Aggregate output of recently harvested wheat and barley is unofficially estimated at 1.9 million tons, similar to last year's below-normal harvest. Output continued to be constrained by short supplies of agricultural inputs and insecurity. Some damage to foodcrops has also been caused by widespread flooding which affected the provinces of Badakshan, Fariab, Zabul, Helmnd, Nimroz, Farah and Herat.
Due to constant devaluation in currency and declining purchasing power, food prices in the country, particularly in Kabul, are increasing. This has caused severe suffering to most ordinary people.
Donors' response to the United Nations Inter-Agency Appeal for U.S.$ 124 million for Emergency Humanitarian and Rehabilitation Assistance, launched in October 1995, has been disappointing so far. The Appeal is targeted at four major crisis areas: emergencies in urban and rural areas, the internally displaced and refugees returning from neighbouring countries and covers the period October 1995 to September 1996.
The import requirement for cereals in 1996/97, mostly wheat, is estimated at 1.5 million tons. Cereal food aid deliveries for 1995/96 amount to 206 000 tons.
Floods caused by heavy monsoon rains in early July, devastated almost a quarter of the country, affected around a million people and damaged or destroyed some 15 000 thousands hectares of crops. Jamalpur district in the northeast, was the worst affected with 200 000 people stranded, 8 000 hectares of paddy damaged and considerable loss of property. Other districts that were affected include Bogra, Sylhet, Habiganj, Cox�s Bazar, Khagrachari and Manikganj. Subsequent floods in mid July caused further damage to some 20 000 hectares of paddy and jute and stranded 100 000 people. By the beginning of August, there had been a marked improvement in the flood situation, throughout the country with significant reduction in water to below danger levels in the Brahmaputra and Ganges. Latest estimates of flood damage amount to 38 districts and 5.7 million people affected, 33 deaths, 52 000 hectares of crops destroyed and 175 000 hectares damaged. Relief assistance is being provided by the Ministry of Relief Disaster Management and as yet no international appeal has been made by the Government. The floods come in the aftermath of a tornado in May, which affected some 16 000 families, resulted in 500 deaths and damaged or destroyed several thousand hectares of boro paddy. Last year, nearly 250 people were killed and about 1.5 million displaced by floods.
Harvesting of the rainfed 'Aus' rice crop, which normally accounts for some 10 percent of production, is about to commence. The target for the crop is around 1.8 million tons. Output of the recently harvested �Boro� crop is estimated at 7.25 million tons, some 3 percent higher than earlier estimated and slightly above target. Boro paddy normally accounts for almost 40 percent of aggregate rice production. Aggregate cereal production for 1995/96 is estimated at some 28 million tons, about average though some 5 percent above the previous year
As a result of improved production and procurement in 1995/96 and higher imports, the overall food supply situation is considered to be satisfactory. As at the end of June, Government had some one million tons of cereals in stock, including 391 000 tons of wheat and 608 000 tons of rice.
Planting of medium and late varieties of the main �wet� season paddy crop, for harvest later in the year, is underway, under generally favourable conditions. Earlier, abundant rainfall in May benefited conditions for land preparation and planting of early varieties in June. The quantity and distribution of rainfall between now and November, will be a key determinant of overall production. In 1995 the country had a bumper wet season harvest of some 2.8 million tons of paddy, mainly as a result of adequate and well distributed rainfall and improved fertilizer supply.
The official estimate of total paddy production in 1995/96 amounts to some 3.5 million tons, significantly higher than average and output in the previous year. As a result the country has a national rice surplus for 1996. Although the Government had expressed plans to export some of the surplus, an FAO/WFP mission, earlier in the year, advised against such moves, mainly because food deficit areas of the country and/or the lack of purchasing power in segments of the population would restrict access to food supply for many people, who in turn would require assistance.
Heavy rainfall and typhoons since late June/early July, caused extensive flooding which devastated large parts of the country. By the end of June, widespread torrential rains amounting to between 200 and 300mm, had already elevated water levels considerably in the Yangtze River and raised moisture levels in the river basin. Intense rainfall continued well into July, made worse by typhoons Frankie and Gloria in the extreme south and in the southeast. As a result, by the end of the second dekad of July large areas of the country had received between 100 and 650mm of rainfall above normal, resulting in severe flooding along the Yangtze River. Although in the last dekad of July rainfall activity subsided, easing the flood situation somewhat, Typhoon Herb at the beginning of August caused further flooding, resulting in damage to crops and property in Fujinan Province on the east coast. Earlier the Typhoon had caused substantial damage in Taiwan, officially estimated at some T $ 19.8 billion. In the first half of August, a resurgence of flooding in southeastern parts of the country, resulted in renewed damage and loss of life. Latest estimates, put the number of people affected by the renewed flooding at over 100 000 and the number killed at 233..
