Table 1: Production growth in developing countries, 1975-99.
|
|
(by volume) |
|
Cereals |
2.6 |
|
Fruit |
3.5 |
|
Vegetables |
4.8 |
|
Fish |
5.5 |
|
Pork |
6.3 |
|
Poultry |
7.7 |
Source: Calculated from data in FAO Statistics Database (http:FAOSTAT.FAO.ORG/default.htm).
Table 2. Food consumption of meat and milk by region, 1982/84 and 1996/98.
|
Region |
Total Meat Consumption |
Total Milk Consumption |
|||
|
1983 |
1997 |
1983 |
1997 |
||
|
(million MT) |
(million MT) |
||||
|
China |
16 |
53 |
3 |
10 |
|
|
India |
3 |
4 |
34 |
60 |
|
|
Other East Asia |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Other South Asia |
1 |
3 |
11 |
21 |
|
|
Southeast Asia |
4 |
9 |
4 |
6 |
|
|
Latin America |
15 |
26 |
35 |
54 |
|
| |
of which Brazil |
|
11 |
|
20 |
|
WANA |
5 |
7 |
21 |
25 |
|
|
Sub-Saharan Africa |
4 |
6 |
12 |
17 |
|
|
Developing world |
50 |
112 |
122 |
198 |
|
|
Developed world |
88 |
99 |
233 |
254 |
|
|
World |
138 |
211 |
355 |
452 |
|
Source: Calculated from data in FAO Statistics Database (http:FAOSTAT.FAO.ORG/default.htm).
Notes: Data are three year averages centered on year shown.
"Consumption" is direct use as food, uncooked weight bone-in. "Meat" includes beef, pork, mutton and goat, and poultry. "Milk" is milk and milk products in liquid milk equivalents. Metric tons and kilograms are three year moving averages centered on the year shown. WANA is Western Asia and North Africa. See note in Table 3 concerning total demand for milk.
Table 3. Food consumption trends of various livestock products 1982/84 and 1996/98.
|
Region |
Total Consumption |
% of World Total |
Per Capita Consumption |
|||
|
1983 |
1997 |
1997 |
1983 |
1997 |
||
|
(million MT) |
|
(kg) |
||||
|
Developed world |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Beef |
32 |
30 |
52 |
27 |
23 |
| |
Pork |
34 |
36 |
44 |
29 |
28 |
| |
Poultry |
19 |
28 |
49 |
16 |
22 |
| |
Meat |
88 |
99 |
47 |
74 |
76 |
| |
Milk |
233 |
254 |
56 |
195 |
195 |
|
Developing world |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Beef |
16 |
27 |
47 |
5 |
6 |
| |
Pork |
20 |
46 |
57 |
6 |
10 |
| |
Poultry |
10 |
29 |
51 |
3 |
7 |
| |
Meat |
50 |
112 |
53 |
14 |
25 |
| |
Milk |
122 |
198 |
44 |
35 |
44 |
Source: Calculated from data in FAO Statistics Database (http:FAOSTAT.FAO.ORG/default.htm).
Notes: Data are three year averages centered on year shown.
"Consumption" is direct use as food, uncooked weight bone-in. "Meat" includes beef, pork, mutton and goat, and poultry. "Milk" is milk and milk products in liquid milk equivalents. Metric tons and kilograms are three year moving averages centered on the year shown. Milk consumption as food is less than total milk demand because of use for calves. Milk demand in 1996-98 for developing is 228 MMT, 318 MMT in developed.
