Appendixes

Appendix 1

a. LIST OF THE REGIONS AND COUNTRIES

EAST ASIA

Indonesia
Korea, Rep.
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand

CHINA and ASIAN CENTRALLY PLANNED COUNTRIES

China
Kampuchea
Korea, DPR
Laos
Mongolia
Viet Nam

SOUTH ASIA

Bangladesh
India
Myanmar
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka

NEAR EAST in ASIA

Afghanistan
Iran
Iraq
Jordan
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Turkey
Yemen

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Central African Rep.
Chad
Congo
Cote d'Ivoire
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Somalia
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Uganda
Zaire
Zambia
Zimbabwe

NORTH AFRICA

Algeria
Egypt
Libya
Morocco
Tunisia

LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN

Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Trinidad and Tobago
Uruguay
Venezuela

b. LIST OF COMMODITIES

Crop groups	Crops
1. Temperate cereals	Wheat Barley Other cereals
2. Rice	Rice
3. Maize	Maize
4. Sorghum/millet	Sorghum Millet
5. Pulses	Pulses
6. Roots/tubers/plantains	Potatoes Sweet potatoes and yams Other roots Cassava Plantains
7. Vegetable oils and oilseeds	Oil crops Palm oil Soybeans Groundnuts Sunflower seeds Sesame seeds Coconuts Seed cotton
8. Sugar	Sugar beet Sugar cane
9. Other crops	Vegetables Bananas Citrus fruit Other fruit Cocoa Coffee Tea Tobacco Jute and hard fibres Rubber

Livestock

Beef, veal and buffalo meat
Mutton, lamb and goat meat
Pork
Poultry meat
Milk and dairy products
Eggs

Appendix 2

POPULATION¹ AND PER CAPUT² CONSUMPTION FOR DIFFERENT PRODUCTS FOR NINE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

¹ Population data (in million inhabitants) presented in this table are from FAO, adapted from UN [1994]. In AT2010 the UN 1990 estimates were used. The estimates of per caput consumption in kg per caput per year for all developing countries with or without China and centrally planned Asian countries differ slightly from the AT2010 forecasts due to differences in these population assumptions.

² For per caput consumption the period 1960-2010 FAO data and estimates as presented in Alexandratos (1995) were used. For scenarios covering the period 2010 - 2100 the rates of change proposed by Zuidema et al. (1994) were scaled to the 1990-2010 FAO estimates. After scaling the per caput consumption assumptions were corrected for some regions (see notes 3-7).

DEVELOPING INCLUDING CHINA AND C.P. ASIAN COUNTRIES

DEVELOPING EXCLUDING CHINA C.P. ASIAN COUNTRIES

EAST ASIA³

³ East Asia: the per caput consumption for maize and sorghum/millet were assumed to be constant in the period 2010-2100. Milk consumption is assumed to increase to a level of about 10 kg per caput per year, and in addition consumption of milk-derived products is 50 g milk equivalents per day. A similar assumption was made for China ⁴.

CHINA AND CENTRALLY PLANNED ASIAN COUNTRIES⁴

⁴ China and Asian centrally planned countries: the decrease in the consumption of pork between 2010 and 2100 was removed. Milk consumption in a large part of China is very low. The milk consumption of about 2.5 kg milk per caput per year in 1960-1980 is the consumption of a small part of the total population calculated as an average for the whole region. The scenario is based on the assumption that the per caput consumption of milk-derived products will increase to 50 g milk per day, giving a total of close to 20 kg milk per year.

SOUTH ASIA⁵

⁵ South Asia: the decrease to zero per caput food consumption of sorghum/millet for the period 2010-2100 was changed in a constant level of 7 kg per caput per year. Although vegetarianism currently dominates in South Asia, the increase in the meat consumption to ~ 10 kg meat per caput per year may be low compared to other regions with similar economic development.

NEAR EAST IN ASIA⁶

⁶ Near East in Asia: the decrease in sheep & goat meat consumption between 2015 and 2100 was removed; consumption of sorghum/millet and of roots/tubers/plantain was assumed constant after 2010.