Latest estimates indicate that the flood damage affected some 125 million people and resulted in over 2 300 deaths. In addition property, infrastructure and communication systems were extensively damaged, resulting in large numbers of people being made homeless without access to food and medical supplies. The floods were centred mainly on important rice producing areas in central and southern parts of the country, where an estimated 8.9 million hectares were affected and 1.04 million hectares destroyed. Most of the damage occurred in the provinces of Hubei, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Hunan and Guangxi. Together, these eight provinces contribute some 63 percent to total annual rice production in the country, with Hunan and Jiangsu being relatively more important, with a contribution of between 23 and 25 percent. Unconfirmed reports put the amount of rice lost in the floods at 5 million tons, whilst overall economic damage is estimated at around $12.6 billion. In addition to rice, the rapeseed crop in Anhui and Guizhou was also damaged as were some crops in storage.
The overall food supply situation in the country is satisfactory, as a result of record grain production last year and adequate cereal stocks at national and household levels. Moreover, the floods did not affect important crop areas in the north and the harvest of summer crops, estimated at a bumper 110 million tons. There is also official optimism that the floods will have little impact on domestic rice supplies and overall grain production in 1996, which is presently projected at a record 465 to 471 million tons. Acreage under grains is reported to have expanded by one percent this year. Livestock production is also reported to be substantially higher this year than last.
From January to May 1996, official figures indicate that China imported 310 000 ton of rice, compared to 980 000 in the same period in 1995. Overall, the country imported a total of 1.64 million tons of rice in 1995, compared to 510 000 in 1994.
The harvesting of the 1996 wheat and barley crops is near completion. Aggregate production is estimated at 131 000 tons, some 9 000 tons less than last year's below-average harvest.
Imports of wheat in 1996/97 (May/April), are estimated to be unchanged at 90 000 tons, while aggregate imports of barley and maize, exclusively used for animal feeding, are estimated at some 410 000 tons, 20 000 tons more than in the previous year.
Torrential monsoon rains in July over central and north eastern parts of the country, caused serious flooding. Latest estimates indicate that overall 2.4 million people were affected, with some 900 people and 15 000 livestock killed. Around 3.3 million hectares of crop area were affected and 600 000 hectares severely damaged. Most of the crop damage was sustained in Uttar Pradesh, Assam and West Bengal. Overall, the 1996 monsoon began on time and progressed more or less on schedule, bringing beneficial moisture to most southern and eastern parts and providing favourable planting conditions for the 1996/97 paddy, coarse grains and pluses crops in most states. However, in mid-June, two cyclones brought heavy rain and local flooding to western, northern, and eastern parts. As a result, most of the region received near- to much-above-normal rainfall for the month, providing adequate to abundant soil moisture for crops. The notable exceptions, were east and west Madhya Pradesh where deficient rainfall affected planting of the coarse grain and soya bean crop. In July showers across central and southern parts, favoured planting of oilseed, coarse grains and cotton. While the moisture was beneficial, it nevertheless was somewhat below normal for mid-July. The ideal planting time for kharif crops is between mid June and mid-July. By mid-August the country had received a satisfactory monsoon, with 31 out of the 35 sub-divisions monitored having received normal or above-normal cumulative rainfall.
The estimate for 1995/96 food grain production (milled equivalent) has been officially revised down to 190.4 million tons, compared to an earlier forecast of 192.6 million tons and production of 191.1 million tons in 1994/95. The downward revision is largely attributed to lower wheat production than forecast earlier: from some 66 million tons to 64 million tons.
Total wheat procurement for the 1996/97 marketing year (April/March) was some 8.2 million tons, the lowest since 1992, over 4 million tons below the level expected and well below the 12.3 million tons procured in 1995/96. The drop in procurement is attributed to increased purchases by private traders. The total food stock held by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) at the beginning of July was 22.7 million tons, 13 million tons below the same period in 1995, although 50 percent above the normal buffer requirement of 15 million tons at this time of year. The quota for 1996/97 wheat exports from open sales through FCI is 500 000 tons, whilst the export price has been revised to $139.7 per ton from $125.7 per ton.
