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FAO FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE TECHNICAL PAPER No. 521
Prospective analysis of
aquaculture development
The Delphi method
by
Nathanael Hishamunda
Fishery Planning Officer,
Fisheries and Aquaculture Economics and Policy Division
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department
Florence Poulain
Consultant,
Fisheries and Aquaculture Economics and Policy Division
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department
and
Neil Ridler,
FAO Visiting Expert, Professor of Economics
University of New Brunswick
Saint John, Canada
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Contents
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ISBN 978-92-5-106338-5
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© FAO 2010
Hishamunda, N., Poulain, F. & Neil Ridler
Prospective analysis of
aquaculture development.
FAO Fisheries and AquacultureTechnical Paper; No. 521. Rome, FAO. 2009. 104p.
Abstract
In order to evaluate the major impediments to aquaculture development in different
regions of the world and to indicate opportunities for expansion, a Delphi analysis was
undertaken. The Delphi method is particularly useful for sectors such as aquaculture
where discontinuities exist and where historic trends cannot be easily extrapolated
into the future. The recent global expansion of aquaculture is unlikely to continue
at the same pace; however, certain regions have underexploited resources and offer
considerable potential. The Delphi method allowed experts in different regions to
indicate where the potential and constraints are; they were also encouraged to offer
their policy solutions.
Experts from Latin America and the Caribbean were particularly optimistic about
opportunities for future aquaculture expansion in their region. With a plentiful natural
resource base and sufficient demand for fish products, their principal concern was
lack of financing and of human capacity. Other regions such as Eastern Europe were
less sanguine partly because of problems with species or with external factors such
as negative public perceptions towards aquaculture. However, there was a consensus
in all regions that aquaculture should be encouraged. Reasons given ranged from the
contribution of aquaculture to food security and poverty alleviation to the role of
aquaculture in reducing pressure on wild fisheries. |
Preparation of this document (Download 
233 Kb)
Abstract
Contents
Foreword
1. Background and summary
2. Method (Download 57Kb)
2.1 The Delphi method
2.2 Application of the Delphi method in this study
2.3 Response rate
2.4 Questions
3. Overall results (Download 61 Kb)
3.1 Should aquaculture be encouraged and why?
3.2 What factors have contributed to the positive development
of aquaculture in the past ?
3.3 What factors affected aquaculture development
negatively in the past – will they become more determinant
over time ?
3.4 What are the “unexplored opportunities ” that would have
a very large positive impact in regions?
4. Common constraints and
strategies (Download 61 Kb)
4.1 Lack of (good) policies
4.2 Financing
4.3 Feed constraints and policies
4.4 Seed constraints and policies
4.5 Perceptions of and opposition to aquaculture
4.6 Technology
4.7 Summary
5. Results by regions (Download 115 Kb)
5.1 Africa
5.2 Asia and the Pacific
5.3 Latin America
5.4 North America
5.5 Eastern Europe
5.6 Western Europe
6. Conclusions (Download 49 Kb)
References
7. Appendixes (Download 86 Kb - Download 78 Kb - Download 61 Kb - Download 78 Kb - Download 623 Kb)
Appendix 1 Africa
Appendix 2 Asia and the Pacific
Appendix 3 Latin America
Appendix 4 North America
Appendix 5 Eastern Europe
Appendix 6 Western Europe
