Planting of main season crops has started in southern Africa; only irrigated winter wheat is currently in the ground in the sub-region. Crops in several countries in eastern Africa are maturing or being harvested, while harvesting of main season crops is due to commence in November in Ethiopia and Sudan. Harvesting is underway in the coastal countries of western Africa, while the rainy season is coming to a close in Sahelian countries.

In eastern Africa, preliminary forecasts point to a decline in the 1997 aggregate cereal production from the good level of 1996. In Tanzania, following drought during the "short rains" season earlier in the year and late and erratic rains during the "long rains" season, the 1997 aggregate cereal output is estimated one-third lower than last year at 3 million tons. In Uganda, the first and the recently harvested second season cereal crops were affected by erratic rains and the aggregate output is at estimated below last year’s normal crop. The outlook for the 1998 first season crops, to be harvested from January, is uncertain following late and insufficient rains which are likely to have resulted in reductions in plantings and yields. In Rwanda and Burundi, the 1997 cereal production increased from the previous year but remained below the pre-crisis average levels. Prospects for the 1998 first season crops have also been negatively affected by a delay in the start of the rainy season. In Somalia, the 1997 main season cereal output remained at the reduced level of 1996 due to a low level of plantings and dry spells during the growing season. In Kenya, the outlook for the main maize crop, currently being harvested, is satisfactory reflecting generally favourable weather; output is forecast to increase substantially from the reduced level of 1996. In Ethiopia, the outlook for the main cereal harvest about to start has deteriorated following dry weather in some areas in the past months; production is anticipated to decline from the bumper crop of last year. In Eritrea, dry spells in parts have resulted in a deterioration of prospects for this year’s coarse grain crop, provisionally forecast to remain at the reduced levels of 1996. In Sudan, below-average precipitation in September and erratic rains in the first dekad of October have stressed developing coarse grain crops. More rains are needed to avoid yield reductions.

As a result of the anticipated decline in the sub-region’s aggregate 1997 cereal production, imports in 1997/98 are expected to increase substantially. In the three countries that have entered their new marketing year, Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania, import requirements in 1997/98 are estimated at 2 million tons. While most of the cereal deficit is expected to be covered by commercial imports, food aid requirements amount to 0.2 million tons. Against these requirements pledges until the end of October amounted to 59 000 tons.

In southern Africa, aggregate cereal output for 1997, estimated at 22.1 million tons, is 16 percent above average but 10 percent lower than last year’s bumper crop of 24.4 million tons. In Angola, as a result of below-normal rainfall, cereal production declined by 15 percent to 431 000 tons. Output is expected to be lower than last year’s in Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe due to unfavourable weather. Food supply has become particularly tight in some districts in Malawi due to drought-reduced harvests. In Mozambique, in contrast, output is estimated to be 11 percent higher, at 1.5 million tons, due to increased plantings and favourable weather. A record coarse grains crop is estimated for Namibia, following larger plantings and abundant rainfall. In Madagascar, cereal output is about the same as in 1996. Despite locust damage to crops in the southern parts, the production shortfall in the affected areas has been offset by good harvests in other parts where over 90 percent of national cereal output is produced.

The overall food supply situation is expected to be generally stable during the 1997/98 marketing year. Countries with relatively large carryover stocks from last year’s harvest and have a maize surplus, such as South Africa and Zimbabwe, are expected to supply other countries in the sub-region. However, given a general concern about a possible drought during the upcoming season due to El Niño, export and import plans are likely to be revised as farmers in several countries may decide to retain a larger proportion of their grain production this year. A larger quantity of maize imports may, therefore, need to be sourced from outside the sub-region.

In western Africa, harvest prospects improved in the western Sahel during the last part of the season, while they are mixed in the centre and the east. In the western part, abundant and widespread rains in September significantly compensated for drier conditions in July and August. After an early start of the rainy season in May/June, precipitation dropped to well below normal from mid-July to mid-August over most of Senegal, The Gambia and Mauritania, severely affecting early planted crops and rainfed crops. Therefore, below-average harvests are anticipated in Senegal and The Gambia. Abundant precipitation in late August/early September replenished soil moisture in these countries and filled dams in Mauritania, improving prospects for recession or irrigated crops. Abundant rains in September and October also benefited crops in Guinea Bissau, where an above-average harvest is anticipated. In the central part of the Sahel, harvest prospects are mostly favourable in Mali and western Burkina Faso but less favourable in the other regions of Burkina Faso. In the eastern part of the Sahel, prospects are mixed in Niger with pockets of poor anticipated harvests. In Chad, generally widespread and regular rains favoured crop production; an above-average harvest is anticipated but African Migratory Locusts pose a threat in the north-west. In the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, growing conditions have been generally favourable and production is expected to be average to above-average.

Following the FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Missions which recently visited the Sahelian countries to estimate 1997 cereal production, the cereal balance sheets for the 1997/98 marketing year will be prepared with indications of commercial imports and food aid needs for the next 12 months. Imports are likely to increase in Burkina Faso, The Gambia and Senegal following anticipated below-average harvests. Despite a very poor maize harvest in Cape Verde, the food supply situation is not anticipated to be difficult as the country imports the bulk of its cereal consumption requirement. The overall food supply situation is expected to remain stable through the 1997/98 marketing year in the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, except in Sierra Leone where serious food difficulties are anticipated and in Liberia where full recovery in production will take some time. 

The cereal import requirement of the sub-region is estimated at 5 million tons. Commercial imports are expected to be 4.3 million tons. The aggregate food aid requirement is estimated at 0.7 million tons of which 0.6 million tons have been pledged. Some 0.5 million tons have been delivered so far.

In central Africa, factional fighting in Brazzaville, Republic of Congo, has led to the displacement of more than half of the 900 000 people living in the capital and has disrupted the food supply system. FAO/GIEWS will participate in an Inter-Agency Needs Assessment Mission planned for December. For the region as a whole, the aggregate cereal import requirement of the five countries which are still in their 1997 marketing year (January/December) is estimated at 0.4 million tons of which 0.3 million tons are anticipated to be covered by commercial imports and 0.1 million tons by food aid. Pledges reported so far to GIEWS amount to 16 000 tons, of which 10 000 tons have been delivered. Cameroon and Congo have already entered a new marketing year and their cereal import requirement is estimated at 0.4 million tons, mostly to be covered by commercial imports.