• Cassava production slightly higher in 1997
• Demand on the rise
• Modest increase in cassava trade in 1997
• Cassava pellets prices reached their lowest level
• Production and trade outlook uncertain for 1998

In Asia, cassava output in 1997 is forecast at 48.5 million tons, slightly above last year. Among the major producing countries of the region, output in Thailand is forecast at 18.1 million tons, or 4 percent above 1996, while that in Indonesia, at 17.2 million tons, would be 1 percent higher mainly reflecting favourable climatic conditions. By contrast, in Vietnam, output is expected to be marginally lower than in the previous year as traditional cassava plantings have been reduced in favour of more remunerative crops such as rice and maize. However, new cassava growing areas (former waste lands) in the south are being brought under intensive cultivation using new higher yielding varieties with a high starch content, reflecting the strong interest of the starch-industries. No significant changes in output are anticipated for other countries in the region.

WORLD CASSAVA PRODUCTION 1/

	1995	1996	1997  prelim.
	(. . . . . . million tons . . . . . .)
WORLD	165.3	162.0	164.1
Africa	84.7	82.1	83.0
Congo Dem. Rep.	18.9	16.8	16.8
Ghana	6.6	7.1	7.1
Madagascar	2.4	2.4	2.4
Mozambique	4.2	4.7	5.3
Nigeria	31.4	31.4	31.4
Tanzania	6.0	4.3	4.4
Uganda	2.2	2.2	2.3
Asia	48.2	47.7	48.5
China	3.5	3.5	3.5
India	6.0	4.7	4.7
Indonesia	15.4	17.0	17.2
Philippines	1.9	1.9	1.9
Thailand	18.2	17.4	18.1
Viet Nam	2.2	2.2	2.1
Latin America and Caribbean	32.2	32.1	32.4
Brazil	25.3	24.9	25.4
Colombia	1.8	2.0	1.8
Paraguay	2.7	2.6	2.6

SOURCE: FAO
1/ In fresh roots.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the 1997 cassava output is forecast at 32.4 million tons, virtually unchanged from last year. In Brazil, the world’s second largest producer and processor, output in 1997 is anticipated to reach 25.4 million tons, or 2 percent above 1996, reflecting a slight increase in area. In Paraguay, output is expected to be close to the 1996 level reflecting increased competition from other crops, delays in the application of new technologies and limited support from the Government. Modest increases are forecast for Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Peru. However, production is expected to fall in a number of countries such as Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, mainly reflecting reduced area under cultivation and drought in some countries.

In Asia, particularly in China, Vietnam, and Thailand, usage of cassava in feed, alcohol and starch production is expected to expand in 1997. In China and Vietnam, on-farm chipping and drying for animal feed use is estimated to be particularly strong and to employ 40-60 percent of total supply. In Thailand, the largest cassava pellet producer and exporter, the share of cassava roots converted into starch has increased sharply in view of strong demand for starch and the government policy to promote starch production, part of which comes from the cassava pellet industry. Out of 18.1 million tons of cassava roots expected to be produced this year, about 10 million tons would be converted to chips and pellets and 8 million tons would be used to produce cassava starch, half of which is for domestic consumption and half for export.

In most countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, the crop is evolving from a traditional staple to a market oriented raw material for the manufacture of food products, livestock feed and industrial products. Cassava chips and drying industries are growing in many countries such as Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador. For instance, in the north eastern region of Brazil, consumption of farina de mandioca has increased because of the substitution of cassava flour as a cheaper and partial substitute for higher priced wheat flour in bakery products and in fermentation industries. Similarly, the usage of sour starch is growing in line with its increasing applications in snack foods and bakery industries.

In the developed countries, particularly in the EC, cassava utilisation in 1997 for animal feed is forecast to remain close to previous year’s level, as the demand for feed ingredients resulting from an earlier expected expansion in livestock has been tempered by the occurrence of swine fever disease that lowered pig production in Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain following the slaughter programmes in the first part of the year.

WORLD TRADE IN CASSAVA 1/

	1995	1996	1997  prelim.
	(. . . . . . million tons . . . . . .)
World Exports	5.2	5.8	6.0
Thailand	3.9	4.6	4.8
Indonesia	0.5	0.4	0.4
China 2/	0.4	0.4	0.4
Others	0.4	0.4	0.4
World Imports	5.2	5.8	6.0
EC 3/	3.3	3.5	3.5
China 2/	0.5	0.3	0.3
Japan	0.3	0.3	0.4
Korea. Rep. of	0.2	0.6	0.6
Others	0.9	1.1	1.2

SOURCE: FAO
1/ In product weight of chips and pellets. including starch and flour.
2/ Including Taiwan Province.
3/ Excluding trade between EC members.

Thailand and Indonesia continued to be the main suppliers to the world market with market shares of 80 percent and 10 percent respectively. Total shipments of cassava dry products from Thailand in 1997 are currently forecast at 4.8 million tons, or 4 percent above last year, with exports of chips and pellets alone amounting to 3.8 million tons. However, total export volume would be less than Thailand’s 5.25 million ton annual quota to the EC. Because of this, there was no need in 1997 to apply the stock-check system, under which the Thai government granted licences for exports of tapioca chips and pellets to the EC taking into account stock holding and past performance of the individual exporters. This change reduced costs associated with holding stocks and encouraged competition among exporters of tapioca chips, pellets and flours.

Between January and August of this year, a total of 2.6 million tons of chips and pellets has been shipped from Thailand, of which 2.2 million tons went to the Community, mainly to the Netherlands (partly for trans-shipment), Portugal, Spain, Germany and Belgium. The latter two countries had suspended all purchases since 1994, but bought nearly 50 000 tons of chips and pellets in the first eight months of 1997. Another 400 000 tons were exported to non-EC countries including China, Israel, Japan, Republic of Korea, the Philippines, Poland, Turkey and the Province of Taiwan.

Despite good crop prospects, foreign sales by Indonesia are not expected to be higher than in 1996 due to strong domestic demand; in fact, out of the 866 000 tons quota to the EC, only 97 500 tons had been shipped in the first nine months of 1997; China is also unlikely to reach its quota of some 367 000 tons to the EC, while Vietnam is expected to ship around 80 percent of its 30 000 tons quota. Other exporters in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean are anticipated to ship some 400 000 tons in total.