Table 4: Trends in Nominal Prices of Feedgrain & Livestock Products
| |
Maize |
Beef |
Pork |
Poultry |
Milk |
|
(Current US$/metric ton) |
|||||
|
1980 |
126 |
2,760 |
2,212 |
1,082 |
1,312 |
|
1981 |
131 |
2,472 |
2,470 |
1,073 |
1,489 |
|
1982 |
108 |
2,390 |
2,669 |
1,023 |
1,410 |
|
1983 |
136 |
2,440 |
2,558 |
1,111 |
1,000 |
|
1984 |
136 |
2,273 |
2,157 |
1,225 |
906 |
|
1985 |
112 |
2,153 |
1,893 |
1,120 |
816 |
|
1986 |
88 |
2,094 |
2,969 |
1,254 |
910 |
|
1987 |
76 |
2,385 |
3,540 |
1,044 |
1,043 |
|
1988 |
107 |
2,517 |
3,774 |
1,241 |
1,683 |
|
1989 |
111 |
2,568 |
3,427 |
1,300 |
1,808 |
|
1990 |
109 |
2,563 |
3,920 |
1,206 |
1,293 |
|
1991 |
107 |
2,664 |
3,473 |
1,141 |
1,488 |
|
1992 |
104 |
2,455 |
3,178 |
1,157 |
1,712 |
|
1993 |
102 |
2,618 |
3,197 |
1,218 |
1,523 |
|
1994 |
108 |
2,333 |
2,984 |
1,227 |
1,544 |
|
1995 |
123 |
1,907 |
3,040 |
1,240 |
2,051 |
|
1996 |
165 |
1,785 |
3,089 |
1,350 |
1,959 |
|
1997 |
117 |
1,856 |
2,916 |
1,297 |
1,758 |
|
1998 |
102 |
1,726 |
2,497 |
1,388 |
1,701 |
|
1999 |
90 |
1,833 |
2,589 |
1,286 |
1,477 |
|
2000 |
88 |
1,935 |
2,680 |
1,237 |
1,850 |
|
2001 |
90 |
2,128 |
|
1,303 |
1,948 |
Sources: Maize: US #2 yellow, fob Gulf of Mexico. Source: IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.asp)
Beef: Australia/New Zealand frozen, U.S. import price. Source: IMF, same as above.
Pork: Pigmeat, United States export unit value. Source: FAOSTAT.
Poultry: USDA Avg. 12-City Broiler Price, Broiler Composite and Georgia Dock Price. Source: (http://www.cattle-fax.com/data/files/poultry/prices.xls)
Milk: Whole milk powder, f.o.b. Western Europe. After 1994, midpoint of prices reported by NZ Dairy Board. Sources: FAO Commodity Review and Outlook 1982-1991,
FAO Commodity Market Review 1995-2000, (http://www.ams.usda.gov/dairy/mncs/international/intpr2000.pdf)
Table 5: Trends in Real World Prices of Feedgrain and Livestock Products
| |
Maize |
Beef |
Pork |
Poultry |
Milk |
|
(Constant 1990 US$/metric ton) |
|||||
|
1980 |
191 |
4,186 |
3,354 |
1,640 |
1,990 |
|
1981 |
181 |
3,429 |
3,427 |
1,488 |
2,066 |
|
1982 |
141 |
3,120 |
3,485 |
1,336 |
1,841 |
|
1983 |
171 |
3,066 |
3,214 |
1,396 |
1,256 |
|
1984 |
165 |
2,753 |
2,613 |
1,483 |
1,097 |
|
1985 |
132 |
2,528 |
2,223 |
1,315 |
958 |
|
1986 |
101 |
2,406 |
3,411 |
1,441 |
1,045 |
|
1987 |
84 |
2,660 |
3,948 |
1,165 |
1,163 |
|
1988 |
115 |
2,715 |
4,071 |
1,339 |
1,816 |
|
1989 |
116 |
2,668 |
3,561 |
1,351 |
1,879 |
|
1990 |
109 |
2,563 |
3,920 |
1,206 |
1,293 |
|
1991 |
104 |
2,571 |
3,352 |
1,101 |
1,436 |
|
1992 |
98 |
2,312 |
2,994 |
1,090 |
1,613 |
|
1993 |
94 |
2,408 |
2,942 |
1,121 |
1,401 |
|
1994 |
97 |
2,102 |
2,689 |
1,106 |
1,391 |
|
1995 |
109 |
1,682 |
2,682 |
1,094 |
1,809 |
|
1996 |
142 |
1,544 |
2,673 |
1,168 |
1,695 |
|
1997 |
99 |
1,575 |
2,475 |
1,101 |
1,492 |
|
1998 |
85 |
1,447 |
2,094 |
1,164 |
1,426 |
|
1999 |
75 |
1,515 |
2,140 |
1,063 |
1,221 |
|
2000 |
71 |
1,564 |
2,166 |
1,000 |
1,495 |
|
2001 |
71 |
1,684 |
n.a. |
1,031 |
1,541 |
Sources: Maize: US #2 yellow, fob Gulf of Mexico. Source: IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.asp)
Beef: Australia/New Zealand frozen, U.S. import price. Source: IMF, same as above.
