FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - November 1997:

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SUDAN


Area: 2.4 million sq.km
Climate: From north to south, arid, semi-arid and tropical wet-dry. Rainy season May-October
Population: 27.15 million (1996 estimate); GNP per caput: n.a.
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country; cereal production mainly in eastern and central areas.
Logistics: Roads, railway and river transport inadequate
Major foodcrops: Sorghum, millet, wheat, roots and tubers, oils
Marketing year: November/October; Lean season: September-October
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 51 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

Normal rains in most growing areas in the first dekad of October, which followed below-normal precipitation in some central parts in September, improved growing conditions for the 1997 coarse grains. Preliminary estimates indicate an area planted of some 12 million hectares, close to the good level of last year; a decrease in the area planted of sorghum partially compensating larger plantings of millet. Desert locusts have been reported in various areas but control measures have been taken. Overall, prospects for the harvest from late November are favourable. Crops are reported to be in good condition in the areas of Darfur and Kordofan where the harvest was reduced in the past two years.However in southern parts, where the first season cereal crops harvested in September was reduced due to insufficient and erratic precipitation, rains in the first dekad of October were below average and growing conditions continue to be unfavourable for the second crop season.

Prices of cereals remain stable with decreases in some areas where the harvest is about to start. The food supply situation in the states of Darfur and Kordofan, affected by a previous poor harvest, is expected to improve with the new harvest. However, the food situation is anticipated to deteriorate in the war-affected southern parts, where the recently harvested main season cereal crops were substantially reduced and prospects for the second crop season are poor. Food aid is required in these areas. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission will visit the country in mid-November to appraise the 1997 coarse grain crops and estimate import requirements for 1998, including food aid.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1996/97 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)


Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production (rice in paddy terms)

460

1

3 189

3 650

Normal Imports

450

10

130

590

of which: Structural food aid

250

-

-

250

1996/97 Domestic Availability

650

2

4 689

5 341

1996 Production (rice in paddy terms)

650

1

4 689

5 340

1996 Production (rice in milled terms)

650

1

4 689

5 340

Possible stock drawdown

-

1

-

1

1996/97 Utilization

1 025

12

4 689

5 726

Food Use

940

11

3 037

3 988

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

(42)

(42)

Non-food use

70

1

673

744

Exports or Re-exports

-

-

593

593

Possible stock build up

15

-

386

401

1996/97 Import Requirement

375

10

-

385

Anticipated commercial imports

301

10

-

311

Food aid needs

74

-

-

74

Current Aid Position





Food aid pledges

23

-

54

77

of which: Delivered

23

-

53

76

Donor-financed local purchases

-

-

42

42

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

35

-

112

147

Indexes





1996 production as % of normal:




146

1996/97 import requirement as % of normal:




65

1996/97 food aid requirement as % of normal:




30


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