FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.2 - April 2000 p. 2

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BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000
forecast 		Change 1999/2000
over 1998/99
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/ (. . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) (percentage)
Wheat 548 589 613 598 589 -1.4
Coarse grains 810 920 905 912 876 -3.9
Rice, milled 370 383 386 390 400 2.5
(paddy) (551) (571) (577) (583) (598) 2.5
All cereals (incl. milled rice) 1 728 1 892 1 904 1 900 1 865 -1.8
Developing countries 958 1 025 1 003 1 039 1 021 -1.7
Developed countries 770 867 901 860 844 -1.9
WORLD IMPORTS 2/          
Wheat 100 102 100 97 103 5.7
Coarse grains 95 91 90 92 97 4.8
Rice (milled) 20 19 28 25 23 -8.1
All cereals 214 211 218 214 222 3.7
Developing countries 152 150 159 157 160 1.8
Developed countries 63 62 59 57 62 8.8
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/ 7.4 5.5 6.2 9.5    
WORLD UTILIZATION          
Wheat 563 575 591 589 595 0.9
Coarse grains 855 894 896 894 892 -0.2
Rice (milled) 373 380 382 391 398 1.8
All cereals 1 791 1 849 1 869 1 875 1 885 0.6
Developing countries 1 078 1 107 1 109 1 135 1 143 0.7
Developed countries 713 743 760 740 743 0.4
Per Caput Food Use (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )        
Developing countries 171 173 172 173 173 0.0
Developed countries 128 129 130 130 130 -0.1
WORLD STOCKS 4/ (. . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )        
Wheat 102 113 136 140 136 -3.1
Coarse grains 100 125 140 149 138 -7.9
Rice (milled) 52 56 55 57 59 4.3
All cereals 254 294 331 346 332 -4.0
Developing countries 152 174 165 174 172 -1.4
Developed countries 102 121 166 172 160 -6.6
Stocks as % of world (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )        
cereal consumption 13.7 15.7 17.6 18.3 17.4  
EXPORT PRICES 3/ (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )        
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/ 336 352 316 315 253 -19.7
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter) 216 181 142 120 111 5/ -9.0 6/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow) 159 135 112 95 91 5/ -4.2 6/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/            
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt 16.8 12.8 11.7 9.3 12.9 5/ 48.3 6/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 7/ (. . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )        
Roots & tubers production 1/ 359 378 372 359 364 1.3
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/ 745 802 783 810 802 -1.0
Per caput production (kg.) 8/ 212 225 216 219 214 -2.5
Cereal imports 2/ 79.3 69.4 78.5 70.3 70.2 -0.2
of which: Food aid 3/ 6.4 4.6 5.5 6.8    
Proportion of cereal import (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . )        
covered by food aid 8.1 6.6 7.0 9.6    
SOURCE: FAO

Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June. 4/. Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 5/ Average of quotations for July 1999-March 2000. 6/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown. 7/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 505 in 1997), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid. 8/ Includes rice on a milled basis.

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