18. Data ranking is not a simple task because data demand is not unique. Each sector of the economy will not only require specific data forms but will also manifest shifting demand arising from changing market and political conditions.
19. The method adopted in this section with respect to livestock statistics prioritization is a pragmatic one. It classifies the livestock information set based on its strategic role in policy planning.
20. Foremost in the livestock data set which must be given immediate attention is that pertaining to livestock population. Acceptable cattle herd inventories are needed to evaluate livestock self-sufficiency status, livestock incomes, livestock import levels, regional and national technological changes and protein deficiencies. Current cattle herd estimates are based partly on special studies (e.g. ILCA data on herd composition and productivity indices for specific sites) and subjective estimates based on government vaccination records.
21. The existing 11 to 13 million heads of cattle reported for Nigeria by FLD have been partly used to analyse future beef self-sufficiency levels. A difficulty for such an analytic exercise is that informal trading in live animals between Nigeria and its bordering neighbours can range from 350 to 500 thousand head per year. Hence, if one adopts a stance of beef self-sufficiency, this implies foregoing the live animal import option. This will then require that a lower cattle herd inventory level will have to be used in making beef demand-supply gap estimates.
22. In the absence of good data sets on variables highly correlated with cattle population, the only option to estimate objectively cattle numbers will be to undertake a nationwide livestock survey. There is currently a proposal to generate livestock population data by species, by seasons, and by regions. The proposal is part of the Second Livestock Development Project. Already, an aerial data collection strategy has been proposed. While the aerial survey can generate quick estimates, it will be subject to potentially serious reporting errors in thick vegetative areas. It will also not be able to generate the necessary sampling frame which will be needed for future livestock herd surveys. Hence, ground surveys headed by an able team leader (preferably a person with substantial experience in applied statistics, farm surveys, and animal science) will have to be implemented. The team leader will have the difficult task of balancing non-sampling errors (survey inaccuracies arising from faulty questionnaires, uncooperative respondents, and dishonest data collectors) and sampling errors within his allotted budget.
23. Together with the herd inventory surveys, information on major farm livestock inputs (e.g. feeds) needs to be collected. Animal carrying capacities of communal grazing lands are needed information in order to be able to formulate technological intervention involving leguminous and other types of fodder. Feed and labor use levels are also necessary data inputs in looking into the comparative advantage of specific livestock production relative to cropping activities for particular regions.
24. Livestock price data collection at the farm, wholesale, and retail levels must be improved and expanded relative to the existing system. For the price data set to be useful to entrepreneurs and other users, it must have a strong correspondence with quality, seasonal, locational, and intermediate processing variations. It has already been proposed to undertake a pilot survey on livestock prices in a major wholesale market in which reported prices will be correlated with the above attributes of the animals sold. The aim of the proposed exercise is to test questionnaire designs and the operational capabilities of data collectors at field level. To avoid the danger of taxing scarce resources at the state level, only major livestock prices will be collected at carefully designated frequencies and only for specific livestock farmers and marketing agents. The list of respondents will have to be determined a priori through a logical and practical statistical framework jointly formulated by personnel of the state and FLD Market Information Unit.
25. Animal movements by hoof, rail, and road should still be collected by month and by states through secondary data sources to minimize costs. Such data will provide information on the major marketing channels used by livestock producers and traders. A tedious way to improve the data quality on animal movements will be to validate data reported at the state level through relevant intra-regional trade documents. An alternative data check will be for the FLD Market Information Unit team leader to visit major cattle trading posts on a regular basis to obtain field impressions. The animal movements data could also integrate reports on animals with severe and moderate health problems. This will alert FLD's animal health personnel on a potential geographic source of disease outbreak.
26. Feed quality and prices must be generated through regular periodic small surveys of feed producers at designated sites. Feed inputs account for a large portion of the cost of commercial poultry and pig producers. Information on feed inputs is essential to monitor the overall economic protection extended by the government to the poultry and pig industries.
27. A reasonable set of time series data on world prices and import levels of major livestock commodities and inputs must be maintained. This can be easily obtained from secondary sources such as the World Bank Commodity and Price Outlook reports and the FAO Trade Yearbooks. The world price data are usually used in computing the nominal rates of protection (NPC) - an index which indicates how government policies will affect domestic consumer and producer sectors.
28. Site specific animal recording schemes can be implemented at a modest scale to evaluate through time the effect of various types of economic and technological interventions administered to a particular animal specie. It is suggested that detailed to a particular animal specie. It is suggested that detailed animal recording schemes be limited to technological evaluations at the micro level because of the potential geometric increase in costs once the former is started on a grand scale. The animal records for a dairy project will include, for example, information on sire/progeny, breed, calving intervals, lactation period, daily milk output, mortality rates, feed intakes, etc.
29. Small household consumption surveys must be undertaken to provide some information on the response of consumers to changes in livestock prices, incomes, and quality. For urban consumers, panels can be established to minimize survey costs. A major issue related to this will be the degree of cooperation of the panel members and the representativeness of the panel.
30. The list of data categories covered is no doubt non-exhaustive. It is likely that if the proposed data collection activities are implemented efficiently, more demands will be imposed on FLD. It has been recommended that data functions of the Federal Livestock Department be part of the prime mandate of the four key specialist areas of a proposed FLD Planning Unit (i.e. planning, production, marketing, and information). This will assure that the data set collected are at least used for livestock policy planning within FLD. FLD should also discourage data collection projects which will generate information which will not be used productively. After all, data inputs are just like any other commodity - they have a price tag and that can be quite high considering the severe resource constraints of FLD.