NORTH AFRICA⁷

⁷ North Africa: the growth of the consumption of meat, milk and eggs was assumed equal to that of the Near East in Asia region.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA⁸

⁸ Sub-Saharan Africa: the growth in per caput consumption of all meat products, eggs, milk and sorghum/millet is assumed to be 50% of the growth assumed by Zuidema et al. (1994) for total Africa.

LATIN AMERICA⁹

⁹ Latin America: the decrease in mutton and goat meat consumption after 2010 is removed; consumption of sorghum/millet is assumed to be constant after 2010.

Appendix 3

A. DOMESTIC DEMAND AND PRODUCTION (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR) AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE) FOR BEEF FOR NINE DEVELOPING REGIONS

B. CARCASS WEIGHT (KG/HEAD), OFF TAKE RATE (%) AND POPULATION (MILLION HEAD) OF CATTLE FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. THREE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE PRESENTED FOR EACH PROPERTY

Appendix 4

A. DOMESTIC DEMAND AND PRODUCTION (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR) AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE) FOR PORK FOR NINE DEVELOPING REGIONS

B. CARCASS WEIGHT (KG/HEAD), OFF TAKE RATE (%) AND POPULATION (MILLION HEAD) OF PIGS FOR 7 DEVELOPING REGIONS. THREE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE PRESENTED FOR EACH PARAMETER

Appendix 5

A. DOMESTIC DEMAND AND PRODUCTION (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR) AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE) FOR MUTTON AND GOAT MEAT FOR NINE DEVELOPING REGIONS

B. CARCASS WEIGHT (KG/HEAD), OFF-TAKE RATE (%) AND POPULATION (MILLION HEAD) OF SHEEP AND GOATS FOR 7 DEVELOPING REGIONS. THREE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE PRESENTED FOR EACH PARAMETER

Appendix 6

A. DOMESTIC DEMAND AND PRODUCTION (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR) AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE) FOR POULTRY MEAT FOR NINE DEVELOPING REGIONS

B. CARCASS WEIGHT (KG/HEAD), OFF-TAKE RATE (%) AND POPULATION (MILLION HEAD) OF POULTRY FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. OFF TAKE RATE CALCULATED OVER THE POPULATION GIVEN AS TOTAL POPULATION MINUS THE NUMBER OF LAYING HENS. THREE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE PRESENTED FOR EACH PARAMETER

Appendix 7

A. DOMESTIC DEMAND AND PRODUCTION (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR) AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE) FOR EGGS FOR NINE DEVELOPING REGIONS

B. EGG PRODUCTION (KG PER HEAD PER YEAR) AND POPULATION (MILLION HEAD) OF LAYING HENS FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. THREE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE PRESENTED FOR EACH PARAMETER

Appendix 8

A. DOMESTIC DEMAND AND PRODUCTION (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR) AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE) FOR MILK FOR NINE DEVELOPING REGIONS

B. MILK PRODUCTION (KG PER HEAD PER YEAR) AND POPULATION (MILLION HEAD) OF DAIRY CATTLE FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. THREE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE PRESENTED FOR EACH PARAMETER

C. MILK PRODUCTION (KG PER HEAD) AND POPULATION (MILLION HEAD) OF MILKING SHEEP AND GOATS FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. THREE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE PRESENTED FOR EACH PARAMETER

Appendix 9

A. DEMAND AND PRODUCTION (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR) AND SELF SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE) FOR TEMPERATE CEREALS FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS

B. YIELD IN TON/HA OF TEMPERATE CEREALS FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. M = MEDIUM, THE CONTINUATION OF THE AT2010 PREDICTION WITH INTERMEDIATE YIELD CEILINGS; H = HIGH, 1.25 X THE AT2010 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AND HIGH YIELD CEILINGS; L = LOW, 0.75 X THE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF AT2010 AND LOW YIELD CEILINGS

C. HARVESTED AREAS IN 1000 HA OF TEMPERATE CEREALS FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. M, H, L = RESULTS CORRESPONDING TO THE MEDIUM (M), HIGH (H) AND LOW (L) YIELD SCENARIOS, RESPECTIVELY, IN APPENDIX 9B

