Prospects are favourable for the bulk of the 1996 wheat and coarse grain crops. Official estimates indicate increases of 15 percent in planted area for both wheat and barley, and 33 percent for oats compared to a year ago. In addition, soil moisture reserves are reported to be sufficient throughout Canada, with the exception of the southwestern region of the Prairies, to sustain good development of spring crops until harvest, and above average yields are expected. Based on these planting estimates, and favourable yield indications, aggregate output of wheat is forecast to increase by about 8 percent in 1996, to some 27.5 million tons, while that for coarse grains is put at almost 27 million tons, 11 percent up from last year. Furthermore, an even larger increases in production than currently forecast is possible if hot and dry weather prevails until harvest.
The 1996 winter wheat harvest is virtually complete and for spring wheat the harvest is well underway although somewhat behind normal due to late plantings. Following generally favourable conditions for the winter wheat harvest and spring wheat development, official estimates for wheat production have been increased significantly over the last two months. Winter wheat production is now estimated at 40.7 million tons, up from previous forecasts but still some 1.5 million tons less than last year�s. By contrast spring wheat output is now forecast to increase significantly from 1995 to about 20.5 million tons (1995: 17.4 million tons), more than offsetting the decline in winter wheat production.
Prospects for the 1996 coarse grain crop have deteriorated somewhat over the past two months but output is still set to increase greatly from 1995�s reduced crop. The USDA�s first survey-based forecast (based on 1 August conditions) put aggregate coarse grain production at 250.7 million tons. Production of the major coarse grain crop, maize, is now forecast at 220.9 million tons, down 5 percent from earlier projections but still 18 percent up from last year. Maize plantings are estimated to have increased to some 32 million hectares, the largest area since 1985. The latest USDA report forecast maize yield at 7.45 tons per hectare, up from 7.12 tons per hectare in the previous year. However, although, July weather was very favourable for pollination over most of the Corn Belt, many crops were late planted and development has been slowed by lack of heat this summer. As of 18 August, 37 percent of the crop was reported to be in the dough stage of development, 6 percent less than a year ago at the same time and 18 percent less than the average for this time of the season. Thus, the final outcome will still depend largely on the weather in the remainder of August through early October.