The main points from Lim (1995a) are summarised below with the intention of assisting and guiding the implementation of carrying capacity studies. This broad framework can be used as a reference document, but the final output and conclusions will depend on the nature of each study area and its values.
GENERAL APPROACHES TO ASSESSING CARRYING CAPACITY
1. Define the carrying capacity that needs to be established for the study area:
Options: |
· tourism carrying capacity |
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· recreation carrying capacity |
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· others |
Consider the above from one or more of the following perspectives:
· physical carrying capacity
· ecological carrying capacity
· social carrying capacity
· economic carrying capacity
Consider factors that affect the overall capacity of an area:
Options: |
· access capacity |
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· commercial capacity |
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· construction capacity |
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· service capacity |
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· transport capacity |
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· others |
2. Consider the type of tourism existing or being planned from the following contexts:
· physical
· social
· cultural
· infrastructure
· economic benefits
· tourism image
· indigenous environment
· others
3. List the objectives of the area:
Options: |
· conservation of natural resources |
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· preservation of areas of unique scientific, historical and cultural value |
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· preservation of heritage |
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· tourism and recreation |
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· employment opportunities |
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· others |
Ecological and social consequences of use should be consistent with area management objectives. If an area has more than one objective, then state the objective of highest priority.
In the Spey Valley example, Getz (1981) assessed the key indicators of impact by reference to the objectives of tourist development boards, and subsequently derived quantifiable and subjective criteria (Table I). This is useful for monitoring the impacts of tourism on an area.
TABLE I. KEY INDICATORS FOR ASSESSING IMPACT IN SPEY VALLEY
OBJECTIVES |
QUANTIFIABLE CRITERIA |
SUBJECTIVE CRITERIA |
Population stabilised (or growth encouraged) |
· out-migration halted |
· types of in-migrants |
Opportunities for employment increased |
· new jobs created in tourism |
· jobs to benefit special needs |
Incomes increased |
· raise personal and household incomes |
· risks of dependency on tourism |
Viability of communities enhanced and efficient use made of resources |
· infrastructure, services and facilities made adequate |
· attitudes toward change |
Welfare and social integration fostered |
· crime, police work and social work problems minimised |
· integration of newcomers (types of newcomers; their expectations and actions; attitudes towards them) |
Cultural wealth strengthened |
· maintenance of traditions |
· degree of commercialisation |
Leisure choice increased |
· facilities provided and used |
· satisfaction with opportunities for leisure; preferences and expectations |
Conservation assisted |
· preservation of unique cultural and natural features |
· attitudes to conservation |
Amenity enhanced |
· avoidance of crowding, noise and loss of privacy |
· visual amenity preferences |
4. Establish criteria that affect capacity:
(a) Physical: |
· area size |
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· accessible space |
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· visual impact |
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· climate |
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· aesthetics |
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· accommodation quality |
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· availability of facilities |
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· transportation |
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· number of people that can be accommodated |
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· others |
(b) Ecological: |
· the need for conservation |
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· fragility of the environment |
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· wildlife resources |
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· topography |
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· vegetative cover |
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· behavioural sensitivity of species |
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· diversity |
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· uniqueness of species |
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· concealment |
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· resilience of ecosystem/species |
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· impact of use on the area |
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· others |
For coral reefs, the following must also be taken into account: | |
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· size and shape of reef: |
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· composition of coral communities: |
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· type of underwater activity: |
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· level of experience of divers/snorkellers: |
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· others: |
(c) Economic: |
· investment |
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· volume of tourists |
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· cost of the holiday |
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· level of economic benefits provided |
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· level of enjoyment suited to the residents |
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· others |
(d) Cultural: |
· volume of tourism with no detrimental effects |
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· cultural attractions |
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· quality of crafts and food |
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· involvement of local communities/residents |
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· others |
(e) Social: |
· visitors' choice |
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· visitors' opinions |
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· visitors' attitude and behaviour |
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· expectations and preferences |
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· perceptual and behavioural response |
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· response to rising use levels |
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· visitors' activities |
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· visitor satisfaction |
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· acceptable level of crowding |
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· involvement of local communities/residents |
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· others |
(f) Availability of resources and infrastructure: |
· cash incentives |
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· public utilities |
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· transport facilities |
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· essential facilities e.g. hospitals |
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· availability of water supply |
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· proper disposal of solid and liquid wastes |
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· others |
(g) Administrative and political factors: |
· level at which management is implemented |
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· legal restraints |
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· policy incentives |
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· others |
For example, Getz (1981), when assessing the capacity of the Spey Valley, formulated responses to such criteria (Table II).