Appendix 10

A. DEMAND AND PRODUCTION (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR) AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE) FOR RICE FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS

B. YIELD IN TON/HA OF RICE FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. M = MEDIUM, THE CONTINUATION OF THE AT2010 PREDICTION WITH INTERMEDIATE YIELD CEILINGS; H = HIGH, 1.25 X THE AT2010 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AND HIGH YIELD CEILINGS; L = LOW, 0.75 X THE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF AT2010 AND LOW YIELD CEILINGS

C. HARVESTED AREAS IN 1000 HA OF RICE FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. M, H, L = RESULTS CORRESPONDING TO THE MEDIUM (M). HIGH (H) AND LOW (L) YIELD SCENARIOS, RESPECTIVELY, IN APPENDIX 10B

Appendix 11

A. DEMAND AND PRODUCTION (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR) AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE) FOR MAIZE FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS

B. YIELD IN TON/HA OF MAIZE FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. M = MEDIUM, THE CONTINUATION OF THE AT2010 PREDICTION WITH INTERMEDIATE YIELD CEILINGS; H = HIGH, 1.25 X THE AT2010 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AND HIGH YIELD CEILINGS; L = LOW, 0.75 X THE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF AT2010 AND LOW YIELD CEILINGS

C. HARVESTED AREAS IN 1000 HA OF MAIZE FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. M, H, L = RESULTS CORRESPONDING TO THE MEDIUM (M), HIGH (H) AND LOW (L) YIELD SCENARIOS, RESPECTIVELY, IN APPENDIX 11B

Appendix 12

A. DEMAND AND PRODUCTION (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR) AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE) FOR SORGHUM AND MILLET FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS

B. yield in TON/HA OF SORGHUM/MILLET FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. M = MEDIUM, THE CONTINUATION OF THE AT2010 PREDICTION WITH INTERMEDIATE YIELD CEILINGS; H = HIGH, 1.25 X THE AT2010 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AND HIGH YIELD CEILINGS; L = LOW, 0.75 X THE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF AT2010 AND LOW YIELD CEILINGS

C. HARVESTED AREAS IN 1000 HA OF SORGHUM/MILLET FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. M, H, L = RESULTS CORRESPONDING TO THE MEDIUM (M), HIGH (H) AND LOW (L) YIELD SCENARIOS, RESPECTIVELY IN APPENDIX 12B

Appendix 13

A. DEMAND AND PRODUCTION (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR) AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE) FOR PULSES FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS

B. YIELD IN TON/HA OF PULSES FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. M = MEDIUM, THE CONTINUATION OF THE AT2010 PREDICTION WITH INTERMEDIATE YIELD CEILINGS; H = HIGH, 1.25 X THE AT2010 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AND HIGH YIELD CEILINGS; L = LOW, 0.75 X THE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF AT2010 AND LOW YIELD CEILINGS

C. HARVESTED AREAS IN 1000 HA OF PULSES FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. M, H, L = RESULTS CORRESPONDING TO THE MEDIUM (M), HIGH (H) AND LOW (L) YIELD SCENARIOS, RESPECTIVELY IN APPENDIX 13B

Appendix 14

A. DEMAND, PRODUCTION AND USE AS FEED (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR), SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE OF DEMAND) AND FEED INTENSITY* FOR ROOT AND TUBER CROPS AND PLANTAINS FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS

B. YIELD IN TON/HA OF ROOT AND TUBER CROPS AND PLANTAINS FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. M = MEDIUM, THE CONTINUATION OF THE AT2010 PREDICTION WITH INTERMEDIATE YIELD CEILINGS; H = HIGH, 1.25 X THE AT2010 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AND HIGH YIELD CEILINGS; L = LOW, 0.75 X THE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF AT2010 AND LOW YIELD CEILINGS

C. HARVESTED AREAS IN 1000 HA OF ROOT AND TUBER CROPS AND PLANTAINS FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. M, H, L = RESULTS CORRESPONDING TO THE MEDIUM (M), HIGH (H) AND LOW (L) YIELD SCENARIOS, RESPECTIVELY. IN APPENDIX 14B

