FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - November 1997:

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SENEGAL


Area: 192 000 sq.km
Climate: Semi-arid in north, tropical wet-dry in south, with rains in June-October
Population: 8.77 million (1996 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 600 (1995)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country; coastal sahelian country
Logistics: Port capacity adequate; gateway to Mali.
Major foodcrops: Millet and sorghum, rice, maize, wheat
Marketing year: November/October; Lean season: August-September
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 61 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

Following dry spell in July/early August which affected rainfed crops, harvest prospects are unfavourable despite above normal rains in late August and September which improved growing conditions. Following an early start of the rainy season in May and June, the weather became almost completely dry during the second dekad of July over the entire country. Mostly dry conditions prevailed in the north and the centre-north up to mid-August, severely stressing recently planted crops. Sowings failed on large areas. Precipitation resumed in mid-August and became widespread and well above normal in late August. It generally remained above normal in September, notably in early and late September and in the southern half of the country. In the north and the centre-north, crops which had not failed could recover but yield potential has been reduced and crops could not reach full maturity before the end of the rainy season. In the centre and the south, maize, millet and sorghum have generally reached maturity, rice is heading/maturing. Pastures have regenerated following improved rains of September, however they remained scarse in several areas. Water reserves have been generally filled.

Grasshopper infestations are reported in Louga and Thiès regions and in Foundioungué department. Insect and grain eating birds attacks are also reported locally. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission visited Senegal from 13 to 22 October. Composed of experts or consultants from FAO/GIEWS and the DIAPER Programme of CILSS, this Mission worked closely with the national services involved in the monitoring of rainy season (meteorology, hydrology, plant protection, agricultural statistics) as well as the «Cellule Agro-Sylvo Pastorale pour la Sécurité Alimentaire » (CASPAR), the early warning system (Suivi des zones et groupes à risques alimentaires - ZAR) and the SIM (price information system). It estimated, on the basis of the annual production survey, 1997 aggregate production of cereals at 811 000 tons (including prospects for off-season crops), which is well below 1996 output and below average. Production of maize decreased more than that of millet and sorghum while production of rice increased slightly from the 1996 level.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1996/97 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)


Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production

-

182

811

993

Normal Imports

175

350

85

610

of which: Structural food aid

5

4

7

16

1996/97 Domestic Availability

-

172

869

1 041

1996 Production (rice in paddy terms)

-

174

844

1 018

1996 Production (rice in milled terms)

-

122

844

966

Possible stock drawdown

-

50

25

75

1996/97 Utilization

200

522

969

1 691

Food Use

197

496

834

1 527

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

(10)

(10)

Non-food use

3

26

135

164

Exports or Re-exports

-

-

-

-

Possible stock build up

-

-

-

-

1996/97 Import Requirement

200

350

100

650

Anticipated commercial imports

195

340

93

628

Food aid needs

5

10

7

22

Current Aid Position





Food aid pledges

2

7

1

10

of which: Delivered

2

3

1

6

Donor-financed local purchases

-

-

3

3

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

23

57

95

175

Indexes





1996 production as % of normal:




102

1996/97 import requirement as % of normal:




107

1996/97 food aid requirement as % of normal:




138


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