Pork: Pigmeat, United States export unit value. Source: FAOSTAT.
Poultry: USDA Avg. 12-City Broiler Price, Broiler Composite and Georgia Dock Price. Source: (http://www.cattle-fax.com/data/files/poultry/prices.xls)
Milk: Whole milk powder, f.o.b. Western Europe. After 1994, midpoint of prices reported by NZ Dairy Board. Sources: FAO Commodity Review and Outlook 1982-1991,
FAO Commodity Market Review 1995-2000, (http://www.ams.usda.gov/dairy/mncs/international/intpr2000.pdf)
All prices deflated by the U.S. GDP Implicit Price Deflator, base year 1990. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Table 6: Evolution of Livestock & Feed Price Ratios 1980-2000
|
|
Pork/ |
Poultry/ |
Pork/ |
Pork/ |
Beef/ |
|
1980/84 |
19.2 |
8.7 |
2.2 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
|
1985/89 |
32.7 |
12.3 |
2.6 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
|
1990/94 |
31.5 |
11.2 |
2.8 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
|
1995/99 |
24.3 |
11.4 |
2.2 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
|
2000 |
30.4 |
14.0 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
Source: Table 4 data divided annually and then averaged over 5 years (except 2000)
Table 7. The changing consumption share for meat and milk in different regions.
| |
|
1982/84 |
1996/98 |
2020 (projected) |
|
(percent of world consumption) |
||||
|
Meats |
China |
12% |
25% |
32% |
|
India |
2% |
2% |
3% |
|
|
Other East Asia |
1% |
1% |
0% |
|
|
Other South Asia |
1% |
1% |
2% |
|
|
Southeast Asia |
3% |
4% |
6% |
|
|
Latin America |
11% |
12% |
14% |
|
|
WANA |
4% |
3% |
4% |
|
|
SSA |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
|
Developing World |
36% |
53% |
65% |
|
|
Developed World |
64% |
47% |
35% |
|
|
Milk |
China |
1% |
2% |
4% |
|
India |
10% |
13% |
20% |
|
|
Other East Asia |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
|
Other South Asia |
3% |
5% |
6% |
|
|
Southeast Asia |
1% |
1% |
2% |
|
|
Latin America |
10% |
12% |
13% |
|
|
WANA |
6% |
6% |
6% |
|
|
SSA |
3% |
4% |
5% |
|
|
Developing World |
34% |
44% |
57% |
|
|
Developed World |
66% |
56% |
43% |
|
Source: C. Delgado, M. Rosegrant and S. Meijer. "Livestock to 2020: The Revolution Continues," paper presented at the World Brahman Congress, Rockhampton, Australia, April 16, 2002, based on historical FAO data and updated projections from the April 2002 version of IFPRI's IMPACT model.
Table 8. The changing consumption share of major meats and milk accounted for by developing countries.
| |
1982/84 |
1996/98 |
2020 (projected) |
|
(percent of world consumption) |
|||
|
Beef |
33% |
47% |
61% |
|
Pork |
37% |
56% |
67% |
|
Poultry |
34% |
51% |
64% |
|
Major meats |
36% |
53% |
65% |
|
Dairy (LME) |
34% |
44% |
57% |
Source: C. Delgado, M. Rosegrant and S. Meijer. "Livestock to 2020: The Revolution Continues, "paper presented at the World Brahman Congress, Rockhampton, Australia, April 16, 2002, based on historical FAO data and updated projections from the April 2002 version of IFPRI's IMPACT model.
