The food situation has deteriorated in several parts of eastern Africa with the number of people in urgent need of assistance rising by more than 3 million to some 20 million in the last three months. In Kenya, drought during the current long rains season has aggravated an already severe scarcity of water and pasture resulting in large livestock losses. Starvation related deaths, particularly among children, are being reported. Nearly 3.3 million people are now estimated to be in urgent need of food assistance. In Eritrea, the upsurge in the border conflict with neighbouring Ethiopia in May/June 2000 and resulting widespread population displacement have aggravated an already precarious food supply situation due to drought and war. More than 1.5 million people, about one-half of the total population, are now estimated to have been displaced, with a large number of refugees crossing into neighbouring Sudan. The failure of two successive rainy seasons in the coastal regions has also severely affected nearly 300 000 people. In Ethiopia, with the failure of the secondary Belg season crop, the number of people in need of assistance has increased to about 10.2 million people. In Somalia, where 750 000 people are estimated to be in need of assistance, serious malnutrition rates are increasingly reported, reflecting diminished livelihoods due to successive droughts and long-term effects of years of insecurity and lack of investment in the economy. In Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Djibouti, despite generally stable food supply situation, some 3.7 million people depend on food assistance due to drought-induced crop losses and/or civil strife.
Serious food supply difficulties persist in the Great Lakes Region. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the military situation is reported to be "increasingly tense" following the enlarged involvement of neighbouring countries in the conflict. With the escalation of the civil conflict, the already critical food supply situation continues to deteriorate in eastern parts of the country where recent reports indicate a dramatic rise in mortality rates. In Burundi, a recent (June/July) FAO/WFP Mission found that insufficient and badly distributed rains during the 2000 B season reduced yields of cereal and pulse crops. The food situation of some 700 000 people still in re-groupment camps, the majority of whom were not able to cultivate during the 2000 B season, continues to give cause for serious concern. In neighbouring Rwanda, erratic and insufficient rains in several areas of the country affected the recently harvested 2000 B season crops. The food situation is also difficult for large groups of vulnerable populations, particularly in the north-west province of Ruhengeri seriously affected by high rates of malnutrition.
2000 cereal crop in southern Africa is forecast to be normal, notwithstanding the damage caused by floods and cyclones in parts. Harvesting of the main cereal crops is almost complete in most countries of the region, but delayed in some areas due to unseasonable rains in June. Dry weather followed by excessive rains, cyclones and floods resulted in sharply reduced production in some countries but, overall, the sub-region's cereal production, mainly maize, is forecast to be above normal. The food supply situation is therefore satisfactory, although continued food assistance is required in areas affected by the recent floods and cyclones, mainly in Mozambique and Madagascar. However, in Angola, the food situation of IDPs, estimated at nearly 2.6 million, is precarious. The global rate of acute malnutrition in IDP camps remains at a high level of 8.9 percent. Food aid requirements in the marketing year 2000/01 (April/March) are estimated at 330 000 tonnes of cereals.
The overall food supply situation is stable in western Africa, following above average or record crops in most countries last season, except Guinea Bissau due to the effect of civil strife. National food security stocks were replenished and markets are well supplied. Cereal prices are mostly stable and often much lower than in previous years. Early growing conditions in the current season are also favourable. However, agricultural activities in Sierra Leone have been disrupted by renewed civil disturbances from early May, at the critical planting period, pointing to a reduced rice crop this year. Sierra Leone and Liberia remain heavily dependent on international food assistance.
Sub-Saharan Africa's cereal import requirements in 2000 are forecast to increase over last year's high level of imports by some 4 percent, mainly reflecting reduced harvests in eastern Africa. Continuing balance of payments difficulties in a number of African countries mean that a substantial part of these imports will have to be met by food aid. Strong competition for food aid from other parts of the world affected by adverse weather and/or conflicts notwithstanding, additional food aid pledges are needed to avert a crisis. Logistical support is also badly needed to ensure adequate distribution.