Variations in criteria should also be considered:
· seasonably |
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· developing tourism areas |
- optimise benefits |
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- ensure negative impacts of saturation do not occur |
· developed tourism areas |
- emphasise management rather than planning |
· others |
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5. Establish thresholds or tolerable levels of use that can act as management guidelines: (cf. Getz, 1981; Table II).
Options: |
· physical |
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· economic |
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· ecological |
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· perceptual |
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· social/cultural |
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· political/administrative |
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· others |
Bear in mind that thresholds may be eventually reached, or may change with time.
TABLE II. CRITERIA IN THE MEASUREMENT OF CAPACITY TO ABSORB TOURISM IN SPEY VALLEY
CRITERIA |
PHYSICAL |
ECONOMIC |
ECOLOGICAL |
PERCEPTUAL |
SOCIAL/CULTURAL |
POLITICAL/ADMINISTRATIVE |
SOME COMPONENTS FOR MEASUREMENT |
· Accessibility |
· Capital investment |
· Changes in natural processes |
· Scenery |
· Population stability |
· Plans and programmes |
POSSIBLE THRESHOLDS |
· Physical limits of supply |
· Inadequate funds |
· Uniqueness lost or threatened |
· User dissatisfaction |
· Valued traditions lost |
· Inability to achieve objectives |
PROBLEMS |
· Physical limits can be altered |
· Economy fluctuates |
· Management can alter effects and processes |
· Management can reduce problems |
· Attitudes change, and residents adapt |
· Co-operation between agencies and levels difficult to achieve |
OBSERVATIONS IN SPEY VALLEY |
· Facilities inadequate at peak times |
· High demand for labour and shortage of local skills, but transients fill the needs |
· No evidence of major damage, but... |
· Some visitors alienated by changes, but... |
· Satisfaction generally high |
· Pro-growth sentiment dominates plans and priorities |
6. Assess the carrying capacity of the area:
(a) Physical carrying capacity
(i) Consider in terms of time and space variables, and tourist function rates.
Time: |
· peak capacity |
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· daily capacity |
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· weekly capacity |
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· yearly capacity |
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· seasonal and diurnal |
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· others |
Space: |
· space coefficients |
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· unit measures |
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· density zones |
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· equipment ratios |
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· others |
Tourist function rates: |
· ratios |
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· others |
Threshold capacities: |
· economic viability |
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· water resources |
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· others |
Non-measurable criteria (use comparative analyses): |
· ecological impacts |
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· cultural impacts |
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· psychological effects |
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· others |
(ii) Apply Boullon's (1985) formula.
The total number of allowed daily visits is then obtained:
· Total daily visits = Carrying capacity x Rotation coefficient
The rotation coefficient is thus determined:
(b) Social carrying capacity
(i) Establish conditions requiring judgmental inputs (Shelby & Heberlein, 1984):
· relationship between use levels/management parameters and experience parameters· agreement about the type of recreational experience to be provided
· agreement about the appropriate levels of experience parameters
(ii) Document visitor particulars and activities, as well as their expectations and preferences. Then a theoretical evaluation based on experience and accumulated knowledge can be used for comparative analyses.
Options: |
· frequency of site visits |
· group size | |
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· length of stay |
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· activity patterns |
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· expectations and preferences |
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· others |
(c) Ecological carrying capacity
(i) Consider the level of ecological use the area can support.
(ii) Consider if factors such as the following are at risk:
· soil erosion
· pollution of water resources
· landslides
· loss of species
· others
(iii) Assess the capability of the area to cope with increased water demand and waste disposal.
(d) Recreation carrying capacity (requires an assessment of both environmental and social capacities)
(i) Apply the ROS process to establish the acceptable numbers of visitors suited to each zone:
· visitor surveys
· density guidelines
· others
(ii) Describe observable characteristics and carry out evaluation which involves judgements on acceptability of impacts (Graefe et al, 1984):
Description: |
· management parameters |
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· impact parameters |
Evaluation: |
· measurable |
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· non-measurable |
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· absolute |
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· empirical terms |
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· others |
MANAGEMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION GUIDELINES
1. Consider the stage of the tourism life cycle that the area is in, and manage accordingly:
Options: |
· exploration stage |
· growth/development stage | |
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· mature/consolidation stage |
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· decline stage |
2. Zone the area according to its use and objectives, and develop specific management plans for each zone:
For example: |
· primitive |
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· rural |
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· suburban |
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· urban |
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· others |
3. If in line with management objectives, consider ways to increase the carrying capacity of the area:
Options: |
· establish quotas which set numerical limits on visitors |
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· reduce conflict between competing uses |
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· provide adequate information |
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· increase durability of resources |
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· expand the capacities of utility services |
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· expand the capacities of transport facilities |
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· develop purpose-built tourist resort complexes |
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· invest in careful design of infrastructure |
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· access restriction |
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· activity restriction |
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· time separation e.g. seasonal closure |
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· implement speed limits on boats |
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· ensure amenity features and facilities are available to residents at reasonable costs |
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· encourage local resident participation in tourism |
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· others |
In addition, there can be the option to disperse pressure on an area by creating alternatives or opening up new areas. This also provides economic benefits of additional income and employment elsewhere.