An earthquake measuring 6.6 on the Richter scale hit the island of Sulawesi in late July, though no casualties nor crop damage was reported. Elsewhere, in July showers over Java increased moisture supplies for second-season rice in the west, while dry weather prevailed in the east. On the whole Java has received below-normal rainfall, and official reports indicate that some 6 600 hectares of paddy had been damaged by drought by the end of June, whilst water levels in major irrigation reservoirs had dropped dramatically. The worst affected regencies include Boyolali, Pati, Sragen, Wonogiri, Sukoharjo, Rembang, Blora, Semarang, Grobogan and Banjarnegara.
Aggregate paddy production in 1996 is currently forecast at around 50 million tons, some 3 percent higher than last year and 6 percent above average for the preceding five years. Higher rice production is attributed to various factors including intensive farming methods, irrigation and area expansion. Despite advances in production, however, domestic supply lags demand and the country has needed to import rice to meet requirement. It is officially estimated that the value of rice imports into the country in the last five years have increased substantially from $53 million in 1991 to $514 in 1995. During this time, the increase in value of imports averaged 56 percent whilst volume increased by around 61 percent. The Government plans to increase its self sufficiency in maize by expanding the area under cultivation by 500 000 hectares in 1996/97. Maize production increased to 8.2 million tons in 1995, compared to 6.9 million tons in the previous year.
The procurement target for rice in 1996/97 (April/March) by BULOG, the national marketing agency, is 2 million tons. Current rice stocks held by BULOG are estimated at 2.7 million tons, up from 2 million tons in March. Rice procurement is still underway and it is expected that stocks will reach around 3 million tons by September. Wheat imports are also expected to increase in response to rapid growth in food industries, higher per capita incomes and growth in demand for wheat based products. Wheat imports in 1994/95 amounted to 3.6 million tons, whilst imports in 1995/96 are estimated at 4.0 million tons.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (12 August)
In the first week of July flash floods affected 153 villages in 14 counties, including Tabriz, Mianeh, Marand, Maragheh, Djulfa, Bostanabad, Shabestar, Kalibar, Maco, Khoy and Oromiych. Latest reports indicate that 22 people died, 3 500 livestock were lost and 9 000 hectares of farm land damaged or destroyed. Total economic loss is estimated at around $9 million. Relief assistance is being provided by a Disaster Task Force and the Iranian Red Crescent and includes the provision of 8 tons of food, 480 tents and 200 stove heaters. No international appeal has been made by the Government.
The production of recently harvested wheat is estimated at 11 million tons, some 6 percent above average for the preceding five years, though some 200 000 tons below 1995. This is partly attributed to a slight reduction in the area planted.
Wheat imports in 1996/97 are likely to be slightly higher than last year, despite above normal wheat production.
As envisaged in the Memorandum of Understanding signed by Iraq and the United Nations on 20 May 1996, regarding the implementation of the United Nations Council's Resolution which permits limited sales of oil, the Government of Iraq has prepared a Distribution Plan which delineates in detail the procedures for ensuring equitable distribution of food, medicines, health supplies and other humanitarian relief. The Plan was approved by the UN Secretary-General on 17 July and adopted by the UN Security Council�s Sanctions Committee on 8 August. The Distribution Plan calls for the allocation of U.S.$ 805 million for food distribution. Under the plan the monthly flour ration will increase by 2 kg to 9 kg, the amount of rice will double to 2.5 kg, sugar will be increased from 0.5 kg to 2 kg and cooking oil by 250 gm to 1 kg. These new monthly food rations will ensure a daily energy intake of 2 030 Kcal and 47 gm of protein per person per day.
The "oil-for-food" agreement, which is subject to renewal, permits the sale, under certain conditions, of U.S.$ 2 billion of oil over six months to raise money for purchasing various humanitarian needs. The oil sale and distribution of humanitarian supplies will be conducted under strict UN supervision including the monitoring of all aspects of the agreement and special provision for food distribution in the three northern Governorates of Arbil, Dohouk and Suleimaniyeh. It is estimated that Iraq will be allowed to sell 750 000 to 800 000 barrels of oil per day. However, this amount will fluctuate according to international oil prices. Before the Gulf War Iraq used to pump more than 3 million barrels per day.
The UN Security Council Resolution No. 986 imposes substantial deductions from the revenue of the oil sale of U.S.$ 2 billion for war reparations, humanitarian programmes in the three northern Governorates and other UN costs, including those for the maintenance of the special commission for the elimination of weapons of mass destruction.
