35. This paper highlighted the role of supply price elasticities in the price-policy formulation process. The policy implications resulting from the absolute magnitudes and signs of such parameters were illustrated through the use of estimates obtained directly from the Zimbabwe livestock commercial data and from comparative studies for some countries. The elasticity estimates indicate a wide dispersion across countries and across the expectation models fitted to the Zimbabwe data. As a result, depending on the researchers' elasticity estimates, the resulting policy recommendations will not be unique. For example, the usage of the elasticity estimates provided by the geometric model will indicate a continuous herd inventory build up corresponding to a sustained beef price increase while those obtained from the almon models indicate a decline in the cattle herd in the long-run.
36. The large diversity in the signs and absolute mangitudes of the elasticity estimates need not be a reflection of the inherent weakness of the quantitative models. It rather reflects the limited experience of the policy analysts in adapting the relevant quantitative research tool to a particular policy scenario. As a result of such limitation, the process of model validation through formal statistical tests and informal critiques of persons with substantial field experience assumes an important role. It is recognized that in the actual policy planning system, the demand for a quick sum-around time in model results exerts a substantial pressure to curtail the validation phase. The long-term minimization of the pressures from immediate research policy feedbacks will rely largely on how much risk policy-makers are willing to take with inaccurate quantitative results.
