA

CURRENT SITUATION

Abundant rains in the first dekad of October in southern and south-eastern parts of the country, affected by insufficient precipitation in previous months, improved the outlook for the 1997 "Meher" crops. By contrast, precipitation decreased in the main growing western areas which had received good rains during the season. Overall, this year’s cereal harvest is forecast to be average, although below the bumper crops of the past two years. In several localized areas, however, crops are expected to be poor as the recent rains were too late to avoid yield reductions. Most affected areas are likely to be the vulnerable South and East Tigray and North and South Wello zones, where the Belg crop was reduced, as well as in East and West Hararghe.

Cereal prices have increased steadily since May reflecting substantial cross-border exports and diminishing stocks.

Following the failure of the 1997 "Belg" crop, the Government estimated that some 1.2 million affected persons require 90 000 tons of emergency food assistance until the next harvest. Despite the overall satisfactory crop prospects, the food supply situation of a large section of the population in these areas is likely to remain tight with the anticipated reduced harvest. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is currently in the country to appraise the 1997 main season crops and to estimate the 1998 import requirements including food aid.