The implementation of the agreement will undoubtedly reduce food shortages and improve the nutritional and health situation of the affected population. It will also regenerate some economic activity, result in a decrease in exorbitant food prices and an appreciation of the Dinar against hard currencies.
The output of wheat and barley in 1996 is again expected to be below normal as a result of damage from pests and short supply of agricultural inputs such as quality seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides, as well as lack of spare parts for agricultural machinery.
Food aid requirements in 1996/97(April/March) for the 2.15 million beneficiaries targeted by WFP is estimated at 321 000 tons. Carryover pledges and new allocations total 64 000 tons, leaving a shortfall equivalent to 80 percent of the estimated needs.
The output from the recently harvested 1996 wheat crop, estimated at 150 000 tons, was lower than both last year and average due to unfavourable weather.
Output of cereals in 1995, mostly wheat, is estimated at the below-normal level of some 190 000 tons.
Following the implementation of the Gatt-Uruguay Round Agreement the Government has decided to allow flour mills to import wheat from any origin.
Cereal imports in 1996/97 (October/September) are estimated at about 2.1 million tons, virtually unchanged from the previous year.
In July growing conditions for rice were generally unfavourable in the north, due to insufficient sunshine in June and relatively low temperatures in early July. In addition Typhoon Eve, brought heavy rainfall which damaged some of the rice crop in Kyushu island. Elsewhere, crop conditions were mostly reported to be normal. In late July/early August, weather conditions were mostly dry, except for light to moderate rains in central Honshu. Temperatures averaged between 1-3 degrees celsius above normal across the country.
Early outlook indicates that overall planting will be below average, for the preceding five years and lower than the 2.12 million hectares planted last year. Output is provisionally projected to be somewhat lower than the 13.4 million tons harvested in 1995. Reports indicate that domestic rice stocks are forecast to stand at 2.7 million tons at the end of the crop year in October 1996.
Good rains at the end of the rainy season improved somewhat the condition of the wheat and barley crops previously stressed by inadequate precipitation. However, because of higher than normal temperature in April and May in the high lands, some wheat and barley fields producing a poor crop were left unharvested for animal grazing.
The aggregate output from the wheat and barley crops in 1996 is estimated at some 90 000 tons, 20 percent less than both last year and average. The producer prices for the 1996 wheat and barley, announced after the sowing of the crops, were increased by more than 20 percent. The wheat price was increased by JD 35 (U.S.$ 49) to JD 200 (U.S.$ 282) per ton while barley price was raised by 23 percent to JD 160 (U.S.$ 226) per ton. Lentils and chick peas prices were also increased by about 12 percent to JD 380 (U.S.$ 537) per ton and JD 450 (U.S.$ 636) per ton, respectively.
Recently, the Government has announced increases in the prices of bread. The prices of the two qualities of bread widely consumed have been set at Fils 180 (U.S. cents 25) and Fils 220 (U.S. cents 31) per kg from Fils 85 (U.S. cents 12) and Fils 120 (U.S. cents 17) respectively.
Despite a Government decision to compensate the poor through cash handouts under a scheme previously approved, the increase in bread prices resulted in civil unrest in the south of the country and in a poor central district of the capital.
Government subsidized livestock inputs (mainly barley and wheat bran) are insufficient and livestock producers have to rely on purchases of feed concentrates. This will result in higher cost of production and may lead to a drop in livestock population.
Imports of wheat in 1996/97 (July/June) are estimated at 0.63 million tons, lower than the previous year. Coarse grains imports, maize and barley, are estimated at 0.91 million tons, some 60 000 tons more than imports in 1995/96. Imports of rice are expected at about 95 000 tons, somewhat higher than the previous year.
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (12 August)
Torrential rainfall over a short four day period between the 24 and 28 July over parts of the Peninsula, caused severe flooding in central parts of the country. Latest reports indicate that some 31 000 people were affected, 53 had died and 18 were missing. The worst affected provinces were Kyonggi and Kangwon, which may be subject to further rainfall and flooding. It is estimated that in the two provinces, some 15 000 hectares of farmland have been inundated in addition to losses in property, communications and infrastructure. Reports indicate that large amounts of rainfall were received in various counties; Chorwon 524mm, Kanghwa 422mm, Chunchon 298, Seoul 289mm and Inje 266mm. A state of emergency was declared in Yonchon county, where efforts were being made to evacuate 20 800 people. The rainfall and flood damage is considered to be the worst since Typhoon Thelma in 1987, which left 334 people dead or missing and resulted in 201 billion won in property damage.