Table 9. The changing use of cereals as feed.
| |
1982/84 |
1996/98 |
2020 (projected) |
|
(percent of world use) |
|||
|
China |
7% |
17% |
24% |
|
India |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
Other East Asia |
1% |
1% |
0% |
|
Other South Asia |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
Southeast Asia |
1% |
2% |
3% |
|
Latin America |
7% |
9% |
11% |
|
WANA |
4% |
5% |
6% |
|
SSA |
0% |
1% |
1% |
|
Developing World |
22% |
36% |
46% |
|
Developed World |
79% |
64% |
54% |
Source: C. Delgado, M. Rosegrant and S. Meijer. "Livestock to 2020: The Revolution Continues," paper presented at the World Brahman Congress, Rockhampton, Australia, April 16, 2002, based on historical FAO data and updated projections from the April 2002 version of IFPRI's IMPACT model.
Table 10: Projected change in real prices of major livestock commodities, 1977-2020.
|
|
(total percent change) |
|
Beef |
-3 |
|
Pig Meat |
-3 |
|
Sheep & Goat Meat |
-3 |
|
Poultry |
-3 |
|
Eggs |
-3 |
|
Milk |
-8 |
|
Feed Meals other than Fish Meal |
-1 |
Table 11: Changes in U.S. livestock and poultry productivity indicators, 1955-95
Animal Yield
|
Year |
Beef cattle |
Hogs |
Dairy |
Broilers |
Layers |
|
(lb beef/cow) |
(lb pork/sow) |
(lb milk/cow) |
(lb/bird) |
(eggs/layer/year) |
|
|
1955 |
590 |
788 |
5,842 |
3.07 |
192 |
|
1965 |
591 |
1,022 |
8,304 |
3.48 |
218 |
|
1975 |
546 |
1,167 |
10,360 |
3.76 |
232 |
|
1985 |
680 |
1,310 |
12,994 |
4.21 |
247 |
|
1995 |
723 |
1,503 |
16,451 |
4.67 |
253 |
Beef cattle yield: lbs of beef produced divided by the number of cows and heifers that have calved.
Hog yield: lbs of pork produced divided by the number of farrowing sows.
Labor Productivity
|
Year |
All farm |
All livestock |
Meat animals |
Milk cows |
Poultry |
|
1955 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
|
1965 |
1.90 |
1.92 |
1.47 |
2.05 |
2.73 |
|
1975 |
2.97 |
3.54 |
2.42 |
4.26 |
5.40 |
|
1985 |
5.17 |
7.29 |
4.53 |
12.84 |
11.53 |
Index of output per hour worked: 1955=1.00
Labor productivity indices for specific commodities are no long published after 1986.
Source: Fuglie, Narrod, and Neumeyer, 2000.