Appendix 15

DEMAND AND PRODUCTION (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR) AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE) FOR OIL CROPS FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. DEMAND AND PRODUCTION ARE IN OIL EQUIVALENTS. EXTRACTION IS THE % OIL EXTRACTED FROM THE CROP

Appendix 16

A. DEMAND AND PRODUCTION (IN MILLION TON PER YEAR) AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIOS (IN PERCENTAGE) FOR SUGAR CROPS FOR DEVELOPING REGIONS. DEMAND AND PRODUCTION IN SUGAR EQUIVALENTS, EXTRACTION IS THE % SUGAR EXTRACTED FROM THE CROP BIOMASS

B. YIELD IN TON/HA IN HARVESTED BIOMASS OF SUGAR CROPS FOR DEVELOPING REGIONS. M = MEDIUM, THE CONTINUATION OF THE AT2010 PREDICTION WITH INTERMEDIATE YIELD CEILINGS; H = HIGH, 1.25 X THE AT2010 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AND HIGH YIELD CEILINGS; L = LOW, 0.75 X THE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF AT2010 AND LOW YIELD CEILINGS

C. HARVESTED AREAS IN 1000 HA OF SUGAR CROPS FOR DEVELOPING REGIONS. M, H, L = RESULTS CORRESPONDING TO THE MEDIUM (M), HIGH (H) AND LOW (L) YIELD SCENARIOS, RESPECTIVELY, IN APPENDIX 16B

Appendix 17

TOTAL HARVESTED AREAS FOR THREE SCENARIOS AND TWO VARIANT SCENARIOS FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. AREAS IN MILLION HA

Appendix 18

A. TOTAL FERTILIZER USE FOR 1960-1990 AND FERTILIZER REQUIREMENT FOR 2010-2100 FOR THREE SCENARIOS AND SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. TOTAL NPK = TOTAL FERTILIZER USE/REQUIREMENT IN MILLION TON N + P₂O₅ + K₂O PER YEAR, NPK USE/HA = KG N + P₂O₅ + K₂O PER HA PER YEAR

B. ANNUAL GROWTH (%) OF SYNTHETIC FERTILISER USE FOR THE PERIOD 1960-1990. AND OF THE REQUIRED NUTRIENTS FOR CROP PRODUCTION FOR DEVELOPING REGIONS FOR THREE SCENARIOS. M, H, L = MEDIUM. HIGH AND LOW SCENARIOS

Appendix 19

TOTAL IRRIGATED AREAS FOR THREE SCENARIOS FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. AREAS IN MILLION HA

	1989	2010	2025	2050	2075	2100
EAST ASIA
Medium	17	19	20	22	22	22
High		20	21	23	24	25
Low		19	19	20	20	21
CHINA AND C.P. ASIAN COUNTRIESa
Medium	51	58	61	64	65	65
High		60	64	67	69	70
Low		56	59	60	61	62
SOUTH ASIA
Medium	76	99	111	119	126	132
High		105	118	129	136	141
Low		92	100	108	113	115
NEAR EAST IN ASIA
medium	15	19	21	23	25	25
High		20	22	25	25	25
Low		18	19	20	21	22
NORTH AFRICA
Medium	5	6	6	7	7	7
High		6	6	7	7	7
Low		5	6	6	6	6
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Medium	4	6	7	8	8	8
High		7	8	9	10	10
Low		5	6	7	7	7
LATIN AMERICA
Medium	14	18	20	21	22	22
High		19	21	24	25	25
Low		17	18	19	20	20

^a For China base year estimates of yields and harvested areas are not made in AT2010. Therefore the 1990 estimate is presented here.