The target for paddy production in 1996 has provisionally been set at 6.6 million tons from 1.05 million hectares. It is estimated that the area under rice cultivation, has declined by 15 percent since 1990. In an effort to offset future decline in area cultivated and increase the level of self sufficiency in rice, the government plans to increase investment by more than 40 percent. The aim is to raise target yields, develop water resources, improve agricultural infrastructure and mechanization.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (29
August)
A recent on-the-spot review by FAO and WFP has just been
completed to evaluate the effects of high intensity rainfall
and floods, which occurred in the last week of July 1996, on
crop production and food supply. In the five days between 24
and 28 July 1996, southern parts of the country received an
average of 800mm of intensive rainfall, resulting in serious
flooding and extensive damage to agriculture, property and
infrastructure. The rainfall and resultant damage occurred
most extensively in North and South Hwanghae Provinces,
Kangwon Province and Kaesong Municipality. In addition,
though much less extreme, agricultural areas close to the
capital Pyongyang also sustained some damage to crops.
Records indicate that during the five day period, South
Hwanghae received 910mm of rainfall, North Hwanghae 830mm and
Kaesong Municipality 630mm, compared to 230mm, 310mm and
130mm respectively, which would be expected during the same
period in average years..
In general, the south/southwest produces roughly 60 percent
of the country�s food grain, with the remainder coming
principally from the northwest and the provinces of North and
South Pyongan. It is estimated that 7 out of a total of 20
counties were seriously affected in South Hwanghae Province,
whilst in North Hwanghae, the ratio was 8 out of 17.
As a result of extensive flooding a large proportion of low-
lying areas in affected parts, remained submerged under water
for periods up to 5 days during and in the aftermath of the
rains. The extent and duration of submergence, was by far
the principal cause of crop loss, though to a much lesser
extent losses also occurred due to crops being washed away
and to being covered by sand deposits, mostly in areas
adjacent to rivers and canals. Submergence in itself need not
have resulted in heavy losses had the crops been either more
advanced or, alternatively, less advanced in the crop cycle.
Both paddy, the main crop affected, and maize, however, were
at a critical stage in development at which they were most
susceptible to adverse conditions.
Based on field observations, it is provisionally estimated
that 360 000 tons of paddy will be lost this year and 92 000
tons of maize due to the floods. Using a conversion factor of
78 percent for paddy to rice for Japonica varieties (IRRI),
total loss in cereal availability for 1996/97, is tentatively
projected at around 373 000 tons. However the full extent of
losses and the consequent ramifications for food supply next
year will depend significantly on possible crop recovery in
affected areas and weather conditions between now and harvest
in October.
In view of mounting food supply difficulties in recent years,
especially since the floods in 1995, rationing, through the
Public Distribution System (PDS) has been revised down
significantly. As a result, rations are now considerably
below historic levels and for a large proportion of the
population well below minimum quantities required for healthy
survival. In addition, of an estimated 5 million people on
collective farms, who were formerly not entitled to PDS
cereal rations, more and more have had to be progressively
absorbed into the system, in the aftermath of the reduced
harvest in 1995. Some, as far back as last November and
others at various times this year, as household stocks became
depleted. Consequently, by May this year, the majority of
collective farm workers had also effectively become dependent
on the PDS. Those that had not, were in areas not affected by
the 1995 floods.
In response to supply difficulties, the Government has
gradually lowered off-take through the PDS to an estimated
210 000 tons/month in recent months. At the reduced level,
it is estimated that about half the population, mostly from
non essential/non manual sectors, would be entitled to
receive a cereal ration of approximately 6 kg/month or 200
grams/day. This is considerably lower than an acceptable
minimum required. Moreover, as the supply channel is now
entirely dependent on imports, it is likely that even this
reduced off take has not been consistently maintained and
rations are only provided, irregularly, when and if imports
arrive.
As food supply difficulties have become more manifest,
various counter measures have been implemented. In late
May/early June at the time of harvest , potatoes were
introduced into the PDS for the first time to supplement
rations. As only a limited area is cultivated, some 35 000
hectares, supplies would have amounted to around 525 000 tons
of potatoes or 131 000 tons in grain equivalent. Potatoes are
not considered a staple and are normally utilized for
industrial purposes. Nonetheless, it is estimated that they
formed an important component of the diet for a period of six
weeks from the beginning of June to the early part of July.
In addition, at the beginning of August a part of the maize
crop was harvested early and channeled into the PDS as
cobs/green maize. This, being a stop gap measure to ease
current pressure, will obviously reduce availability at
harvest
Grain use for livestock and other uses has been dramatically
cut and it is currently estimated that only core breeding
stock are being retained with large numbers of animals,
either traded, released to households for tending or culled.
