PART II
World and regional review:
facts and figures

1. TRENDS IN UNDERNOURISHMENT

• FAO estimates the number of undernourished people in the world at 842 million: 798 million in the developing countries, 34 million in the countries in transition and 10 million in the developed countries.
• More than half of the total numbers of undernourished (60 percent) are found in Asia and the Pacific followed by sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 24 percent of the total (Figure 15).
• The picture is different in terms of the proportion of the population that is undernourished in the different developing country regions (Figure 16). By far the highest incidence of undernourishment is found in sub-Saharan Africa, where FAO estimates that 33 percent of the population is undernourished. This is significantly higher than the 16 percent undernourished estimated for Asia and the Pacific and the 10 percent estimated for both Latin America and the Caribbean and the Near East and North Africa.
• Over the past two decades, progress has been made in reducing undernourishment in the developing countries. The incidence of undernourishment has declined from 28 percent of the population two decades ago to 17 percent according to data from 1999-2001. However, as a result of population growth, the decline in absolute numbers has been slower. In addition, the decline was far more pronounced in the course of the 1980s, but appears to have slowed down in the 1990s.
• Most of the improvement has been concentrated in Asia and the Pacific, which halved the incidence of undernourishment over the past two decades (Figure 17). In sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, the very limited reduction in the percentage incidence of undernourishment has been more than counterbalanced by population growth, resulting in an increase in absolute numbers of undernourished. In the Near East and North Africa the percentage incidence of undernourishment in 1999-2001 stood at about the same level as two decades earlier.

2. FOOD EMERGENCIES AND FOOD AID

• A large number of countries and people continue to be affected by food emergencies. As of August 2003, the number of countries facing serious food shortages requiring international assistance stood at 38 (Map 1). Twenty-three of these were in Africa, eight in Asia, five in Latin America and two in Europe. In many of these countries, the food shortages are compounded by the impact of the HIV-AIDS pandemic on food production, marketing, transport and utilization.
• Although adverse weather conditions are behind many of the emergency situations, human-produced disasters are also a major factor. Civil strife or the existence of internally displaced people or refugees are among the reasons for more than half of the reported food emergencies in Africa, as well as both instances in Europe. Conflict and economic problems were cited as the main cause of more than 35 percent of food emergencies between 1992 and 2003.
• The international price crisis that for three years has stricken the coffee sector has been a major cause of increased food insecurity in Central America, where four countries were reported as facing food emergencies.
• Food aid in cereals fell to 7.4 million tonnes in 2001/02 (June to July), 2.3 million tonnes below that for 2000/01 and the lowest level since 1997/98. The decline concerned nearly all recipient regions. The top five recipients of cereal food aid in 2001/02 were Afghanistan, Bangladesh, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Ethiopia and the Philippines. The first three also topped the list in the previous year (Figures 18 and 19).
• Cereal food aid has been characterized by relatively large fluctuations but has declined overall relative to the level of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Larger overall shipments were recorded in 1998/99 and 1999/2000, largely as a result of major shipments to the Russian Federation.
• In per capita terms, shipments have declined substantially relative to the early 1990s (Table 12). Disregarding exceptionally large shipments to the Russian Federation in certain years, Africa remains the largest recipient in per capita terms, albeit at levels well below those of a decade ago.

TABLE 12: Per capita shipments of food aid in cereals (In grain equivalent)

3. CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

• The rate of growth of global crop and livestock production has slowed in each of the last three years, following the strong output growth recorded in 1999 (Figure 20). The slow rate of growth in 2002 of less than 1 percent at the global level implies a reduction in output in per capita terms.
• Global output growth in each of the three years 2000-2002 is below the average of each of the three preceding decades. This pattern applies to both the developed and the developing country groups, both of which have seen output growth slow in each of the last three years. However, the trend towards lower agricultural output growth over the last few years, both in absolute and in per capita terms, is most clearly discernible for the developing country group (Figure 21).
• The trend towards lower agricultural output growth in the developing country group is essentially accounted for by Asia and the Pacific (more specifically, China), where the high rates of agricultural output growth recorded since the beginning of the economic reform process in the late 1970s have been tapering off in recent years. China has indeed attained very high levels of per capita food consumption, which is also expected to slow down growth in demand for food products in the future.
• Sub-Saharan Africa has recorded lower growth in agricultural output over the last three years. This follows relatively favourable rates of output growth during most of the 1990s. In 2002, the provisional data point to stagnant levels of production.
• Latin America and the Caribbean has experienced relatively favourable growth rates of production over the last five to six years, averaging around 3 percent per year, in line with the earlier part of the 1990s and above the lower rates of the 1980s.
• In the Near East and North Africa, agricultural performance continues to be characterized by pronounced fluctuations because of the climatic conditions of most countries in the region. After three years of consecutive declines in output for the region as a whole, provisional estimates suggest some recovery in levels of production in 2002.
• Long-term trends in per capita food production provide an indication of the contribution of the sector to food supplies in the regions (Figure 22). Over the last three decades, Latin America and the Caribbean and, in particular, Asia and the Pacific have seen sustained growth in per capita food production. In the Near East and North Africa, the increase has been far more limited amid pronounced fluctuations. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region that has not seen increases in per capita food production over the last three decades; after a pronounced decline in the course of the 1970s and early 1980s, per capita food production has stagnated and is still at levels reported two decades ago.