Appendix 20

CROPPING INTENSITY FOR THREE SCENARIOS FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. CROPPING INTENSITY IN % OF ARABLE AREA

	1989	2010	2025	2050	2075	2100
EAST ASIA
Medium	107	111	112	114	114	115
High		112	114	115	116	117
Low		110	111	112	112	113
CHINA AND C.P. ASIAN COUNTRIESa
Medium	142	154	159	163	165	166
High		157	164	169	172	173
Low		151	155	158	159	160
SOUTH ASIA
Medium	110	119	122	125	127	128
High		121	126	129	131	132
Low		117	119	121	122	123
NEAR EAST IN ASIA
Medium	90	98	101	104	105	106
High		100	104	108	110	111
Low		96	98	100	101	102
NORTH AFRICA
Medium	69	82	87	92	94	95
High		86	92	99	102	103
Low		79	82	86	87	88
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Medium	55	62	65	67	68	68
High		64	67	70	71	72
Low		60	62	64	65	65
LATIN AMERICA
Medium	61	67	69	71	72	73
High		69	72	74	75	76
Low		65	67	69	69	70

^a For China base year estimates of yields and harvested areas are not made in AT2010. Therefore the 1990 estimate is presented here.

Appendix 21

TOTAL ARABLE AREAS FOR THREE SCENARIOS AND TWO FEED INTENSITY VARIANTS OF THE MEDIUM SCENARIO FOR SEVEN DEVELOPING REGIONS. AREAS IN MILLION HA

	1990a	2010	2025	2050	2075	2100
EAST ASIA
Medium	59 (62)	66	65	63	65	68
High		57	52	49	48	50
Low		72	75	82	86	92
Medium, low feed		65	63	60	61	64
Medium, high feed		66	66	67	69	72
CHINA AND C.P. ASIAb
Medium	109	115	124	120	116	113
High		103	107	102	96	92
Low		124	139	141	139	138
Medium, low feed		115	121	115	110	107
Medium, high feed		116	129	130	126	122
SOUTH ASIA
Medium	196 (201)	188	181	176	168	173
High		160	144	136	130	136
Low		214	226	237	235	232
Medium, low feed		188	180	174	166	171
Medium, high feed		188	181	177	169	175
NEAR EAST IN ASIA
Medium	52 (51)	56	59	60	67	71
High		49	49	48	52	53
Low		63	73	79	88	93
Medium, low feed		51	54	54	58	60
Medium, high feed		57	62	67	77	81
NORTH AFRICA
Medium	26 (25)	25	24	25	26	26
High		19	17	16	18	19
Low		30	34	37	39	38
Medium, low feed		24	22	21	23	24
Medium, high feed		26	26	28	30	29
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Medium	211 (213)	229	255	257	223	227
High		204	211	196	164	173
Low		255	303	341	314	313
Medium, low feed		227	253	254	220	223
Medium, high feed		232	265	283	250	257
LATIN AMERICA
Medium	183 (190)	209	210	206	199	208
High		183	173	154	154	157
Low		234	250	266	260	268
Medium, low feed		203	202	193	185	192
Medium, high feed		211	217	221	214	225

^a The data in parentheses is the adjusted arable area used in AT2010.
^b For China base year estimates of yields and harvested areas are not made in AT2010.

Appendix 22

NET TRADE (IN MILLION TONS PER YEAR) OF DIFFERENT COMMODITY GROUPS FOR DEVELOPING REGIONS. NEGATIVE NUMBERS INDICATE NET IMPORTS, POSITIVE NUMBERS NET EXPORTS. SUGAR IS EXPRESSED IN SUGAR EQUIVALENTS, OIL CROPS IN OIL EQUIVALENTS. CEREALS INCLUDE MILLED RICE

FAO LAND AND WATER BULLETINS

1. Land and water integration and river basin management, 1995 (E)
2. Planning for sustainable use of land resources -Towards a new approach, 1995 (E)
3. Water sector policy review and strategy formulation -A general framework, 1995 (E)
4. Irrigation potential in Africa -A basin approach, 1997(E)
5. Land quality indicators and their use in sustainable agriculture and rural development, 1997 (E)
6. Long-term scenarios of livestock-crop-land use interactions in developing countries, 1997 (E)

Availability: May 1997

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Interactions among livestock, crops and land use under intensified agricultural production can contribute to increased emission of a number of atmospheric pollutants. This bulletin presents various long-term scenarios of livestock-crop-land use interactions and their possible effects on greenhouse warming as well as the environmental effects related to crop and animal waste production. It describes the possible future magnitude of problems related to the use of animal feedstuffs and inputs of nutrients and will therefore be of interest to fertilizer specialists, agronomists and professionals dealing with rural environmental protection.