Options: |
· disperse tourist attractions |
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· develop new attractions and tourist facilities |
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· design new viewing tracts, trails, etc. |
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· extend visit season |
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· encourage wet or off-season use |
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· others |
4. Implement an education programme which will help create awareness and educate the public on conservation matters:
Options: |
· exhibits and signs |
· surface or underwater trails/routes | |
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· guidebooks and brochures |
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· public awareness programmes |
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· others |
5. Incorporate all these into a management plan, ensuring that a government mandate is included:
A competent management programme should incorporate both environmental considerations and human needs and desires.
6. Implement appropriate action at the various levels:
Options: |
· local |
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· municipal |
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· district |
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· state |
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· federal |
7. Monitor and evaluate conditions:
This would enable management policies to be amended if necessary.
EXAMPLES OF OVERALL FRAMEWORKS FOR ASSESSING CARRYING CAPACITY
(a) The LAC process (Stankey & McCool, 1984)
· identify area issues and concerns- economic
- social
- environmental
- political constraints· define and describe opportunity classes
- resource
- social
- managerial· select indicators of resource and social conditions (cf. Getz, 1981, Table I)
- economic
- social
- environmental
- political· inventory existing resource and social conditions
- current status of indicators
- standard data base· specify standards for resource and social conditions for each opportunity class
- acceptable limits
- observable limits
- measurable limits· identify alternative opportunity classes allocations
- type of use
- location
- timing· identify management actions for each alternative
- direct
- indirect· evaluate and select a preferred alternative
- costs versus benefits
- consensus building
- management capability· implement actions and monitor conditions
- compare against standards
- adjust management strategies accordingly
In short,
· identify the location, type and level of change considered appropriate and acceptable
· compare existing and desired conditions
· implement the management of conditions, rather than use levels per se
(b) The QUAL process (Chilman et al, 1989):
· management goal: quality recreation- operational definition of "quality"
- obtain consensus of quality· inventory existing conditions
- reconnaissance of areas
- comparison to other areas
- divide management areas into subunits
- measurement of subunit conditions· analysis of alternatives
- locate area of management focus
- implications of changing area conditions
- aspects of uniqueness or fragility· objective: setting and implementation
- select desired set of conditions
- select condition indicators and management strategies
- implement programmes and communicate progress· monitoring and evaluation
- determine if objectives are being achieved
- determine what changes are occurring
- search for ways to improve quality
(c) The VIM process (Graefe et al, 1990):
· identify unacceptable visitor impacts - use indicators
· determine factors affecting incidence and severity of impacts
· select potential strategies for dealing with these unacceptable impacts
· monitor effectiveness of strategies implemented
EXAMPLES OF QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER WHEN DETERMINING CARRYING CAPACITY
Adapted from McIntyre et al (1993).
(a) Physical and ecological factors
· What is the size of the area to be developed?What portion is available for use by tourists?Are there seasonal limitations? (Consider viewing patterns; are they evenly distributed or concentrated?)
· What space modifications could improve the use? (Consider such things as plant buffers to minimise visibility or signage to manage accessibility.)
· What is the potential for ecological damage?
For instance, how fragile is the soil?The plant life?
The animal life?
Other geological features?
What facilities or design policies could prevent damage?
· What are the conservation needs of the marine life?
Other wildlife?The plant life?
The soil and other geological features? (Remember that the carrying capacity will be affected by such factors as diversity and distribution.)
· What are the preservation needs of historic or archaeological features?
What places, or sites, because of fragility, should be off-limits to tourists?Or available only for limited use?
· Who has or should have the responsibility to assure that the infrastructure is appropriately built for the carrying capacity of the tourism resources?
· Will an increase in visitors affect the behaviour of animal life?
How can conflict between competing uses be managed? (Consider restricting human visitation to tourist zones.)
(b) Social factors
· What volume of tourism can comfortably be absorbed into the day-to-day social life of the community? (Consider the willingness of residents to share their community.)Are there variations in tolerance levels during festivals, celebrations, religious occasions, or other special events?Is there a desire to modify/limit tourist behaviour or participation in cultural activities?
If so, how might that be accomplished? (Consider dispersal policies.)
· What traditions could be affected by increased tourist visitation or interaction?