4. WORLD CEREAL SUPPLY SITUATION

• Since the strong increase in 1996, global cereal production has been stagnating. Global utilization, on the other hand, has been continuing on an upward trend and has been exceeding production by significant amounts since the 2000/01 marketing year (Figures 23 and 24).
• FAO's latest forecasts for global cereal production in 2003 and the first forecast for utilization in 2003/04 indicate that output will remain below the expected level of utilization and stocks will have to be drawn down again in 2004 for the fourth consecutive year.
• As in the previous seasons, lower stocks in China account for the bulk of the reduction in world stocks. Of the overall decline in cereal stocks since 1999, China alone accounted for nearly 70 percent as a result of deliberate policies to downsize cereal inventories through exports.

5. INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICE TRENDS

• Overall, agricultural commodity prices peaked in the mid-1990s, and then tended downwards during the second half of the decade, although for some commodities prices began to recover during 2001 and 2002 (Figure 25).
• In general, agricultural commodity prices during the second half of the 1990s were influenced mainly by supply response to previously high prices and prices of close substitutes, the Asian financial crisis (which undermined economic growth prospects and lowered demand in many countries) and the continuing support to production and exports by a number of countries.
• The sharpest price decline has been that of coffee. Significant oversupply on world markets, mainly as a result of the expansion of planted area in Viet Nam and the devaluation of the Brazilian real, led to further sharp price declines in 2001, bringing average prices for the year to around one-third of the level in 1997. This prolonged period of low prices resulted in supply reductions that have since contributed to some recovery in prices, although these nevertheless remain depressed.
• Lower international prices have moderated the food import bills of developing countries, which, as a group, are now net food importers. However, although lower basic food prices on international markets bring short-term benefits to net food-importing developing countries, lower international prices can also have negative impacts on domestic production in developing countries that might have lingering effects on their food security.
• Although many countries may have benefited from lower prices, others have experienced negative effects on their ability to generate export earnings, in particular developing country exporters of agricultural raw materials, beverages and other tropical products, many of which are often dependent for a significant share of their export earnings on one or just a few agricultural exports.

6. AGRICULTURAL TRADE

• After a relatively strong expansion in the mid-1990s, global agricultural exports have been declining in value terms between 1997 and 2001 (Figure 26), leading to a further reduction in the share of agricultural trade to less than 7 percent of total merchandise trade - in continuation of the long-term trend in this direction (Figure 27).
• The agricultural trade of both developed and developing countries has been affected by the decline in value terms (Figures 28 and 29).
• Agricultural imports and exports of developing countries have been roughly in balance over the last decade but with widely varying situations among the developing country regions.
• In particular, Latin America and the Caribbean has seen a widening of its agricultural trade surplus. At the same time, Asia and the Pacific has become a net agricultural importer, and the significant structural deficit of the Near East and North Africa has shown no signs of diminishing.

7. EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE

• Measured at constant 1995 prices, external assistance to agriculture declined in 1999 following increases in the three preceding years (Figures 30 and 31). Data for 2000 indicate stagnant levels of external assistance to agriculture.
• Most of the decline in 1999 was a result of lower levels of multilateral assistance. Overall, multilateral assistance has been fluctuating more over the last few years, whereas bilateral assistance has remained relatively more constant.
• In real terms, external assistance to agriculture has fallen significantly since the early 1980s.
• On the other hand, the share of concessional assistance in the total has tended to increase, reaching more than 80 percent in 2000 (Figure 32).
• When measured per agricultural worker, external assistance to agriculture has declined significantly since the peak in the early 1980s. The decline has been particularly severe in sub-Saharan Africa, where external assistance per employed person in agriculture is roughly one-quarter of the peak 1982 level.
• There are significant differences in assistance per agricultural worker among the developing country regions, with levels in Latin America and the Caribbean vastly exceeding those of the other regions (Figure 33).
• External assistance to agriculture also does not tend to reach the neediest countries in terms of the prevalence of undernourishment. Indeed, external assistance per agricultural worker is higher in those countries with the lowest prevalence of undernourished people in the population (Figure 34).