Although the full extent of this reduction is not known,
estimates range from 30 to 90 percent.
The Government has also authorized all provinces and counties
to barter products directly with neighbouring countries,
especially China, for food. Products that have been bartered,
included fish/shellfish, scrap metal, marble and timber, the
logging of which are believed to have seriously accentuated
problems of deforestation and erosion. Provinces and counties
have also been allowed to utilize financial reserves held
locally for food purchases, mostly wheat flour. It is
estimated that imports through this system of trade, have
amounted to approximately 250 000 tons since the beginning of
1996. Areas of the country that have been successful in
importing food in this way, are excluded from central
allocation for the duration imported quantities are expected
to last.
Although the Government is seriously constrained in making
commercial imports financially, it has been successful in
securing supplies through barter with some countries. The
main commodities bartered include cement, steel and gold. It
has also intensified attempts to secure food supplies
through bilateral grant aid or on the basis of deferred
payment. Since the beginning of the 1995/96 marketing year in
November, it is estimated that pledges and deliveries of
these imports, classified as programme food aid, amount to
around 523 000 tons of grain.
By early September 1996, food aid through the UN-system will
have amounted to around 46 500 tons of cereals and 6 000 tons
of blended food, mainly CBS. Additional donations from non-
governmental organizations, notably CARITAS and IFRC, will
amount to approximately 28 800 tons of grain and 1 600 tons
of non-grain products. In total these sources, therefore,
will have provided some 75 300 tons of cereals and 7 600 tons
of non cereals in food assistance.
In relation to an import requirement of 1.47 million tons
for 1995/96, identified in the last FAO/WFP Special Alert No
267 of May this year, the quantity of bartered food imports,
programme and emergency food (grain) aid provided or pledged
so far, amounts to 848 300 tons or roughly 58 percent of
requirement.
Planting of the main rice crop for harvest in
November/December is well underway, under generally
favourable weather conditions. The target for aggregate paddy
production in 1996 is 1.7 million tons, which would be
considerably above average and some 20 percent higher than
the flood affected crop last year. Although aggregate paddy
production in 1995, estimated at 1.4 million tons, was about
average for the preceding five years, it was 15 percent below
the previous year's bumper harvest of 1.65 million tons. The
reduction was attributed to serious floods last July/August,
which destroyed some 62 000 hectares of paddy in six
provinces, four of which faced serious food shortages. As a
result, the cereal import requirement for 1996 was estimated
at some 133 000 tons, of which 38 000 tons were needed as
emergency food assistance for 374 000 people for varying
periods of 6 months to a year. So far, 13 800 tons have been
pledged, meeting fully a WFP appeal for assistance for the
most urgent cases. In addition, a joint appeal with the
Government increased donor pledges for a further 15 000 tons.
The harvesting of 1996 wheat and barley is over and aggregate
output, estimated at 67 000 tons, is slightly below-normal.
Domestic cereal production in normal years covers about 10
percent of total requirement and more than 750 000 tons of
cereals, mostly wheat, have to be imported.
Imports of cereals in 1996/97 (July/June) is forecast at
some 0.76 million tons, an increase of about 5 000 tons
compared with the previous year.
While the emergency phase resulting from the events in early
April in southern areas is over, humanitarian assistance is
still needed by thousands of internally displaced people.
Lack of adequate water supply continues to affect several
villages.
An assessment of the damage to the agricultural sector
confirms that farmers sustained considerable losses in
affected areas. This calls for a need for the identification
and formulation of a socio-economic rehabilitation programme
in southern areas.
The response to the United Nations Flash Appeal for
internally displaced persons was satisfactory. Pledges total
more than U.S.$ 13 million.
The country received variable rainfall in June. Harvesting of
the second rice crop, which accounts for some 45 percent of
annual output, is underway. The aggregate production target
for paddy in 1996 is set at 2.1 million tons, slightly higher
than average for the preceding five years. The preliminary
estimate for aggregate cereal production (including milled
rice) in 1996/97 is 1.4 million tons and cereal imports
around 4 million tons, of maize, wheat and rice. In June
shortages of wheat flour, forced the Government to increase
the control price by 30 cents to 1.1 ringgit/Kg (44 US
cents). Recent imports, however, are likely to ease the
situation. In another development, it has been reported that
China has agreed in principle to barter wheat for palm oil
from the country.