How might this be positive rather than negative?How might contacts be a learning experience rather than a point of conflict?
· How will local residents be made aware and educated about the interrelationships among sustainable tourism, the environment, and the rest of the community?
(c) Economic factors
· Does the community receive satisfactory economic benefit from tourism activity?What is reasonable to expect?Will the economic benefits be sufficient to motivate the community to protect the environment?
· Is the current volume of tourism providing optimal economic benefits?
If not, how can benefits be increased? (Consider adding value to existing services and products.)· Does the tourism industry offer jobs and opportunities for local residents?
Are they reasonably compensated?Are work conditions acceptable?
Is job skill training available?
Are there opportunities for promotions and advancements?
· Are there opportunities for local investments in businesses serving tourists?
Or are profits drained off by outside investors?If so, how can this situation be remedied?
· Are locally produced goods available in quality and quantity sufficient to meet tourist expectations?
(d) Infrastructure factors
· What transportation facilities and services are available?Are tourism sites accessible by existing transportation services?If not, how can they be provided?
· Are utility services including water, power, sewage and solid waste disposal available and adequate for projected use?
If not, how can they be provided?· Are the provisions for health and public safety adequate?
If not, how can they be provided?
EXAMPLES OF POTENTIAL INDICATORS OF IMPACTS
Physical: |
· soil bulk density | |
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· soil drainage | |
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· soil compaction | |
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· soil chemistry | |
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· soil productivity | |
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· amount and depth of litter | |
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· area of barren core | |
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· visible erosion/area of bare ground | |
Biological: |
· soil fauna and microflora | |
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· ground cover density | |
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· percent loss of ground cover | |
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· plant species composition and diversity | |
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· proportion of exotic plant species | |
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· plant height | |
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· plant species vigour | |
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· extent of diseased vegetation | |
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· extent of scarred or mutilated trees | |
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· number of tree seedlings | |
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· exposed tree roots | |
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· abundance of wildlife species | |
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· presence/absence of species | |
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· frequency of wildlife sightings | |
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· wildlife species diversity | |
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· wildlife reproduction success | |
Social: |
· number of visitors: |
in area per day |
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by mode of transportation |
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· number of groups: |
in area per day |
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by mode of transportation |
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· no. of encounters: |
with other groups per day |
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with other individuals per day |
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by activity type |
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by mode of transportation |
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by location of encounter |
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by size of group |
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· visitor perception: |
of impact on environment |
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of crowding |
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· visitor satisfaction | |
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· reports of undesirable visitor behaviour | |
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· amount of litter in areas | |
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· number of visitor complaints |
EXAMPLES OF POTENTIAL INDICATORS OF EXISTING TOURISM CONDITIONS
Adapted from Williams & Gill (1991).
Environmental conditions: |
· built environment size, distribution, capacity |
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· land use pattern and mix |
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· pollution loading levels |
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· noise levels |
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· natural habitat structure |
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· composition and diversity of species |
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· vegetation cover |
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· quality of air, water, soil |
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· health of humans |
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· health of biota |
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· demand for land, water, energy resources |
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· population densities and structure |
Economic conditions: |
· number of full-time jobs; part-time jobs |
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· types and distribution of jobs created |
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· types of jobs displaced |
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· wage and salary levels |
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· amount of local investment |
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· tourism expenditure levels |
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· tax revenue levels |
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· inflation levels |
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· personal/household income levels |
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· cost of living |
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· cost of tourism services |
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· local access to tourism facilities |
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· housing affordability |
Social-cultural conditions: |
· encounters between residents and tourists; tourists groups |
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· encounters by mode of transportation; location |
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· tourist satisfaction levels |
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· resident satisfaction levels |
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· tourist perceptions of crowding |
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· number of: tourist complaints; resident complaints |
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· employee housing availability |
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· access to community services and facilities |
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· perceived quality of community services and facilities |
Figure I: Carrying capacity and sustainable tourism development.
Source: McIntyre et al (1993).
Carrying capacity should be considered at the three levels of policy formulation, detailed studies, and implementation and monitoring (Figure I) (McIntyre et al, 1993).
It must be borne in mind that each case should be viewed separately, as management applications will vary according to the geographical, ecological, political, social, economical and cultural conditions of the particular area.
The carrying capacity concept is not intended to be used singularly, but should complement other management tools such as environmental impact assessments, land-use policies, tourism strategies and development plans.
The key lies in focusing research, not on the question "how much is too much?", but rather on, "how much change is acceptable?". This would entail an assessment of what kinds of resources and social conditions are appropriate and acceptable in different settings. Hence management focus is shifting from efforts to control numbers of visitors, to management strategies that reflect a predetermined set of environmentally and socially desirable conditions (Williams & Gill, 1991).