8. AGRICULTURAL CAPITAL STOCK¹

• Agricultural capital stock per agricultural worker differs very significantly among the developing country regions, with levels in Latin America and the Caribbean and in the Near East and North Africa significantly above those in sub-Saharan Africa and in Asia and the Pacific.
• Since 1975, agricultural capital stock per agricultural worker has increased relatively significantly only in Latin America and the Caribbean with only limited increases in percentage terms in the Near East and North Africa and Asia and the Pacific (Figure 35).
• The feature of most concern is the slow, but seemingly inexorable decline in capital stock per agricultural worker in sub-Saharan Africa.
• Relating capital stock per agricultural worker to prevalence of undernourishment shows that countries with the lowest incidence of undernourishment have the highest level of capital stock per agricultural worker and have seen the largest increase over the past 25 years (Figure 36). Countries where more than 35 percent of the population is undernourished have the lowest levels of capital stock per worker and have even experienced a decline over the past 25 years.

9. FISHERIES: PRODUCTION, DISPOSITION AND TRADE

• Total fishery production in 2001 was reported to be 130.2 million tonnes, of which 37.9 million tonnes was from aquaculture (Figure 37).
• World capture fisheries production declined from 95.4 million tonnes in 2000 to 92.4 million tonnes in 2001 (Figure 37). Most of the fluctuations in capture production in recent years have been the result of variations in catches of Peruvian anchoveta, which are driven by climatic conditions (i.e. the “El Niño” phenomenon). Excluding anchoveta, global capture production has remained fairly stable since 1995.
• World aquaculture production has been increasing rapidly in recent years and now accounts for almost 30 percent of total fisheries production (Figure 37). Most of the expansion has been attributable to China, which is now responsible for more than two-thirds of total aquaculture production in volume terms.
• In 2001, about 38 percent (live-weight equivalent) of world fish production entered international trade (Figures 38 and 39). Developing countries supplied slightly more than 50 percent of exports, with the first eight or nine exporters accounting for two-thirds of the developing country total. More than 80 percent of the total world fisheries import value was concentrated in the developed countries, with Japan and the United States accounting for 45 percent of the total.
• In 2001, an estimated about 31 million tonnes of world fishery production were used for reduction to meal, leaving an estimated 99 million tonnes for human consumption.
• In per capita terms, whereas total supplies of fish for food from capture have been stagnating in recent years, per capita supplies from aquaculture have been increasing strongly (Figure 40). This is particularly so in China, where per capita supplies from aquaculture have expanded to the point of providing slightly more than 75 percent of total per capita supplies of fish for food, compared with only 18 percent in the rest of the world.

10. FORESTRY

• World roundwood production in 2002 reached an estimated 3 380 million cubic metres, about 1.1 percent above the level of the preceding year (Figure 42). Total roundwood production has been stagnant over the last decade, with production in 2002 at about the level of a decade earlier.
• Of total roundwood production in 2002, 47 percent was accounted for by industrial roundwood and 53 percent by woodfuel.
• The larger part of this production, 2 015 million cubic metres or 60 percent of the total in 2002, was accounted for by developing countries (Figure 42).
• In addition, except for 2000 and 2001, production in developing countries has continued on an upward trend throughout the last decade, whereas production in the developed countries, following a significant decline in the early 1990s, is still well below the peak levels of 1989-1990.
• The composition of total roundwood production differs significantly between the developed and the developing country groups. In the developed countries, industrial roundwood accounts for the bulk of production, whereas woodfuel only represents around 15 percent of the total. In the developing countries, almost 80 percent of roundwood production is accounted for by woodfuel, which is continuing on an upward trend.
• Thus the larger part of industrial roundwood production continues to be accounted for by the developed countries, which provide more than 70 percent of the total, although the share of developing countries has increased over time.
• The Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000 indicated that net annual average loss in global forest cover from 1990 to 2000 was an estimated 9.4 million hectares or 0.2 percent. The largest percentage losses were in Africa and South America (Figure 46).

¹ The capital stock in agriculture refers to the replacement value in monetary terms (at the end of the year) of tangible fixed assets produced or acquired for repeated use in the agriculture production process over a long period. The estimates of capital stock in agriculture have been derived using physical data on livestock, tractors, irrigated land and land under permanent crops, etc., and the average prices for the year 1995.