Table 12: Poultry Production, Consumption, Past and Projected Net Imports (1000 mt)
|
|
Japan |
Singapore |
Hong Kong |
Taiwan |
Malaysia |
South Korea |
Thailand |
Philippines |
|
|
Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1970-74 |
590 |
21 |
13 |
95 |
90 |
56 |
79 |
111 |
|
|
1980-84 |
1212 |
49 |
47 |
293 |
146 |
139 |
267 |
176 |
|
|
Ann. growth (%) |
7.5 |
8.8 |
13.7 |
11.9 |
5.0 |
95 |
13.0 |
4.7 |
|
Per Cap. Consumption |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1970-74 |
5.7 |
12 |
10.9 |
6.2 |
8.1 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
|
|
1980-84 |
11 |
31.2 |
21.2 |
15.8 |
10.4 |
3.5 |
4.9 |
3.5 |
|
|
Ann. growth (%) |
6.8 |
10.0 |
6.9 |
9.8 |
2.5 |
7.5 |
8.8 |
2.3 |
|
Tot. Consumption |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1970-74 |
613 |
26 |
45 |
95 |
91 |
56 |
79 |
111 |
|
|
1980-84 |
1307 |
77 |
111 |
293 |
151 |
139 |
240 |
176 |
|
|
Ann. growth (%) |
7.9 |
11.5 |
9.4 |
11.9 |
5.2 |
9.5 |
11.8 |
4.7 |
|
GNP per capita |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ave. 1980-84 (US$) |
9,697 |
6,036 |
5,478 |
2,623 |
1,841 |
1,806 |
755 |
708 |
|
|
Ave. growth (%) |
4.7 |
7.6 |
8.1 |
5.5 |
4.4 |
6.6 |
4.0 |
2.3 |
|
Prices |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ave. 1980-84 (U.S. $/kg) |
1.31 |
1.32 |
1.07 |
1.32 |
na |
1.91 |
1.24 |
1.94 |
|
|
Real Price % change ** |
-30 |
-17 |
-14 |
-48 |
na |
-44 |
-26 |
-15 |
|
|
NPC (1980-84) *** |
-1 |
0 |
-24 |
-1 |
na |
45 |
-8 |
46 |
|
Net Imports |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Past |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1970-74 |
23 |
4 |
32 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
1980-84 |
95 |
28 |
64 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
-27 |
0 |
|
Projected |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1990 |
0 |
46 |
86 |
1 |
7 |
-4 |
-52 |
0 |
|
|
1995 |
0 |
63 |
90 |
1 |
7 |
-2 |
-40 |
0 |
From Nelson et al (1986)
* -1965-85, from World Bank World Development Report, 1986; ** 1970/74 - 1980/84; *** - The Nominal Protection Coefficient is the percent by which the domestic price is greater or less than the border price. Japan, 1981-83. Source of import unit values - FAO, Trade Yearbook, various issues. Domestic prices are wholesale except Taiwan and Thailand which are producer prices.
Table 13: Private Sector Poultry Breeding Research Programs and Franchises
| |
Africa/Middle East |
Asia/Australia |
South America/the Caribbean |
North America/Europe |
World |
|
Poultry breeding research programs |
1 |
4 |
1 |
8 |
14 |
|
Franchises |
30 |
66 |
26 |
49 |
171 |
|
Placement of improved breeding stock by multinational companies (1997)* |
192 |
59,803 |
46,856 |
113,526 |
220,377 |
|
Estimated placement of breeding stock with local breeds (1997)* |
3,790 |
12,049 |
2,598 |
23,333 |
41,770 |
Source: Surveys by Narrod and Fuglie 2000 and industry sources; * in ‘000’s
Table 14: Global Animal Health Sales, 1995
|
Animal Species |
Nutritional feed additives |
Medicinal feed additives |
Biologicals |
Pharmaceuticals |
Total |
|
Cattle |
1,025 |
440 |
610 |
2,475 |
4,550 |
|
Pigs |
1,100 |
730 |
285 |
1,120 |
3,235 |
|
Sheep |
130 |
95 |
145 |
485 |
855 |
|
Poultry |
1,065 |
765 |
500 |
240 |
2,570 |
|
Pets/other |
470 |
60 |
600 |
2,030 |
3,160 |
|
Total |
3,790 |
2,090 |
2,140 |
6,350 |
14,370 |
Figures are for 1995 in million of US$
Source: Wood Mackenzie cited in James 1997
Table 15: Roles of the public and private sectors in animal research by technology area
|
Animal technology area |
Private sectora |
Public sectora |
|
Breeding and genetics |
** |
*** |
|
Disease protection and nutrition |
*** |
*** |
|
Mechanization |
*** |
* |
|
Management and economics |
* |
** |
|
Externalities (pollution reduction & food safety) |
* |
*** |
a stars indicate relative emphasis on research by sector: *** major focus of research; ** important but secondary focus of research; * little research conducted.
Source: Fuglie, Narrod, and Neuymeyer, (2000)
