FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - November 1997:

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UGANDA


Area: 200 000 sq.km
Climate: North-east is semi-arid, rest of the country is tropical wet-dry; main rainy period is March-October
Population: 20.4 million (1997 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 240 (1995)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics: Ports: Mombasa (Kenya) and Dar es Salaam (Tanzania); roads and railways inadequate
Major foodcrops: Roots, tubers, plantains, pulses, maize, millet, sorghum
Marketing year: January/December; Lean season: April-May
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 35 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

Abundant rains in the first dekad of October, following a prolonged delay in the start of the 1997/98 rainy season, improved soil moisture for planting operations and provided relief to early planted crops. However, the rains are likely to have been too late to avoid reductions in plantings and in yields of the early planted maize and bean crops. Cumulative precipitation by 10 October remains well below average throughout the country but, particularly, in eastern province.

The output of the 1997 second season crops, harvested form August, was reduced by insufficient rains. In pastoral areas, dry weather during the last rainy season has resulted in poor condition of pastures and animals. Production of the first season crops was also negatively affected by unfavourable weather conditions in several areas and persistent civil conflict in the northern districts of Gulu and Kitgum.

Reflecting last season’s reduced crop the food supply situation is tight, particularly in vulnerable eastern and north-eastern areas. Food prices, which normally decline after the harvest, increased during September and were above their level of a year ago. Increasing insecurity in the past months in the western districts of Bundibugyo and Kasese has resulted in substantial population displacement and is disrupting agricultural activities .



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1997 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)


Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production (rice in paddy terms)

9

66

1 695

1 770

Normal Imports

18

-

10

28

of which: Structural food aid

15

-

10

25

1997 Domestic Availability

9

51

1 557

1 617

1996 Production (rice in paddy terms)

9

77

1 557

1 643

1996 Production (rice in milled terms)

9

51

1 557

1 617

Possible stock drawdown

-

-

-

-

1997 Utilization

35

57

1 567

1 659

Food Use

29

57

1 062

1 148

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

(9)

(9)

Non-food use

1

-

334

335

Exports or Re-exports

-

-

166

166

Possible stock build up

5

-

5

10

1997 Import Requirement

26

6

10

42

Anticipated commercial imports

6

6

-

12

Food aid needs

20

-

10

30

Current Aid Position





Food aid pledges

4

5

59

68

of which: Delivered

4

5

59

68

Donor-financed purchases

-

-

18

18

of which: for local purchases

-

-

9

9

for export



9

9

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

1

3

52

56

Indexes





1996 production as % of normal:




93

1997 import requirement as % of normal:




150

1997 food aid requirement as % of normal:




120


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